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- Sep 4, 2004
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I'm thinking of going this way for the Rebel after watching some races;
- #1 Title Ready to win and place for $10/$20
- #3 Solomini over #1 Title Ready, #10 Combatant in a pair of exactas for $10 each.
I really, really like the way Title Ready ran his last race. Mind you, he didn't beat much in it in an allowance race. It's just the manner in which he did it that was impressive. He was caught in between horses for the first half mile of the race, which, as you guys know, is a pretty terrible position for a horse to be in getting pressured from both sides. He was also right up there up close to a pretty fast pace in a race shape that spaced the field out and that favoured horses that came from midpack in the race. The horse that was outside him early faded to last late, and the big favourite he was outside the whole way faded to 4th during the stretch. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers came from 5th and 7th early. Title Ready put away the other two horses that were challenging him early, and was moving with even more energy than the closing types at the end in which he won by 3+ lengths. Again, he didn't meet much in the race, and he did shorten his stride a bit at the end despite the fact that he was still moving well. But that is easily excusable given the early pace pressure he got from both sides earlier in the race. Other than that, it's hard to knock his effort with him doing such a good job overcoming adversity and winning against the race shape, and doing so with the energy and fluid running motion he did it with. Very nice effort from him in what was his first race in over 2 months. He ran with much more maturity than he did as a two year-old and could be one of those many who are just getting good at the right time. This race is obviously a big class test for him, though. But he'll be a good price. Probably even well into double digit odds since there's very little buzz about him.
Not sure if you guys remember, but when My Boy Jack won the Smarty Jones a few weeks ago the Oaklawn track was playing heavily in favour of inside runners that day. I think there was like 4 or 5 races in a row where the #1 horse ended up winning the race, including My Boy Jack. That bias is still there at the track from what I can see. I watched some other two turn races at the track covering the last couple of weeks and inside runners are winning almost everything regardless if they break from an inside post or not, which most of them are doing. Brisnet also lists the data covering the last week, and while it's only a small sample size of 10 races at 8.5 furlongs at the track, their stats are saying that posts 1-3 have an impact value of 2.21 with an average winning percentage of each post inside being at 27%. Posts 4-7 are at 3% and a 0.21 impact value. Posts 8+ are 6% and 0.64 impact value. Horses needed an inside trip a few weeks ago at the track, and it's looking like they still need one here. The post position draw is already factored in the number each horse gets of course, but Title Ready and Solomini would look even better on their final numbers if post position recency was factored more heavily. Combatant might not be affected as much since he likes to come from off the pace and might have an opportunity to get down near the rail before the 1st turn. But Sporting Chance may find himself in tough from a trip perspective breaking from the 7 post, though, since he likes to sit up fairly close to the early pace, which the same can be said for at least 5 of the runners breaking inside of him, if not all 6. At the risk of going way wide around the 1st turn and getting stuck out there all the way around the track, his jock may be forced to gun him out of the gate. Or to take back and force Sporting Chance into a running style that he's never tried before and that isn't his game. Neither situation is good for him, so he even though he ranks highly on the number, I think I'm going to try to beat him out of the exacta for sure and the trifecta as well if I do decide to play a few of those too.
- #1 Title Ready to win and place for $10/$20
- #3 Solomini over #1 Title Ready, #10 Combatant in a pair of exactas for $10 each.
I really, really like the way Title Ready ran his last race. Mind you, he didn't beat much in it in an allowance race. It's just the manner in which he did it that was impressive. He was caught in between horses for the first half mile of the race, which, as you guys know, is a pretty terrible position for a horse to be in getting pressured from both sides. He was also right up there up close to a pretty fast pace in a race shape that spaced the field out and that favoured horses that came from midpack in the race. The horse that was outside him early faded to last late, and the big favourite he was outside the whole way faded to 4th during the stretch. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers came from 5th and 7th early. Title Ready put away the other two horses that were challenging him early, and was moving with even more energy than the closing types at the end in which he won by 3+ lengths. Again, he didn't meet much in the race, and he did shorten his stride a bit at the end despite the fact that he was still moving well. But that is easily excusable given the early pace pressure he got from both sides earlier in the race. Other than that, it's hard to knock his effort with him doing such a good job overcoming adversity and winning against the race shape, and doing so with the energy and fluid running motion he did it with. Very nice effort from him in what was his first race in over 2 months. He ran with much more maturity than he did as a two year-old and could be one of those many who are just getting good at the right time. This race is obviously a big class test for him, though. But he'll be a good price. Probably even well into double digit odds since there's very little buzz about him.
Not sure if you guys remember, but when My Boy Jack won the Smarty Jones a few weeks ago the Oaklawn track was playing heavily in favour of inside runners that day. I think there was like 4 or 5 races in a row where the #1 horse ended up winning the race, including My Boy Jack. That bias is still there at the track from what I can see. I watched some other two turn races at the track covering the last couple of weeks and inside runners are winning almost everything regardless if they break from an inside post or not, which most of them are doing. Brisnet also lists the data covering the last week, and while it's only a small sample size of 10 races at 8.5 furlongs at the track, their stats are saying that posts 1-3 have an impact value of 2.21 with an average winning percentage of each post inside being at 27%. Posts 4-7 are at 3% and a 0.21 impact value. Posts 8+ are 6% and 0.64 impact value. Horses needed an inside trip a few weeks ago at the track, and it's looking like they still need one here. The post position draw is already factored in the number each horse gets of course, but Title Ready and Solomini would look even better on their final numbers if post position recency was factored more heavily. Combatant might not be affected as much since he likes to come from off the pace and might have an opportunity to get down near the rail before the 1st turn. But Sporting Chance may find himself in tough from a trip perspective breaking from the 7 post, though, since he likes to sit up fairly close to the early pace, which the same can be said for at least 5 of the runners breaking inside of him, if not all 6. At the risk of going way wide around the 1st turn and getting stuck out there all the way around the track, his jock may be forced to gun him out of the gate. Or to take back and force Sporting Chance into a running style that he's never tried before and that isn't his game. Neither situation is good for him, so he even though he ranks highly on the number, I think I'm going to try to beat him out of the exacta for sure and the trifecta as well if I do decide to play a few of those too.
