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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 7, 2017.
Below is the weigh in results from earlier today.
Jennifer Maia (123.3) vs. Aga Niedźwiedź (124.6) – for flyweight title
Kaline Medeiros (115.8) vs. Mackenzie Dern (115.9)
Janaisa Morandin (115.4) vs. Kinberly Novaes (121.8)*
Vanessa Porto (127.6)* vs. Milana Dudieva (125.6)
Amy Montenegro (117.6)* vs. Virna Jandiroba (114.3)
Amber Brown (106.3)* vs. Tessa Simpson (105.4)
Christine Ferea (125.7) vs. Karina Rodríguez (124.7)
Kay Hansen (114.4) vs. Emilee Prince (115.5)
* – Novaes, Porto, Montenegro and Brown were fined 25 percent of their respective fight purses for missing weight
Maybe we get lines on what, 4 fights?
Best invicta in a little while.. for sure anxious to see lines
Should be at least 4.. brown Simpson 6 fights down is still a goodie
6 fights capped on 888
lost big on porto v neid. would be big on porto again in rematch. neid is a bad striker. dont think she likes being hit. think porto finishes in a rematch, especially if it was over 5. neid gonna be able to take maia down with her shot easy after seeing roxy do it last fight. she shown better ttd in other fights? would be all over maia to finish r4 and r5 if i had the option. neid seriously outclassed on the feet.
man i wanted to fade dudieva again but not at that price.
Invicta FC 26: Maia vs. Niedzwiedz
DECEMBER 8, 2017
Scottish Rite Temple | Kansas City, Missouri
Main Card - (UFC Fight Pass, 8PM ET)
Jennifer Maia +115
Agnieszka Niedzwiedz -155
Kaline Medeiros +400
Mackenzie Dern -600
Janaisa Morandin -170
Kinberly Novaes +130
Milana Dudieva +150
Vanessa Porto -190
Virna Jandiroba -305
Amy Montenegro +225
Tessa Simpson -175
Amber Brown +135
didn't morandin make a pretty good account of herself against souza? or am i imagining that?
Kaline Medeiros is a very tough fighter and well rounded, no pushover for Mackenzie Dern even at 38 years old. Medeiros fought for the strawweight title not long ago and gave a good account of herself. Dern might very well get a submission, but they gave her a much more difficult opponent than I thought for her Invicta FC debut, so with no over/unders or props it's dog or pass. I made a small .5 unit bet fading Dern with her opponent at +400. Also made a 1u bet on Amber Brown as a +135 underdog. She has great takedowns and wrestling, and if she doesn't make a mistake or get caught in a submission, she can use her size here over this atomweight opponent to grind out a victory. Went small on Amy Montenegro at +225 vs the newcomer she is facing with a dubious undefeated record. Let's see if this Brazilian prospect is for real. Also 1u at +115 on Jennifer Maia in the main event to retain the flyweight title vs challenger Aga Niedzwiedz. Aga's striking is kind of meh and Maia has fought five rounds many times where Aga has never gone the full championship rounds.
Maia vs Neidz
I just rewatched Neidz vs Porto, I thought Porto won that fight 29-28 and she was coming on strong in the 3rd, Neidz looked broken. Neidz was pressured and out struck on the feet vs Porto, wasn't impressed with her striking. Neidz does have some really nice TD's, they're explosive and well timed. On the ground she looks solid, strong on top and active on the bottom, looked good vs Porto who is a blackbelt.
Maia is for sure the better striker and the more experienced fighter but her TDD is garbage. I'm tempted by Maia at dog money but I don't know if I can trust her TDD, I have no doubt Neidz will get TD's in this fight. Porto took Maia down at will, Roxanne even took her down (cringe). Neidz will be at a disadvantage on the feet, Maia will pressure her and throw a lot more volume. Maia is the more diverse, powerful and experienced striker.
Maia is basically a veteran at this point, she's been a pro for eight years and she's gotten a lot of experience against solid competition. I think that experience will be the difference here, Maia is the champion, she's fought the better competition and she's a member of the 5 round club. Neidz should already have an L on her record, Porto broke her, I think Maia can do the same.
Maia has also been out for 15 months but she's been training the whole time.
Maia is 29 years of age
Maia is a BJJ blackbelt
Maia been 5 rounds x2
Maia has twice as many fights (not inclduing Muay Thai)
Maia is on a 5 fight win streak
Neidz is 22 years of age
Neidz is undefeated
Neidz BJJ brownbelt
Neidz never been 5 rounds
100% she did, she was close to a tko against souza SEVERAL times, just couldn't keep it standing. and that was short notice for her as a HUGE dog.
just watched some tape on novaes, i'm NOT too impressed. she got toooootally outgrappled by tiburcio. wings wild hooks on the feet. she also missed weight by 5+ pounds here.
i really like morandin -165 right now.. i won't go huge cause it's some new girls we don't know ton about. but i'm taking this for sure. first bet made, 1.65u morandin -165
k, yea, my kneejerk cap of the titlefight was "60-40 niedwiedz, i don't wanna see -150 +150 range" -- and that's exactly what it is, of course.
i went back and read all my notes (no time to rewatch shit, but i remember it well and my notes/pbp helped) -- porto easily could've beaten niedzwiedz. bonehead move in rd 2 cost her the round and she took rd 3. niedzwiedz was slowing down. and this is 5 rounds. granted, she's young and could be improving, but maia's more proven, has shown she has excellent 5 round cardio (dominated 4/5 against roxy).. it's a damned pick'em so i'm happily taking +155 on maia. 1u on this one
simpson is a scrappy little grappler. i like her. and brown gets caught ins oooo many subs.. but man, she's so much bigger/stronger than tessa.. i'm aware she missed by 0.3 pounds, but.. at least this time when i lose $ on brown it's as a dog and not a -2xx favorite! playing brown small +135.
should be a really fun scramblefest.
simpson commited to being full time fighter recently. used to work part time. also first time using a nutritionist which she said is really helping
I'm on Maia and Kaline #FadeHype, wasn't impressed with Aga in her last fight and I think Maia is too much for her right now, the striking is gona be in Maia's favor by a large margin imo