Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I just did something really dumb by playing a really small trifecta box using the #6, #7, #8 and #9 horses in race 8 here. Don't have any PP's for the race (just the Brisnet power play report), and don't really have any reasoning behind it beyond just their post position draws since it's also a one turn sprint race.

 

[Sharkey]

Numbers for the Derby prep that is taking place at the Fair Grounds in a couple of hours;

==========

Race 9 (G2 Risen Star)

1- 478.7
2- 497.5 Noble Indy 5/1 **
3- 494.6 Givemeaminit 15/1 *
4- 470.9
5- 497.9 Instilled Regard 8/5 ***
6- 475.6
7- 455.9
9- 507.0 Principe Guilherme 7/2 ****
10- 462.7

==========

 

[Sharkey]

Numbers for the Derby prep that is taking place at the Fair Grounds in a couple of hours;

==========

Race 9 (G2 Risen Star)

1- 478.7
2- 497.5 Noble Indy 5/1 **
3- 494.6 Givemeaminit 15/1 *
4- 470.9
5- 497.9 Instilled Regard 8/5 ***
6- 475.6
7- 455.9
9- 507.0 Principe Guilherme 7/2 ****
10- 462.7

==========

Thinking a $2 exacta box here with the #2, #3, and #9. Then four separate $1 trifectas with the #5 keyed over the #2 and #3 in both orders, and then also keyed over the #3 and #9 in both orders. Then I'll focus on the #3 is straight wagers for the race. Probably $2/$4/$4 across the board with him.

I have a $10 Derby future bet on Instilled Regard that I made last weekend, so I really don't want to try to beat him out completely here even if he goes off at very short odds.

 

[Sharkey]

Okay, I'm in with these play for the Risen Star;

- $2 exacta box with the #2, #3, and #9
- four $2 trifectas with #5 / #2, #3 / #2, #3 and then again #5 / #3, #9 / #3, #9 (defensive plays basically, but with a price included)
- six $1 supers with #9 / #2, #3, #5 / #2, #3, #5 / #2, #3, #5
- #3 Gimmeaminit across the board for $2/$5/$7

$40 in total. As long as Gimmeaminit runs a good race and hits the board at long odds then I should make out okay on the race.

 

[Sharkey]

Didn't do numbers for it, but I'm playing the #2 horse small to win and place ($2/$4 degenerate play) here in race 7 at the Fair Grounds.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm playing a huge longshot at 35/1 here with the #11 horse to place and show (just $2 each) in race 8 at the Fair Grounds. It's likely not nearly good enough, but does have the E2 angle going for it (and a couple of other things), so I'm betting that angle blindly pretty much.

 

[Sharkey]

Dumb horse. Dumb me for backing it.

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, 21/1 to win and 41/1 finishes 2nd in the Risen Star. Payoffs are going to be huge for whoever had them, which wasn't me.

 

[Sharkey]

Craziness. The exacta paid over 300/1, the trifecta was about 1700/1, and the super was over 4000/1.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm on the #3 Whiskey Sour to win & place here in race 1 at Mahoning Valley.

 

[Sharkey]

Numbers for a couple of stakes races taking place later on today at Oaklawn over an off track (which I tried to factor into the equation), including one of them being a Derby prep race;

==========

Race 8 (G3 Razorback);

1- 526.4 Untrapped 9/2 ***
2- 500.8
3- 492.4
4- 476.5
5- 514.9 Leofric 9/2 *
6- 497.5
7- 538.7 Shotgun Kowboy 12/1 ****
8- 487.7
9- 491.4
10- 519.1 Futile 6/1 **
11- 477.1

==========

Race 9 (G3 Southwest);

1- 494.2 My Boy Jack 12/1 ****
2- 465.9
4- 512.2 Mourinho 2/1 *****
5- 459.4
6- 479.3
7- 489.7 Retirement Fund 15/1 **
8- 456.3
9- 424.4
10- 485.5 Combatant 6/1 *
11- 491.6 Ezmosh 12/1 ***

==========

 

[Sharkey]

The #5 Rockford for me here in race 7 at Aqueduct at anything other than him being the favourite (currently 3rd choice at 7/2). Didn't do numbers for this race, but he'd be tops I'm sure and maybe by a fairly significant margin. Also has a great off track record, which is what he gets here.

Just looking to play a race or two while waiting for those 2 stakes races from Oaklawn really.

 

[Sharkey]

That turd better have hung on for 2nd.

 

[Sharkey]

That's close. That's really close. Ugh.

 

[Sharkey]

Dead heat for 2nd. Meh. Better than nothing I guess.

 

[Sharkey]

Up $2 for the day so far, so I'm putting that on the #1 horse, Foreset, to place in race 8 at Aqueduct. He's a very likeable sort who, while he may be outmatched here, is usually going to give his all and will scrap til the end if he is in a position to win. Currently 30/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Settle down with a 1/2 horse barely beating a 59/1 shot, track announcer.

 

[Sharkey]

This #4 Three Cords looks okay if they're going to let her go off at the 10/1 she currently is in race 7 at Oaklawn.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, why not. As long as she gets out of the gate good she should be up front on the rail, which seems the place to be so far today at this track. She may just have too much naturally early speed for the rest of these girls.

 

[Sharkey]

Faded late after getting outside pressure on the lead. Oh well.