Not sure if the following can help anybody narrow the field down anymore when making their wagers, but here's some more stuff in regards to a horse's finishing position in their final prep and with some comparisons with the data I posted back on page 1;
- 10 of the last 16 Derby were won by a horse who had won their final prep
- 14 of the last Derby winners were won by a horse who finished in either 1st or 2nd in their final prep
Out of the two that didn't finish first or second, Giacomo and Mine That Bird, each were on a positive pattern for their racing careers going into the Derby. Giacomo had a combined BSF/BRIS of that was above 95 for his last prep (97.5), had maintain or improve pattern to that BSF/BRIS figure, and also had a late pace that was 95 or better in final prep (101). He just missed by 0.5 of having his best combined BSF/BRIS. He also had a positive thorograph pattern going into the race as well with a (P, P, P) pattern with the (P, P) pattern for his last two preps being tied with the (P, T) pattern as far as producing the most board hitters in the Derby over the last 34 years. Mine That Bird came into the Derby with a maintain or improve pattern to his BSF/BRIS numbers and also ran his best BSF/BRIS combined figure in his last race before the Derby. He also had a positive thorograph pattern as well with a (P, P, T) with the (P, T) pattern over his last two being tied with the (P, P) pattern for hitting the board, but has been the best pattern for the win spot itself. Both had an AWD of the dam sire side that was greater than the sire side if that stat deserves any credence
As far as hitting the board and filling out trifectas go;
- 29 of the 48 horses who hit the board in the last 16 Derbys came into the race after having won their final prep. 8 of 48 board hitters came in after having finished 2nd in their final prep
Out of the 19 horses that hit the board in the Derby after having failed to win their final prep, 6 of them ran a combined BSF/BRIS of 95 or better in their final prep, had a maintain or improve pattern to their BSF/BRIS figure, had run their best BSF/BRIS in their last race, and had a late pace figure of 95 or greater in it. Another 6 of them checked the boxes in three of those categories, while another 4 checked the boxes in two. As far as thorograph goes, 14 of those 19 that didn't win their prep entered the Derby after having run a P or T in their final prep. 13 of the 19 had a positive two race pattern going into the Derby whether that be a (PT), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P).