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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.
I just did some of the basic math stuff looking over rr's/cr's and taking their last three races from pp's list and averaging them together like you mentioned is a good baseline to start with. I went with last three races if available, if not I took the last two with a few of them. Principe, Zeke, Ciaran only had too if I'm reading correctly.
You mentioned Lone Sailor and some veteran stuff that I wouldn't have thought about so thank you for that. Knew about blinders but didn't know just how they played into why/how it affected performances. That is really good stuff.
What I also like from the basic accumulation and averaging of the pp's and cr's is that Lone Sailor sits 3rd overall for that math, with an avg of 231. I have a note from our convos that 3-5% would indicate a drop in class, this doesn't affect Sailor b/c the leader of all the avg's, Wonder Gadot, who also happened to be entered into the filly race I mentioned the other day, sat only 2.6% ahead of her with 233.6, 2nd was Kowboy Karma at 231.6, only slightly ahead of Sailor.
Also going by the 10pt rule of thumb for power ratings, Sailor sits within those 10pts of the leader Instilled Regard (Regard at 138.6, Sailor at 129.4) so that's obviously a good thing as well for him.
Anyway that's what I've gotten done so far, he does seem like an intriguing play at first look for me, too, just based on the basics I've looked into, compared to his odds as well.
Talking about ?'s for one of the favorites, Wonder Gadot, hasn't raced against any males in her career yet. That's gotta be something to consider, I'd assume.
I also think you mentioned this to me before, @Sharkey, I'll go back itt and check again, but I'm pretty sure you said to look out for a horse that ran way better than it had previously in its last race, to possibly have a letdown in their next race and run more back to form, in the next coming race/s.
I noticed that with Instilled Regard, he was running 87/83/85 in his three previous before exploding up to 100 his last time out. I don't know if he could just be young and coming into form, but I thought about what you said prior and that could apply to Regard here, esp him being only 4/1.
Yes. Nice job, Blunt. That is one of the things that would be concerning about Instilled Regard for sure, especially if we were to go back and look at the last race he ran in earning that figure. That was a fast race and much faster than anything he ever showed before. But it was also a tough race on him physically with him being bumped repeatedly on both sides during the stretch run. There was also something visually with that performance of his that is concerning too, and that's the way he finished the race. If you were to watch it you can see him making a big move around the turn and looking like he's just going to blow right by the leader. Yet he didn't. He stalled and flattened out coming off the turn, and his stride also shortened up significantly in the stretch run. He was also veering left and right in the stretch as well which contributed to some of the bumping that was going on.
Now there are things in his PP's that alleviate some of that concern for sure, that being, like you said, he is a young and developing horse, which may mean that was just a natural progression of improvement for him. The owners also paid over $1 million for him last spring, so the expectations were that he'd be a high class animal capable of putting forth big efforts like that too. He also made a pretty significantly middle move in that race into a pretty good pace, so that might explain some of the flattening out he did late and why he couldn't sustain his run late. And that effort came against two really good two year-olds in Solomini and McKinzie as well. Also just judging his workout times since then also suggests that the effort may not have been too hard on him. But it's still something to be concerned about regardless.
There's also the curious move by the trainer sending him all the way across the country (horse's first time shipping) to run in this race when he was co competitive against two of the top young horses on the west coast. We have to ask ourselves why is the trainer making that move with him, right? Seems to me that the trainer might be looking for an easier race for the horse after his last one even if it's across the country. He could have just as easily kept the horse on the west coast and ran in the Sham Stakes last weekend over a track that the horse is familiar with and had won on before. Instead he's sending him out to New Orleans to try a track for the first time against what I assume he was hoping for an easier field than what is showing up in the race.
This is a tough call with Instilled Regard. If he runs a similar race than last time he's a very strong contender to win and maybe even the most likely winner. But is that what we're going to get tomorrow? I'm 50/50 on that myself, so I really have no idea. A win wouldn't surprise me. Nor would a result with him finishing off the board.
The expectations are that Wonder Gadot will be running in the filly race on Saturday at the same track, so I really didn't involve her in my capping at all. Ciaron I believe is also expected to scratch out of the race as well from what I understand.
I also talked about pace handicapping with you a couple of days and then also touched on how the post position draw can influence the early pace. Take note on how much speed is signed on for this race and where they will be leaving the gates from. Now look at the style and early speed numbers of the horses who drew an outside post. #10 horse is an E/P 6 (Instilled Regard). The #12 is as E 6 (Principe Guilherme), and if Ciaron does in fact scratch then he'll be breaking from the #11 post. The #13 is an E/P 8. And then the #15, who'll get in with a scratch, is an E/P 8. These horses best races came when they were either on the lead early or sitting just off it. There's also other early speed types in this race as well with the #4 and #6 horses who also do their best running on/near the early lead. I mentioned to you how early speed drawing outside can increase the early pace just because those horses need to get going early just to avoid getting caught wide on the first turn. I also mentioned how two early speed types drawing close together can also prompt the early pace as well. On paper, this race here is a great example of both of those things. To me, this race looks to have a ton of early pace signed on for the race, which would then obviously be beneficial to those horses than are able to sit off the pace and then come with a late run.
Now take a quick look at the pace figures listed for Principe Guilherme, who is the morning line favourite. His first race he was on the lead through really pace figures that were -5 and -11 compared to par. His second race he saw pace figures of -7 and then -6 in a race in which he was given an easy early lead (1+ length advantage all around means he wasn't being pressured at any point by another horse). He won both races and won so by daylight in each, so that's a positive for him. But he also did so under pace conditions that were very much to his benefit and also against horses much weaker than he'll be facing tomorrow. If he wants the early lead tomorrow he's going to have to do a lot more running in the early race to get it considering the other speed signed on and where he is drawn. If the plan is to try to get him to relax early and sit behind horses then that's something that he has yet to do. Maybe he can do that, as he is an impressive runner. But again, until he proves that he can sit behind other horses during much faster early pace against much better horses than he's used to we won't know for sure. That's the big question with this guy here.
The potential pace of this race, at least the way it looks on paper, is also a plus for Lone Sailor as well, who we've both determined is pretty good even without this positive move to having blinkers added. He's a guy who's shown that he likes to sit either mid pack or even further back in the early running and then come late with his run. That could play very well in this race. Lone Sailor also has a lot of excuses for his last race too when you watch it. Going into the first turn of his last race there was another horse in the race that tossed his rider, which Lone Sailor immediately reacted to and caused him to veer out while getting unsettled. Then that riderless horse veered out and almost hit Lone Sailor as well causing that one to veer out even a little more. Lone Sailor was pissed off at that point and started tossing his head. He eventually relaxed down the backstretch, though, but then he found more trouble around the far turn when he got caught between two horses and had to steady and wait some, which pushed him back into last at that point. When they came off the turn last (or close to it) looked like where Lone Sailor would finish, and I don't think too many would have blamed him if he decided to quit running at that point. He didn't, though. He came flying late with those long strides of his in the stretch coming from 11th off the turn all the way up to 5th at the line. He was beaten decisively at the end by 7+ lengths. But he had plenty of excuses while doing so, and at the same time showed some very positive signs in the process. He was moving quite a bit faster than anybody else in that race at the end. He's also entering a race tomorrow at the Fair Grounds, which has, if not the longest stretch run in the US, one of them at least. A long striding off the pace type like him should love the stretch run at this track provided he gets the room to use his stride late.
With my uncertainties regarding both Instilled Regard and Principe Guilherme I can see myself using one or the other as a defensive play in the exacta because either one could win this race for sure if they are able to answer the questions I have of them. Maybe play the race like so;
Lone Sailor to win and show
????? over Lone Sailor, Kowboy Karma in a pair of defensive exactas
Do you have a preference between Instilled Regard or Principe Guilherme, @BluntTrauma21? I don't really have one myself, and the numbers I did for this race don't help me out there either as there both very close on them (tiny, tiny edge on them to Principe Guilherme, but basically nothing). If you have a preference there with one or the other then I'll use it.
Think I'm going this way in the G3 Lecomte;
- $5 to win and $10 to show on the #1 Lone Sailor
- $2 exacta box with the #1 Lone Sailor, #5 Kowboy Karma, and #12 Principe Guilherme
The finish of Instilled Regards' last race is bugging me too much with the way he flattened out late after looking like he'd go right on by, the way he was veering in and out in the stretch, and with the way he kept switching between lead legs late. All the signs of a very tired horse, so I'll try to beat him completely today considering he has to ship across country (for the 1st time) after that effort and will be a short price. He can win, though, for sure.
The #6 America's Tale (8/1 morning line) looks quite interesting at first glance in that Silverbulletbay race for fillies that Blunt mentioned before.
I kinda want to play against the known quantities (and 3 shortest prices) we've seen so far from these recently turned 3 year-old girls who have ran in races like the BC Juvenile Fillies as I think they're a little lacking. Thought that both before the BC and didn't see much in that race to persuade me otherwise. This race looks primed for a new, fresh face to come along and take it, and that #6 horse looks like she could be the one. Big class test for her, but she's in great form having won her last two by daylight. She also had what is by far the fastest figure in the race with that 100 two back (next highest is 94). And if the race plays out like it looks like it could on paper, she should sit that ideal stalking trip tracking outside the stretch out sprinter who's got to be on go early (#11 Noblame).
Any thoughts having looked at the race yourself @BluntTrauma21? Like I said, I only gave the race a once over so far.
It's sunny and clear at Aqueduct today because of course it is. Lord Gamblor is just rubbing it in right now.
You broke this one down way more than I could ever dream of doing at this point. I'm following those plays, thank you for running me through your capping process, very interesting and insightful as always, my friend.
I'll try to take a look at the filly race some more as well and hopefully get some useful info and get your opinion on it before I play anything.
Like how the PP's for that La Verdad race was a good example to show you how a big race can produce a regressive race right after, the PP's for this filly race can show you how good that pair up angle (3 pts or less between two races on the speed figures) can be as they're littered with examples of improvement after doing so.
At quick glance, unsurprisingly I'm with you on America's Tale for the silverbulletday. Several scratches here, but most seem to have been longshots with not too much of a chance to beat the top ladies in this race by the looks of it.
I don't know if this is a good thing to start with, would like your feedback on this Shark, but I've made it kind of a habit to combine the last 3 rr's and cr's together and do the math to see where the horses stand in that 3-5pt area. Then I take the power ratings and list them to see which horses are within or close to that 10pt cutoff and kind of combine them to get a preliminary look at the horses involved.
America's Tale is right there in power rating, sits a bit behind the front runners in Gadot and Blonde Bomber in avg rr/cr's but then again no other horse is within a few pts of them other than Heavenly Love who is also at short odds. America's Tale looks like she has some solid things going for her and several of her ratings are right up there with the favorites despite having much better odds. Looking for a fresh face, I definitely like her to be right up there with the others from a quickish overlook of it.
I'm actually kind of liking Missive, speed ratings getting better, used to the distance, hot trainer and jockey atm, same jockey as her previous two, I know Bravo's name so he must be one of the better jockeys out there right now, but not sure if these are as big of a deal as the horse itself. Like you said, it's the horse at the end of the day, no matter who's training or riding her.
Still, 15-1 is nice odds, still having a bit of trouble with telling the difference in the class of races sometimes, I think her last was a claiming race so this must be a step up, but she's being ran within the month which means she's gotta be pretty fresh. Good workout a couple weeks back by the looks of it, ran 7 of 104 if I'm not mistaken.
I'm gonna obv defer to you Shark, but I like what I'm seeing from her on paper to possibly put in a nice effort at longer odds.
Look at you thinking all creatively and shit only a few days after getting started. Haha. That's awesome. Absolutely, Blunt. Now I wouldn't begin and end my capping with combining the numbers like that because unfortunately this game is not so simple. It'll pick winners for you at times, but is very likely a losing proposition in the end. But to help you narrow down the field some then absolutely, something like that can definitely work. It's really great you're thinking like that too, because you're starting to get some ideas on how to look at races that very few if any others are doing. That's a big key to this game (finding ways to look for value where others aren't looking), and some advanced stuff that I probably would have recommend you try to do eventually. But you're way ahead of me once again because, well, you're a natural at this.
If you're with me on America's Tale then I'm also with you on Missive, as she was one of the ones that had appeal to me earlier when I looked at the PP's as well. I like the fact that she's going into this race having paired up her last two races as well in addition to the positive things you noticed. She also looks to have enough early tactical speed to find a good position early in the race, which has the appearance on paper of being won from the first flight of horses. Think you're going to need to be sitting somewhat close in the early running to have a chance to win this one and she can be (maybe sitting just behind the lead few). To me, she looks like a prime candidate to show a "jump up" in performance from what she's been running since she is one of the few that haven't done it yet over her first few races. She's a very intriguing longshot to me as well. A win may be a reach, but she's a longshot anyways. But to grab a piece and hit the board? I can absolutely see that with her just based on what her page reads.
What do you think about this @BluntTrauma21?
$5 to win on America's Tale
$8 to show on Missive
The amounts don't matter much. Might be my new found OCD coming up with those numbers since I'm going to be in on the Lecomte for $27, which, with the $13 here, brings me to a nice round number of $40. But do you like those plays? Or you thinking of trying for more here with exactas or something?
Oh and Blunt, the race she and America's Tale are coming out of was an optional claiming race. Basically the same as an allowance race since those two (and maybe nobody else in the race) wouldn't have been put up for claim in the race. You're right in saying this race today is a big class test for both of them, though.
Love it, feeling good abut America's Tale from everything you've mentioned, just played it the same way with Missive to show. I have a good feeling for today, hopefully that plays out later.
Thanks yeah I am just trying to find an early look combining those numbers along with the power ratings to see what horse should be ranked where at first look. Then go from there with some more advanced stuff once we get there and I get some more lessons under my belt. Trying to pay more attention to workouts, pairing the speeds, that bounce theory you mentioned, but I'm getting ahead of myself, for sure, haha.
Btw do you have any links to the races? I have to call and get tvg back now I gotta go try to find a stream but haven't been able to find one? Any legal ones you know of?
Ah shit. No, I'm not sure where you can find a stream, bud. I just looked at the track's page and they don't have one. At least as far as I can see. Couldn't find one with a quick look anywhere else either. Do you have a racebook account by chance that shows the races? Or know of a racebook that shows the races and also allows you to open an account without a deposit? You still have 1.5 hours to do so if you can.
Thanks, yeah I'll check to see if I can find one of those books. One sticks out to me, not sure if I'm allowed to sign up tho, b/c the US sucks when it comes to gambling and this site might not allow Us customers. Maybe i can get an otb stream or something, too. Gonna try tho, found another stream that might find it. Called "at the races" which I've seen before, think there's a good chance they'll show them.
Well, I'd hate for you to miss out on the first race that you'd get to see live after having done some capping for it. The races from the Fair Grounds have always been tough to find, though, unlike most tracks who have no problem showing their streams online. Good luck man. I would hook you up with my site, but I'm almost 100% sure it's restricted to us Canadian folks (it's called HPI if you do want to give it a try).