Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

The #1 horse has won each of the last four races today at Oaklawn. The other winners today at the track also road the rail along the backstretch.

 

[Sharkey]

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Race 8 (G3 Razorback);

1- 526.4 Untrapped 9/2 ***
2- 500.8
3- 492.4
4- 476.5
5- 514.9 Leofric 9/2 *
6- 497.5
7- 538.7 Shotgun Kowboy 12/1 ****
8- 487.7
9- 491.4
10- 519.1 Futile 6/1 **
11- 477.1

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I'm just going across the board with the #7 Shotgun Kowboy for $2/$5/$7 since he'll be a longshot in a big field, and then key the #1 Untrapped over these other three in six different $1 tris.

 

[Sharkey]

Are they really going to let Ezmosh go off at 25/1 after Bravazo just won the Risen Star a couple of days ago?

 

[Sharkey]

Bravazo just got his nose in front when those two raced each other in the last race, and that was after he closed into the really fast pace that Ezmosh set in the early running. The 3rd place finisher was way back almost 10 lengths behind.

 

[Sharkey]

#1 My Boy Jack to win and place for $5/$10, and then across the board with the #11 Ezmosh for $2/$5/$8.

 

[Sharkey]

Nice.

 

[t6p]

Shit, I missed out on the fun today @Sharkey

How do you end up making out overall for the day? Looks like you won some money?

 

[Sharkey]

Shit, I missed out on the fun today @Sharkey

How do you end up making out overall for the day? Looks like you won some money?

I did okay, T. Up about $35 for the day thanks to My Boy Jack getting it done for me at almost 9/1. Didn't get much before that besides hitting small place payouts on those first two horses I played at Mahoning Valley and Aqueduct.

 

[t6p]

I did okay, T. Up about $35 for the day thanks to My Boy Jack getting it done for me at almost 9/1. Didn't get much before that besides hitting small place payouts on those first two horses I played at Mahoning Valley and Aqueduct.

Sounds like a successful day to me. Well done bud.

 

[Sharkey]

Sounds like a successful day to me. Well done bud.

Cheers T. Day was made better by who it was that won, though, as I've been high on My Boy Jack for some time now;

A couple of races coming up with hyped up runners entered that have Derby dreams this year. Dak Attack and Mask at Gulfstream, and then McKinzie at Santa Anita in the G3 Sham about an hour from now. I might be most interested in seeing how My Boy Jack does in the Sham, though, as that one may actually be the best prospect of the bunch running today once the distances start getting longer.

I thought this looked like he may end up as a Derby runner back when I was looking over the Breeders' Cup fields and he ran on the grass then. He just stood out to me as one of those lowered head, long striding types that would take to the dirt and be effective at long distances. I would have made a Derby future wager on him if I could, but he's never offered up in the pools besides the "all others" category. With the win today he is at least in the Derby if they want it and if he stays healthy.

 

[t6p]

Cheers T. Day was made better by who it was that won, though, as I've been high on My Boy Jack for some time now;



I thought this looked like he may end up as a Derby runner back when I was looking over the Breeders' Cup fields and he ran on the grass then. He just stood out to me as one of those lowered head, long striding types that would take to the dirt and be effective at long distances. I would have made a Derby future wager on him if I could, but he's never offered up in the pools besides the "all others" category. With the win today he is at least in the Derby if they want it and if he stays healthy.

Very cool Shark. It's fun to be able to follow a horse over it's career like that.

 

[Sharkey]

Very cool Shark. It's fun to be able to follow a horse over it's career like that.

It's kinda funny how the BC Juvenile Turf race has produced better dirt runners so far than the BC Juvenile on dirt. Both Flameaway and My Boy Jack won recent prep races after being in the Juvenile Turf race. Catholic Boy finished a close 2nd to Flameaway and he was in the Turf race. Snappy Sinclair was only a nose away from winning the Risen Star and he was in there as well. The Juvenile dirt runners who have ran since then haven't fared nearly as well so far this prep season.

 

[Sharkey]

The 2 year-old champ is back at it tomorrow after a long layoff as he finally gets his Derby prep season started;

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G2 Fountain of Youth (Race 14 at Gulfstream)

#1 He Takes Charge (20/1) - 501.4 **
#2 Free Drop Billy (9/2) - 506.1 ***
#3 Peppered (30/1) - 440.4
#4 Strike Power (4/1) - 528.5 *****
#5 Storm Runner (15/1) - 486.9
#6 Good Magic (7/5) - 519.7 ****
#7 Gotta Go (10/1) - 480.8
#8 Marconi (8/1) - 500.1 *
#9 Machismo (15/1) - 464.9
#10 Promises Fulfilled (20/1) - 491.2

==========

 

[t6p]

The 2 year-old champ is back at it tomorrow after a long layoff as he finally gets his Derby prep season started;

==========

G2 Fountain of Youth (Race 14 at Gulfstream)

#1 He Takes Charge (20/1) - 501.4 **
#2 Free Drop Billy (9/2) - 506.1 ***
#3 Peppered (30/1) - 440.4
#4 Strike Power (4/1) - 528.5 *****
#5 Storm Runner (15/1) - 486.9
#6 Good Magic (7/5) - 519.7 ****
#7 Gotta Go (10/1) - 480.8
#8 Marconi (8/1) - 500.1 *
#9 Machismo (15/1) - 464.9
#10 Promises Fulfilled (20/1) - 491.2

==========

I won't be around to bet this one Shark, but best of luck to you and thanks for posting. I still haven't had a chance to try out the new additions to the formula that you sent, things have been a little crazy lately.

How have you been doing bud?

 

[Mga223]

Winx runs in 2 and a half hours.

 

[Sharkey]

I won't be around to bet this one Shark, but best of luck to you and thanks for posting. I still haven't had a chance to try out the new additions to the formula that you sent, things have been a little crazy lately.

How have you been doing bud?

I've been doing okay, T. Been playing straight win & place bets mostly the past week, and hit a few, missed a few sort of thing. I've also gone back to our original layoff factor (x1) instead of doubling up on it like we have been doing. I went back and reviewed a bunch of races, and while it's definitely worth playing against layoff horses in the win spots, they can still be options when playing trifectas and supers. Doubling up was too much of a penalty I found, so I went back to the original.

 

[Sharkey]

Winx runs in 2 and a half hours.

Is there anybody in there with even a bit of a chance of beating her, M? The 2nd choice behind her in the pools over here is a horse named Priced Icon, who's currently sitting at 130/1.

 

[Mga223]

Is there anybody in there with even a bit of a chance of beating her, M? The 2nd choice behind her in the pools over here is a horse named Priced Icon, who's currently sitting at 130/1.

Wait you are getting prized icon on 130/1?

It is $15 or 15/1 here.

Tbh not really I feel like if winx loses it will be because bowman rides her badly.

Hes done that and she still won.
He dropped the whip and she still won.

I really think a fall (God forbid) is what needed to lose but you just never know.

Who shot the barman is a chance for a place IMO.

 

[Sharkey]

Wait you are getting prized icon on 130/1?

It is $15 or 15/1 here.

Tbh not really I feel like if winx loses it will be because bowman rides her badly.

Hes done that and she still won.
He dropped the whip and she still won.

I really think a fall (God forbid) is what needed to lose but you just never know.

Who shot the barman is a chance for a place IMO.

110/1 currently on Prized Icon. 150/1 on Stampede. The rest are 200/1 and over, including Thebarman who is 250/1.

I know she's really, really, really good and all that, but it's still a horse race and no horse is ever 1/100.

 

[Sharkey]

Priced Icon 25/1 now. Pools are normalizing. I took a small $2 stab at Thebarman at 70/1 thanks to @Mga223's tip.