Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[MacPherson911]

are there any racing podcasts that you guys really like and recommend?

 

[Sharkey]

are there any racing podcasts that you guys really like and recommend?

Steve Byk's weekday radio show is by far the best you're going to hear, Mac, and he puts it up on his site daily. I've been listening to his show on and off for nearly 10 years now.

http://stevebyk.com/

Just go the broadcast archives section.

He has all the best trainers, handicappers, clockers, writers, pedigree experts, etc., on there all the time, and his shows obviously focus mostly on the Derby at this time of year.

 

[MacPherson911]

Steve Byk's weekday radio show is by far the best you're going to hear, Mac, and he puts it up on his site daily. I've been listening to his show on and off for nearly 10 years now.

http://stevebyk.com/

Just go the broadcast archives section.

He has all the best trainers, handicappers, clockers, writers, pedigree experts, etc., on there all the time, and his shows obviously focus mostly on the Derby at this time of year.

awesome! thanks a lot, I'm definitely gonna check that out....I just realized i have TVG in my cable package so I've been watching racing nearly round the clock this weekend!

 

[Sharkey]

awesome! thanks a lot, I'm definitely gonna check that out....I just realized i have TVG in my cable package so I've been watching racing nearly round the clock this weekend!

Cheers Mac. If you're looking for Derby thoughts only on Steve's show guys like Johnny D, Steve Haskin, Ed DeRosa, James Scully, Jon White, etc., may be the best to listen to. But all the guests are going to be talking about the Derby over the next couple of weeks, especially in the last week before the race. I'm guessing clockers like Mike Welsch and Gary Young will also be back on the show this year giving out daily thoughts on how the Derby runners look in training up to the race as well. That can be quite useful.

Also, if you're thinking about playing some of the races you've been watching and want some free PP's, you can find some here;

http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html

 

[Sharkey]

@MacPherson911

Here's some early Derby PP's if you want to get a head start;

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf


...and some for the Oaks as well;

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Oaks18Points.pdf

 

[MacPherson911]

Cheers Mac. If you're looking for Derby thoughts only on Steve's show guys like Johnny D, Steve Haskin, Ed DeRosa, James Scully, Jon White, etc., may be the best to listen to. But all the guests are going to be talking about the Derby over the next couple of weeks, especially in the last week before the race. I'm guessing clockers like Mike Welsch and Gary Young will also be back on the show this year giving out daily thoughts on how the Derby runners look in training up to the race as well. That can be quite useful.

Also, if you're thinking about playing some of the races you've been watching and want some free PP's, you can find some here;

http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html

Thanks a lot!! so much good stuff!

 

[kenfloshogun]

Hit Justify 2 months ago at +1200. Always end up in this situation, had Classic Empire at similar odds and Nyquist the year before. Hope it works out

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like both Quip & Gronkowski are out of the Derby and thus Combatant & Instilled Regard get in.

 

[Sharkey]

Took out Quip and added Instilled Regard, who's stride length at the end is based on a projection of what it would have been based on what it was the previous 1/16th.


Justify (485.7): 102, 102.5, 110.5 (117 LP) - 1st - 23.9 ft - 1/0 (*6 of 7 so far*)
Audible (477.2): 89, 102, 103 (104 LP) - 1st - 23.2 ft - 2/0 (*5 of 7*)
Good Magic (474.7): 102.5, 93.5, 96.5 (93 LP) - 1st - 22.0 ft - 3/3 (*3 of 7*)
Bolt d'Oro (474.6): 95, 99.5, 106 (114 LP) - 2nd - 22.5 ft - 4/2 (*6 of 7*)
Magnum Moon (466.0): 88.5, 98.5, 98.5 (115 LP) - 1st - 24.3 ft - 3/2 (*7 of 7*)
Enticed (465.9): 82, 99.5, 96 (90 LP) - 2nd - 22.9 ft - 3/2 (*4 of 7*)
Solomini (460.9) : 97, 94, 93.5 (111 LP) - 3rd - 23.9 ft - 5/2 (*4 of 7*)
Vino Rosso (456.6): 95, 88, 100 (98 LP) - 1st - 23.8 ft - 4/0 (*5 of 7*)
Noble Indy (450.9): 89.5, 93.5, 97.5 (86) - 1st - 22.9 ft - 3/1 (*4 of 7*)
Flameaway (448.5): 97, 94.5, 95 (89) - 2nd - 22.1 ft - 5/4 (*4 of 7*)
Instilled Regard (445.8): 94, 93, 96 (105 LP) - 4th - 22.4 ft - 5/3 (*5 of 7*)
Free Drop Billy (444.6): 94.5, 89.5, 91.5 (91) - 3rd - 22.7 ft - 4/3 (*1 of 7*)
Hofburg (439.4): 69.5, 89.5, 99 (101) - 2nd - 23.5 ft- 2/2 (*6 of 7*)
My Boy Jack (434.7): 95.5, 96.5, 92 (98 LP) - 1st - 23.1 ft - 3/7 (*4 of 7*)
Combatant (423.6): 93, 90.5, 93 (116 LP) - 4th - 23.2 ft - 3/5 (*4 of 7*)
Firenze Fire (419.8): 87.5, 86, 85.5 (78 LP) - 4th - ??? - 3/2 (*2 of 7*)
Bravazo (403.4): 92.5, 95.5, 70 (50 LP) - 8th - ??? - 4/4 (*1 of 7*)
Lone Sailor (401.3): 76.5, 80.5, 97.5 (94 LP) - 2nd - 23.2 ft - 5/5 (*5 of 7*)
Promises Fulfilled (381.7): 83, 100, 57 (29 LP) - 9th - ??? - 3/2 (*1 of 7*)
Mendelssohn (???): ???, ???, ??? (??? LP) - 1st - 22.8 ft - 1/2 (*4 of 7*)

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like all three of my future bets (My Boy Jack, Solomini, and Instilled Regard) are gonna run, so I at least have a shot with them. Not much of a shot, though, as all three of them are likely 50/1 collectively as a group.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[mkess101]

It's probably best, T. I mean, there is a high probability that Hofburg will be in the race, but I wouldn't want your money to be dead on him since he does have a better chance than most of not being in the gates just because of the trainer. You guys generally find some good lines with the books anyways in the days immediately before the race, so who knows, you may still get a good 25/1 or even 30/1 price on him once you have assurance that he will in fact run.

Hofburg already down to 22-1 on 5dimes. Picking up steam early.

 

[Sharkey]

Hofburg already down to 22-1 on 5dimes. Picking up steam early.

I figured he'd get bet down some, Mike.

If not, and you're protected that way then I'd say sure. It's not every year when you're going to see an improving Florida Derby runner-up like Hofburg, whose also one of the horses better suited for the 10F distance, be offered up at 30/1. He's probably closer to 20/1 on the day of the Derby I'm thinking. Maybe even a touch below 20/1 since he has the looks of a horse who may pick up some late steam with the sharpies.

Lots to like about that one as a horse who is on the upswing and should handle the distance better than most based on his stride length, finishing ability, and breeding (his sire's offspring have won the Belmont 3 of the last 4 years, and his dam sire was a Belmont winner as well). His effort in the Florida Derby was also strong, and probably even better than the margin Audible beat him by indicates since Audible did block his path earlier and causing him to check up a bit when they were rounding the far turn. Both the top two in that race ran strong races even if they did get a pace to run at in it. You don't often see off the pace types make a wide, sustained run like that at Gulfstream, which generally plays a lot more favourable to inside speed types.

I don't know if Hofburg can win the Derby barring a complete pace meltdown up front since there's some strong horses in this year's field, and who'll have an early positional advantage over him. But he's a must use for me when it comes to using underneath in exotics. He's one of the 3 or 4 I have the most confidence in as far as at least running on late in the race provided he gets a clean trip.

 

[Sharkey]

It's not like Hofburg is going to be sitting back there with My Boy Jack either. He has more tactical speed than that one. But if the race plays out like it should on paper he'll probably be sitting back there in the 13th to 15th spot in the early running.

 

[Sharkey]

Sometimes it's the little things with these horses that go beyond just the number power, and instead give up a glimpse of what's inside a horse.


Here's the Florida Derby replay and notice the sequence with Audible & Hofburg between the 0:55 and 1:05 mark. Hofburg was moving as well into that sequence as was Audible yet had to check some when coming up on another horse. He had no choice but to back it down some then. But that didn't seem to deter Hofburg at all, and once Audible cleared him to the outside he got right back to business. Never gave up. Never conceded even though it was only his 3rd career start. He never could catch Audible, but he never stopped trying and he was extending his stride really well at the end of the race.




Vino Russo showed a very similar competitive nature when racing Enticed in the Wood. From the 1:40 to 2:00 of the video. Enticed came out to bump Vino Rosso, and Vino acted like he was all too happy to engage in a little combat out on the track as he immediately went back at Enticed. He pay him back for the previous bumping and then some, and also did so by trying to look Enticed right in the eye when doing so (Vino wears blinkers and you can see him trying to tilt his head Enticed's way). That was a very strong herd dynamic tell from Vino Rosso, as Enticed became unhinged a bit and completely backed down once Vino imposed himself on him. Vino didn't break stride at all during that conflict and conitued to show excellent stride extension right til the end of the race. That sequence with Enticed is why I called Vino a hitman for the mafia in an earlier post. You try to take his running space away from him and you're going to get whacked.

 

[Sharkey]

Updating these stats once again this year for anybody new to the thread;


- 17 of the past 18 Derby winners had a combined BSF/BRIS speed figure above 95 in their last prep at 9F
- 15 of the past 18 Derby winners had a maintain (less than 4 pt drop in any of their last 2 races) or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS over their final prep races
- 13 of the last 18 Derby winners had their best BSF/BRIS combined rating regardless of margin in their final prep at 9F
- 17 of the past 18 Derby winners had a Brisnet late pace figure of 95 or more in their final prep race at 9F


For the place spot;

- 14 of the past 18 second place finishers in the Derby had a combined BSF/BRIS speed figure that was above 95 in their final prep at 9F
- 15 of the past 18 second place finishers also had that maintain or improve pattern for their final two prep races
- 14 of the past 18 second place finishers had their best BSF/BRIS combined figure in their final prep at 9F
- 14 of the past 18 second place finishers had a Brisnet late pace number of 95 or greater in their final prep


For the show position;

- 15 of the past 18 third place finishers in the Derby had a combined BSF/BRIS figure of 95 or more in their final prep at 9F
- 14 of the past 18 third place finishers in the Derby had a maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final two prep races
- 13 of the past 18 third place finishers had their best combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final prep at 9F
- 11 of the last 18 third place had a late pace figure of 95 or above with 14 of them being 90 or above


- 18 of the past 21 Derby winners showed a stride length of 23.5 feet or above in their final prep race at 9F


- 34 of the past 41 Derby Winners had finished either 1st (23 times) or 2nd (11 times) in their final prep

 

[Sharkey]

- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby (less than 4 pt drop in either of their last two races)
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred
- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F
- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes

2017 - Always Dreaming checked in 4 of those categories
2016 - Nyquist checked in 6
2015 - American Pharoah checked in 8
2014 - California Chrome checked in 8
2013 - Orb checked in 8
2012 - I'll Have Another checked in 5
2011 - Animal Kingdom checked in 9
2010 - Super Saver checked in 7
2009 - Mine That Bird checked in 5
2008 - Big Brown checked in 8
2007 - Street Sense checked in 5
2006 - Barbaro checked in 9
2005 - Giacomo checked in 6
2004 - Smarty Jones checked in 6
2003 - Funny Cide checked in 9
2002 - War Emblem checked in 8
2001 - Monrachos checked in 6
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus checked in 9

17 of the past 18 Derby winners checked in at least half (5 or greater) with Always Dreaming being the lone exception last year. But he sucked as a Derby winner. He did check in what seems to be the two most impactful categories when it comes to Derby winners, though, that being a 95+ in both his combined BRIS/BSF and in his late pace number. 9 of 18 checked in either 8 or 9 of the categories.

I don't have the thorograph numbers for this year's runners yet, though (and not sure I will either).

 

[Sharkey]

Just over a week away;

1st - Justify
2nd - Audible
3rd - Vino Rosso
4th - Hofburg
5th - Bolt d'Oro
6th - Solomini

Added Solomini as another underneath option since my plan as of now is to key horses (mostly Justify, but a little Audible on top), so it'll easily be affordable for me. I gave him and plenty others a good looking over, and while I can't see the scenario in which Solomini wins the Derby, he's a hard trying type who has always given his all and fights for position at the end of his races. He's always moving with decent momentum at the end of his races and does so with good stride length (in all his races, not just the slow paced Arkansas Derby), although his stride mechanics aren't the prettiest to look at. He has enough in his breeding to get the 10F distance as well. He's never ran a race that can win the Derby, but he's never ran a bad race either with four of his previous starts being G1 races (finished 1st, 2nd x2, and 3rd). He has that class and consistency that I think makes him another good option to round out a trifecta or super. A low ceiling, high floor type that I'm confident is going up to give his best effort regardless. That effort may only be good enough for 7th or something like that in the Derby. But it could also be good enough for 3rd or 4th. That`s plenty good enough for me.

 

[Sharkey]

This guy has gotten good at the right time.

 

[gcoogan1]

backed Mendelsohn pretty much every race since debut but i was really taken by justify last time out, ive got 2u at 9/2 currently for justify