Invicta FC 26 Maia vs Niedzwiedz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 7, 2017.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
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  2. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Below is the weigh in results from earlier today.

    Jennifer Maia (123.3) vs. Aga Niedźwiedź (124.6) – for flyweight title
    Kaline Medeiros (115.8) vs. Mackenzie Dern (115.9)
    Janaisa Morandin (115.4) vs. Kinberly Novaes (121.8)*
    Vanessa Porto (127.6)* vs. Milana Dudieva (125.6)
    Amy Montenegro (117.6)* vs. Virna Jandiroba (114.3)
    Amber Brown (106.3)* vs. Tessa Simpson (105.4)
    Christine Ferea (125.7) vs. Karina Rodríguez (124.7)
    Kay Hansen (114.4) vs. Emilee Prince (115.5)

    * – Novaes, Porto, Montenegro and Brown were fined 25 percent of their respective fight purses for missing weight
     
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  3. edhan

    edhan Green Belt

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    Maybe we get lines on what, 4 fights?
     
  4. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  5. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Best invicta in a little while.. for sure anxious to see lines
     
  7. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Should be at least 4.. brown Simpson 6 fights down is still a goodie
     
  8. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    6 fights capped on 888
     
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  9. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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  10. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    lost big on porto v neid. would be big on porto again in rematch. neid is a bad striker. dont think she likes being hit. think porto finishes in a rematch, especially if it was over 5. neid gonna be able to take maia down with her shot easy after seeing roxy do it last fight. she shown better ttd in other fights? would be all over maia to finish r4 and r5 if i had the option. neid seriously outclassed on the feet.
     
  11. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    man i wanted to fade dudieva again but not at that price.
     
  12. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Invicta FC 26: Maia vs. Niedzwiedz
    DECEMBER 8, 2017
    Scottish Rite Temple | Kansas City, Missouri

    Main Card - (UFC Fight Pass, 8PM ET)


    Flyweight Title

    Jennifer Maia +115
    Agnieszka Niedzwiedz -155
    -

    Kaline Medeiros +400
    Mackenzie Dern -600

    Janaisa Morandin -170
    Kinberly Novaes +130

    Milana Dudieva +150
    Vanessa Porto -190

    Virna Jandiroba -305
    Amy Montenegro +225
    -

    Tessa Simpson -175
    Amber Brown +135
     
  13. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    didn't morandin make a pretty good account of herself against souza? or am i imagining that?
     
  14. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Kaline Medeiros is a very tough fighter and well rounded, no pushover for Mackenzie Dern even at 38 years old. Medeiros fought for the strawweight title not long ago and gave a good account of herself. Dern might very well get a submission, but they gave her a much more difficult opponent than I thought for her Invicta FC debut, so with no over/unders or props it's dog or pass. I made a small .5 unit bet fading Dern with her opponent at +400. Also made a 1u bet on Amber Brown as a +135 underdog. She has great takedowns and wrestling, and if she doesn't make a mistake or get caught in a submission, she can use her size here over this atomweight opponent to grind out a victory. Went small on Amy Montenegro at +225 vs the newcomer she is facing with a dubious undefeated record. Let's see if this Brazilian prospect is for real. Also 1u at +115 on Jennifer Maia in the main event to retain the flyweight title vs challenger Aga Niedzwiedz. Aga's striking is kind of meh and Maia has fought five rounds many times where Aga has never gone the full championship rounds.
     
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  15. Zee's MMA Subscriber

    Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Maia vs Neidz

    I just rewatched Neidz vs Porto, I thought Porto won that fight 29-28 and she was coming on strong in the 3rd, Neidz looked broken. Neidz was pressured and out struck on the feet vs Porto, wasn't impressed with her striking. Neidz does have some really nice TD's, they're explosive and well timed. On the ground she looks solid, strong on top and active on the bottom, looked good vs Porto who is a blackbelt.

    Maia is for sure the better striker and the more experienced fighter but her TDD is garbage. I'm tempted by Maia at dog money but I don't know if I can trust her TDD, I have no doubt Neidz will get TD's in this fight. Porto took Maia down at will, Roxanne even took her down (cringe). Neidz will be at a disadvantage on the feet, Maia will pressure her and throw a lot more volume. Maia is the more diverse, powerful and experienced striker.

    Maia is basically a veteran at this point, she's been a pro for eight years and she's gotten a lot of experience against solid competition. I think that experience will be the difference here, Maia is the champion, she's fought the better competition and she's a member of the 5 round club. Neidz should already have an L on her record, Porto broke her, I think Maia can do the same.

    Maia has also been out for 15 months but she's been training the whole time.
    Maia is 29 years of age
    Maia is a BJJ blackbelt
    Maia been 5 rounds x2
    Maia has twice as many fights (not inclduing Muay Thai)
    Maia is on a 5 fight win streak

    Neidz is 22 years of age
    Neidz is undefeated
    Neidz BJJ brownbelt
    Neidz never been 5 rounds
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017
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  16. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    100% she did, she was close to a tko against souza SEVERAL times, just couldn't keep it standing. and that was short notice for her as a HUGE dog.

    just watched some tape on novaes, i'm NOT too impressed. she got toooootally outgrappled by tiburcio. wings wild hooks on the feet. she also missed weight by 5+ pounds here.

    i really like morandin -165 right now.. i won't go huge cause it's some new girls we don't know ton about. but i'm taking this for sure. first bet made, 1.65u morandin -165
     
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  17. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    k, yea, my kneejerk cap of the titlefight was "60-40 niedwiedz, i don't wanna see -150 +150 range" -- and that's exactly what it is, of course.

    i went back and read all my notes (no time to rewatch shit, but i remember it well and my notes/pbp helped) -- porto easily could've beaten niedzwiedz. bonehead move in rd 2 cost her the round and she took rd 3. niedzwiedz was slowing down. and this is 5 rounds. granted, she's young and could be improving, but maia's more proven, has shown she has excellent 5 round cardio (dominated 4/5 against roxy).. it's a damned pick'em so i'm happily taking +155 on maia. 1u on this one
     
  18. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    simpson is a scrappy little grappler. i like her. and brown gets caught ins oooo many subs.. but man, she's so much bigger/stronger than tessa.. i'm aware she missed by 0.3 pounds, but.. at least this time when i lose $ on brown it's as a dog and not a -2xx favorite! playing brown small +135.

    should be a really fun scramblefest.
     
  19. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    simpson commited to being full time fighter recently. used to work part time. also first time using a nutritionist which she said is really helping
     
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  20. MixedMartialFarts

    MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

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    I'm on Maia and Kaline #FadeHype, wasn't impressed with Aga in her last fight and I think Maia is too much for her right now, the striking is gona be in Maia's favor by a large margin imo
     

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