Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Not too early to start on the Derby is it?

- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby (less than 4 pt drop in either of their last two races)
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred
- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F
- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes


Justify (485.7): 102, 102.5, 110.5 (117 LP) - 1st - 1/0 (*5 of 6 so far*)
Audible (477.2): 89, 102, 103 (104 LP) - 1st - 2/0 (*5 of 6*)
Good Magic (474.7): 102.5, 93.5, 96.5 (93 LP) - 1st - 3/3 (*3 of 6*)
Bolt d'Oro (474.6): 95, 99.5, 106 (114 LP) - 2nd - 4/2 (*6 of 6*)
Enticed (465.9): 82, 99.5, 96 (90 LP) - 2nd - 3/2 (*4 of 6*)
Vino Rosso (456.6): 95, 88, 100 (98 LP) - 1st - 4/0 (*4 of 6*)
Noble Indy (450.9): 89.5, 93.5, 97.5 (86 LP) - 1st - 3/1 (*4 of 6*)
Flameaway (448.5): 97, 94.5, 95 (89 LP) - 2nd - 5/4 (*4 of 6*)
Free Drop Billy (444.6): 94.5, 89.5, 91.5 (91 LP) - 3rd - 4/3 (*1 of 6*)
Hofburg (439.4): 69.5, 89.5, 99 (101 LP) - 2nd - 2/2 (*5 of 6*)
Bravazo (403.4): 92.5, 95.5, 70 (50 LP) - 8th - 4/4 (*1 of 6*)
Lone Sailor (401.3): 76.5, 80.5, 97.5 (94 LP) - 2nd - 5/5 (*5 of 6*)
Promises Fulfilled (381.7): 83, 100, 57 (29 LP) - 9th - 3/2 (*1 of 6*)


The first number in brackets after the horse's name is the number I came up with using the formula I use, although that is going to be a bit incomplete since jockey assignments/stats aren't included, nor has final workouts been included either. But the number isn't going to change much as far as ordering goes since all the horses should get top jocks and all should have similar workout patterns. The rest of the figures are based on the criteria listed above the horses. I haven't seen the thorograph figures of these guys yet, nor have I measured stride length. And I don't have the figures for the Arkansas Derby runners yet either or for those who qualified for the Derby overseas (Mendelssohn, Gronkowski). So this is just a starting point really.

Who finishes 2nd?

 

[Sharkey]

Actually I could do the three Arkansas Derby runners who qualified, as well as My Boy Jack, if I had only looked a little closer.


Justify (485.7): 102, 102.5, 110.5 (117 LP) - 1st - 1/0 (*5 of 6 so far*)
Audible (477.2): 89, 102, 103 (104 LP) - 1st - 2/0 (*5 of 6*)
Good Magic (474.7): 102.5, 93.5, 96.5 (93 LP) - 1st - 3/3 (*3 of 6*)
Bolt d'Oro (474.6): 95, 99.5, 106 (114 LP) - 2nd - 4/2 (*6 of 6*)
Magnum Moon (466.0): 88.5, 98.5, 98.5 (115 LP) - 1st - 3/2 (*6 of 6*)
Enticed (465.9): 82, 99.5, 96 (90 LP) - 2nd - 3/2 (*4 of 6*)
Solomini (460.9) : 97, 94, 93.5 (111 LP) - 3rd - 5/2 (*3 of 6*)
Vino Rosso (456.6): 95, 88, 100 (98 LP) - 1st - 4/0 (*4 of 6*)
Noble Indy (450.9): 89.5, 93.5, 97.5 (86) - 1st - 3/1 (*4 of 6*)
Flameaway (448.5): 97, 94.5, 95 (89) - 2nd - 5/4 (*4 of 6*)
Free Drop Billy (444.6): 94.5, 89.5, 91.5 (91) - 3rd - 4/3 (*1 of 6*)
Hofburg (439.4): 69.5, 89.5, 99 (101) - 2nd - 2/2 (*5 of 6*)
Quip (437.5): 76, 96, 93.5 (107 LP) - 2nd - 4/2 (*4 of 6*)
My Boy Jack (434.7): 95.5, 96.5, 92 (98 LP) - 1st - 3/7 (*4 of 6*)
Bravazo (403.4): 92.5, 95.5, 70 (50) - 8th - 4/4 (*1 of 6*)
Lone Sailor (401.3): 76.5, 80.5, 97.5 (94) - 2nd - 5/5 (*5 of 6*)
Promises Fulfilled (381.7): 83, 100, 57 (29) - 9th (*1 of 6*)


Some nice horses this year. Especially compared to last year when it was tough finding much to like and the eventual Derby winner ended up being one of the 2 or 3 worst Derby winners we've seen over the last few decades. Last year's runner-up, Lookin At Lee, has been terrible as well and hasn't even been able to hit the board against allowance type horses in a couple of recent tries. Irish War Cry was the 2nd choice in wagering for last year's Derby behind Always Dreaming, and he's been terrible for the most part as well since then. I think the top 2 choices from last year are a combined 0 for 12 in races since, and have only combined to be competitive for the win in a couple of them. Overall that was such a terrible crop who tried the Derby last year. This year it can't help but be better, and likely much better.

 

[Sharkey]

"Who finishes 2nd?"

I still think Vino Rosso stands a pretty good chance to grab that position at a decent price. I haven't slowed the video down on him or any others to measure stride length, but when I watched the replay of his Wood win right after it happened it was his stride length at the end of the race that I took notice of. I imagine it measure as one of the best of these horses once I get around to measuring them. Vino Rosso just has the look of a horse who'll still be running hard at the end of the Derby, unlike some/most of these guys.

 

[Sharkey]

The best/fastest performances in a 9 furlong prep according to a few of the figure makers;


TimeformUS;

Justify - 132
Bolt d'Oro - 129
Mendelssohn - 128 (estimate by chief figure maker)
Audible - 122
Good Magic - 122
Vino Rosso - 121 (tie)
Flameaway - 121 (tie)


Beyers;

Justify - 107
Mendelssohn - 106 (estimate by Andy Beyer)
Bolt d'Oro - 102
Audible - 99
Magnum Moon - 98
Vino Rosso - 98


Brisnet;

Justify - 114
Bolt d'Oro - 110
Audible - 107
Hofburg - 104
Vino Rosso - 102
Noble Indy - 100


Equibase;

Audible - 111
Justify - 108
Hofburg - 107
Vino Rosso - 106
Noble Indy - 106
Magnum Moon - 105


Who finishes 2nd?

 

[Sharkey]

Including stride length;


Justify (485.7): 102, 102.5, 110.5 (117 LP) - 1st - 23.9 ft - 1/0 (*6 of 7 so far*)
Audible (477.2): 89, 102, 103 (104 LP) - 1st - 23.2 ft - 2/0 (*5 of 7*)
Good Magic (474.7): 102.5, 93.5, 96.5 (93 LP) - 1st - 22.0 ft - 3/3 (*3 of 7*)
Bolt d'Oro (474.6): 95, 99.5, 106 (114 LP) - 2nd - 22.5 ft - 4/2 (*6 of 7*)
Magnum Moon (466.0): 88.5, 98.5, 98.5 (115 LP) - 1st - 24.3 ft - 3/2 (*7 of 7*)
Enticed (465.9): 82, 99.5, 96 (90 LP) - 2nd - 22.9 ft - 3/2 (*4 of 7*)
Solomini (460.9) : 97, 94, 93.5 (111 LP) - 3rd - 23.9 ft - 5/2 (*4 of 7*)
Vino Rosso (456.6): 95, 88, 100 (98 LP) - 1st - 23.8 ft - 4/0 (*5 of 7*)
Noble Indy (450.9): 89.5, 93.5, 97.5 (86) - 1st - 22.9 ft - 3/1 (*4 of 6*)
Flameaway (448.5): 97, 94.5, 95 (89) - 2nd - 22.1 ft - 5/4 (*4 of 7*)
Free Drop Billy (444.6): 94.5, 89.5, 91.5 (91) - 3rd - 22.7 ft - 4/3 (*1 of 7*)
Hofburg (439.4): 69.5, 89.5, 99 (101) - 2nd - 23.5 ft- 2/2 (*6 of 7*)
Quip (437.5): 76, 96, 93.5 (107 LP) - 2nd - 23.2 ft - 4/2 (*4 of 7*)
My Boy Jack (434.7): 95.5, 96.5, 92 (98 LP) - 1st - 23.1 ft - 3/7 (*4 of 7*)
Bravazo (403.4): 92.5, 95.5, 70 (50 LP) - 8th - ??? - 4/4 (*1 of 7*)
Lone Sailor (401.3): 76.5, 80.5, 97.5 (94 LP) - 2nd - 23.2 ft - 5/5 (*5 of 7*)
Promises Fulfilled (381.7): 83, 100, 57 (29 LP) - 9th - ??? - 3/2 (*1 of 7*)


Not much to see here compared to what I was thinking a week or two ago. Justify looks best so far. Audible looks like the other useful option of the horses that will be about 10/1 or shorter. Vino Rosso and Hofburg look best as far as longer priced horses go and that could spice up exotic plays. Good Magic definitely looks like a play against to me. Both Magnum Moon and Bolt d'Oro need a closer look, as I could go either way with them. Magnum Moon checks in all 7 so far, but with the way they allowed him to crawl on the lead in the Arkansas Derby (Fractions of 0:49 and 1:13 or thereabouts) I should hope he'd have strong late pace and stride length numbers. He's likely to be the 2nd choice in the wagering yet I don't know if he's the goods yet or not. Bolt d'Oro may or may not have been demoralized against Justify last time out when Justify easily repelled the two shots Bolt took against him in that race. He may be the one worth watching the most in the workouts leading up to the Derby to see if he's displaying good energy or not.

 

[Sharkey]

I guess Firenze Fire, Gronkowski, and Mendelssohn are the three in the Derby as of right now that I haven't done any data for. The first two are hopeless longshots anyways, while Mendelssohn almost has to be a play against for me. He prep win in Dubai was one of the most visually impressive ones this year, and he did earn a big figure from those that gave him one. Just seems like a prime candidate to regress and probably significantly at that. That last race was a big jump up for him, and it came on a track that was heavily biased towards his style that day. There was also nothing in that race behind him that would even be as low as 100/1 in the Derby. I strongly doubt he'll be left all alone on the lead this time, and if he's sharing running space for most of the race with the likes of Justify, Magnum Moon, Good Magic, Noble Indy, Audible, etc., something has got to give with him ( for others in that group too since there's only going to be one herd leader at the end). Maybe if he was a longshot I would take some chances. But as the 3rd or 4th choice I have to play against.

There's nothing interesting from the also eligible list either as far as horses that could get in if there's a defection or two. Combatant is next in line and no thanks. Ditto Snapper Sinclair.

 

[Sharkey]

Apparently I'm about ready to go;

Justify over Audible, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and ??? in exactas, tris and supers

Should I just burn my money now @t6p?

 

[t6p]

Apparently I'm about ready to go;

Justify over Audible, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and ??? in exactas, tris and supers

Should I just burn my money now @t6p?

No way Shark. This is it, this is the one we've been waiting for. I feel it.

Whatever you decide, I'm with you. If we go down in flames, we go down in flames together, haha.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

Some good advice right there except for the "don't pay" part since @t6p's picks will definitely be worth paying for. For a low price of $50 T will give out his 8x10x12x20 super which he guarantees to hit or else you get your money back. What a deal. What's an extra $50 when you're planning to cover 10,000+ different combinations in a $1 super?

 

[t6p]

Some good advice right there except for the "don't pay" part since @t6p's picks will definitely be worth paying for. For a low price of $50 T will give out his 8x10x12x20 super which he guarantees to hit or else you get your money back. What a deal. What's an extra $50 when you're planning to cover 10,000+ different combinations in a $1 super?

Lmao Shark. Sad part is playing that super is probably just about my only chance of cashing a ticket on the race!

 

[Sharkey]

Lmao Shark. Sad part is playing that super is probably just about my only chance of cashing a ticket on the race!

$10,000 to win maybe $1,000 this year. Sounds like a great deal, T.

Ah, I'm just poking fun at some of these paid touts who always show up this time of year, and try to sell off their Derby picks that feature a stupid amount of coverage like that. Maybe not to that extreme, but some of the recommended plays are ridiculous. They're not even capping the race. They're just selling combinations.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I'm about done with what horses I'll be looking to play this year;


1st - Justify
2nd - Audible
3rd - Vino Rosso
4th - Hofburg
5th - Bolt d'Oro


It's too hard for me to trust a horse like Magnum Moon even if he profiles so well on the above criteria. E1 of 77, E2 of 80, and LP of 115 says he only had to run with any kind of effort for only the last third of the Arkansas Derby. Compare that to Bolt d'Oro's pace figures of 94-102-114 for the Santa Anita Derby, which shows Bolt was running just as hard late and did so after running much harder early. Bolt was also doing so while having additional mental pressure when trying to chase down a freak in Justify whereas Magnum Moon faced very little pressure all race and had clear running in the stretch (him veering out as badly as he did could also be a concern). Magnum Moon may be the better win candidate of the two since he still may have upside, and Bolt has kinda showed us what he is already. But, provided Justify didn't break him last time out, Bolt just seems like he has the much higher floor of the two and a safer pick to finish somewhere in the tri or super. That's all I want anyways. Some horses that are good options to use underneath Justify.

If I go this way, and I probably will barring scratches or Bolt looking like crap in his workouts, this will be the first time in a long time where I don't use any of the Arkansas Derby runners in the Derby itself. Just the Santa Anita Derby and Flordia Derby for me (the two best ran preps), as well as Mafioso hitman from New York.

 

[Sharkey]

...which means everybody out there should be going all in with both fists looking to bet horses like Magnum Moon, Good Magic, Mendelssohn, etc.

 

[Sharkey]

The best/fastest performances in a 9 furlong prep according to a few of the figure makers;


TimeformUS;

Justify - 132
Bolt d'Oro - 129
Mendelssohn - 128 (estimate by chief figure maker)
Audible - 122
Good Magic - 122
Vino Rosso - 121 (tie)
Flameaway - 121 (tie)


Beyers;

Justify - 107
Mendelssohn - 106 (estimate by Andy Beyer)
Bolt d'Oro - 102
Audible - 99
Magnum Moon - 98
Vino Rosso - 98


Brisnet;

Justify - 114
Bolt d'Oro - 110
Audible - 107
Hofburg - 104
Vino Rosso - 102
Noble Indy - 100


Equibase;

Audible - 111
Justify - 108
Hofburg - 107
Vino Rosso - 106
Noble Indy - 106
Magnum Moon - 105


Who finishes 2nd?

Added the top Equibase figures to this list as well.

 

[Sharkey]

Some of these stats people are throwing around at this time of year are hilarious. "This angle is only 2 for 36 in the Derby" or "This angle sees a 0-1-2 record from 17 Derby starters". I swear, sometimes people forget that this is a 20 horse field getting set to race, thus records like 2 for 36 or 0-1-2 in 17 starts is right in line with what the records should be if all things were equal (2 for 40, and 1-1-1 out of 20 if everything was equal). Stats like these are meaningless without totaling up the win probability of those that fit the angle. Who knows, it's possible that the horses involved in those "negative" stats may have even overachieved based on the public's perception of their chances.

 

[Sharkey]

Good read on stride length right here, as well as the importance of noting the different kinds of long striding horses;

http://www.horseracing.com/blog/long-striders-champions-or-duds/

And an example of both stride length (apx 25.5 ft down the backstertch with an apx 24.0 ft at the end of the race) and stride frequency (apx 2.2 strides per second) courtesy of this year's eventual Kentucky Derby winner;




Magnum Moon is the only horse who showed a longer stride at the end of a prep race than did Justify by my estimates, but that was only after he was running pace figures significantly slower of the two. Magnum Moon's early pace figures from Brisnet were 77 and 80, while they were 124-111-110 on TimeformUS. Justify's early pace figures were 100 and 105 on Brisnet, while on TimeformUS they were 140-140-129. Justify almost matched the stride length of Magnum Moon for the late portion of their races despite running much harder through the early portion, and on a track that was, according to the track variants, much deeper and slower of the two races.

Come on @t6p. Tell me...

Who finishes 2nd?

That's all we're trying to figure out here.

 

[Sharkey]

Some early Brisnet PP's for the Derby if anyone is interested;

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf

 

[t6p]

Good read on stride length right here, as well as the importance of noting the different kinds of long striding horses;

http://www.horseracing.com/blog/long-striders-champions-or-duds/

And an example of both stride length (apx 25.5 ft down the backstertch with an apx 24.0 ft at the end of the race) and stride frequency (apx 2.2 strides per second) courtesy of this year's eventual Kentucky Derby winner;




Magnum Moon is the only horse who showed a longer stride at the end of a prep race than did Justify by my estimates, but that was only after he was running pace figures significantly slower of the two. Magnum Moon's early pace figures from Brisnet were 77 and 80, while they were 124-111-110 on TimeformUS. Justify's early pace figures were 100 and 105 on Brisnet, while on TimeformUS they were 140-140-129. Justify almost matched the stride length of Magnum Moon for the late portion of their races despite running much harder through the early portion, and on a track that was, according to the track variants, much deeper and slower of the two races.

Come on @t6p. Tell me...

Who finishes 2nd?

That's all we're trying to figure out here.

Haha, honestly bud it's probably a bad idea for me to even attempt to guess. I'll almost certainly be wrong and I don't want to influence you finding the real horse that we need to be betting in any way.

All this great info you've been posting has me pumped to watch the race though!

 

[Sharkey]

Haha, honestly bud it's probably a bad idea for me to even attempt to guess. I'll almost certainly be wrong and I don't want to influence you finding the real horse that we need to be betting in any way.

All this great info you've been posting has me pumped to watch the race though!

Well, I could certainly use the help, T. I like Justify obviously. Audible, Vino Rosso, and Hofburg as well as good underneath options. Beyond those four there Bolt d'Oro would get my 5th spot now, but that's basically by default because I still have reservations about him. The more I look at horses like Magnum Moon, Good Magic, Mendelssohn the less interested I am in them at what prices they'll be offered up at. None of the others in the field look all that interesting either, although a hard trying closer like My Boy Jack would be interesting to me most years. Not feeling him this year, though. I don't know. Maybe I'll just play for the exacta and trifecta this year and forget about the super.

Bah. We're still 2+ weeks away anyways. No rush. After a week off to heal my wounds I should probably start worrying about Aqueduct tomorrow or Mahoning Valley on Saturday. Still have $21 in my account to burn up before I have to make another deposit.