Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

To be fair to Ruis, all of the top trainers have had horses go bad on them for various reasons and were never able to get them to return to their previous top form. But those top trainers would have also identified a confidence issue with their horses too, and backed off on them, and entered them in easier races. Not taken a horse like Bolt and put him into the toughest race of his life after showing signs that his will to race was dwindling in his previous start. The Met Mile is one of the most prestigious dirt races in North America for older mature horses, and it routinely draws fields that are comparable in overall strength to almost any other dirt race. What Ruis basically did as an equivalent was to take a young minor league pitcher who was struggling with his confidence in say AA ball, and called him up to the big show to take on MLB hitters. It's dumb. It's stupid and it's hardly ever going to produce positive results.

It's likely that Bolt is ruined for good because of that decision by Ruis, but if there is one trainer that could get him back on the right path it's Steve Asmussen. Steve is the active leader in all time wins by far, and one of his specialties are reclammation projects like Bolt. He's as patient as they come when it comes to his horses, and a big reason why he has so many wins is that he knows what races his horses belong in. He'll rarely put them in over their heads in a race where they're going to completely embarrass themselves in like Ruis did to Bolt last weekend (or a lot of trainers do). Steve is also about as good as they come when it comes to maintaining a horse's form over a lengthy period of time because of his patience with them and how he builds them up over time. When he gets a top horse like Curlin, Rachel, Gun Runner, etc., they stay a top horse for an extended period of time. Moreso than any other trainer out there today. If there is a way to to help Bolt recapture his will to compete and if there is a future for him still as a race horse, Asmussen would be the guy to find it. If he can't then I doubt anyone could.

I'd agree with that - Asmussen is the guy. Maybe he can't get the horses ready as fast as BB or D Wayne, but he has a way of making them stay over longer periods of time. It would have been interesting to see what he did with Arrogate, as he may have not been so brilliant so early, but I don't think he would have faltered so badly as a four year old. Gunrunner was a great horse but never showed the level of brilliance that Arrogate did.

 

[Sharkey]

I may try this guy a couple of hours from now;

Race 2 at Evangeline Downs - #6 Judge N Ruler (23.1% = 7/2 fair odds)

Rain is a possibility, so I'll pass if that's the case. Need a dry track and hopefully something a little better than it's fair odds, which I'm not sure I'll get unless everyone goes big on the favourite.

I didn't have him because of the wet track (wouldn't have played it him at his just over 2/1 odds either), but this guy just edged the favourite by an inch or two at the line in a photo. Good race between those two actually.

 

[Sharkey]

You feel like hitting a couple more tris today @t6p?

==========

Race 2 at Laurel Park;

1- 382.5
2- 360.6
3- 369.4
4- 362.4
5- 414.7 Minor Legend 3/1 **
6- 400.9 Good Genes 12/1 *
7- 410.9 Silver Cowboy 6/1 **
8- 427.7 Twisted Earl 7/2 *** (28.4% = 5/2 fair odds)

I'll make a win bet ($25) on the #8 at above fair odds and a dry track. I'm also thinking some $10 exactas with the #8 over #5, #6, #7 ($30 total), and then some $5 trifectas with the #8 over #5, #7 over #5, #6, #7 ($20 total).

==========

Race 6 at Gulfstream;

1- 276.3
2- 289.3
3- 328.9 Star Mily 6/1 *
4- 398.7 Gemstone Linda 9/5 ***
5- 283.5
6- 390.7 Power Jak 3/1 *** (43.2% = 7/5 fair odds)
7- 309.6

A $25 win bet on the #6 if I get above fair odds and a dry track, and then a pair of $10 trifectas with #4, #6 over #4, #6 over #3.

==========

What do you think, bud? I'll probably keep the plays quite skinny, especially in the case of that Gulfstream race since that trifecta is likely only around a 10/1 payout if it hits.

 

[eataface]

Ohhhh boy i may be able to catch this one lol

 

[Sharkey]

Ohhhh boy i may be able to catch this one lol

The trifecta in the Gulfstream race is going to pay like crap if the way I'm playing it does hit, Eat, so don't spread too much in that one. I think there's a very high likelihood that the top two on the numbers there run 1st and 2nd all the way around the track and the key is finding the one that finishes 3rd. I'm basically just trying to beat out the #7 horse in that one as he is the 3rd choice on the morning line.

 

[Sharkey]

You feel like hitting a couple more tris today @t6p?

==========

Race 2 at Laurel Park;

1- 382.5
2- 360.6
3- 369.4
4- 362.4
5- 414.7 Minor Legend 3/1 **
6- 400.9 Good Genes 12/1 *
7- 410.9 Silver Cowboy 6/1 **
8- 427.7 Twisted Earl 7/2 *** (28.4% = 5/2 fair odds)

I'll make a win bet ($25) on the #8 at above fair odds and a dry track. I'm also thinking some $10 exactas with the #8 over #5, #6, #7 ($30 total), and then some $5 trifectas with the #8 over #5, #7 over #5, #6, #7 ($20 total).

==========

Race 6 at Gulfstream;

1- 276.3
2- 289.3
3- 328.9 Star Mily 6/1 *
4- 398.7 Gemstone Linda 9/5 ***
5- 283.5
6- 390.7 Power Jak 3/1 *** (43.2% = 7/5 fair odds)
7- 309.6

A $25 win bet on the #6 if I get above fair odds and a dry track, and then a pair of $10 trifectas with #4, #6 over #4, #6 over #3.

==========

What do you think, bud? I'll probably keep the plays quite skinny, especially in the case of that Gulfstream race since that trifecta is likely only around a 10/1 payout if it hits.

The #1, #2, and #7 all scratched from that race at Laurel. Not sure the point of even playing the race now with only 5 horses left in the field.

 

[Sharkey]

Maybe I`ll keep the remaining exacta options with the #8 over #5, #6 depending on what those payouts are, and then try to hit a #8, #5, #6 straight trifecta in order. Those scratches do suck a bunch, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Maybe I`ll keep the remaining exacta options with the #8 over #5, #6 depending on what those payouts are, and then try to hit a #8, #5, #6 straight trifecta in order. Those scratches do suck a bunch, though.

I got these bets in already and may even play the #8 to win if I can get a little better than 2/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Meh. The #4 horse beat me. Oh well. With the #8 getting overbet late I only lost $25 on the race.

 

[t6p]

You feel like hitting a couple more tris today @t6p?

==========

Race 2 at Laurel Park;

1- 382.5
2- 360.6
3- 369.4
4- 362.4
5- 414.7 Minor Legend 3/1 **
6- 400.9 Good Genes 12/1 *
7- 410.9 Silver Cowboy 6/1 **
8- 427.7 Twisted Earl 7/2 *** (28.4% = 5/2 fair odds)

I'll make a win bet ($25) on the #8 at above fair odds and a dry track. I'm also thinking some $10 exactas with the #8 over #5, #6, #7 ($30 total), and then some $5 trifectas with the #8 over #5, #7 over #5, #6, #7 ($20 total).

==========

Race 6 at Gulfstream;

1- 276.3
2- 289.3
3- 328.9 Star Mily 6/1 *
4- 398.7 Gemstone Linda 9/5 ***
5- 283.5
6- 390.7 Power Jak 3/1 *** (43.2% = 7/5 fair odds)
7- 309.6

A $25 win bet on the #6 if I get above fair odds and a dry track, and then a pair of $10 trifectas with #4, #6 over #4, #6 over #3.

==========

What do you think, bud? I'll probably keep the plays quite skinny, especially in the case of that Gulfstream race since that trifecta is likely only around a 10/1 payout if it hits.

Sorry Shark, just seeing this. I missed that Laurel race but I’m in for a shot at the Gulfstream one.

 

[Sharkey]

Sorry Shark, just seeing this. I missed that Laurel race but I’m in for a shot at the Gulfstream one.

It was a good move to miss it, T, as you got to save yourself a few bucks. The #8 horse missed the break, fell way behind, and could only manage 2nd.

I'm just playing for the trifecta in that Gulfstream race. Just those two combinations for $10 each since they'll be paying small if they do hit. No win bets or anything.

 

[Sharkey]

Hey Gulfstream likes me a little bit after all.

#4, #6, #3 was the finishing order.

 

[Sharkey]

$45 risked today, $125 return. That's okay considering I didn't think the trifecta would even pay that much.

 

[t6p]

$45 risked today, $125 return. That's okay considering I didn't think the trifecta would even pay that much.

Awesome Shark! I’ve been running around all day so I fucked up and forgot to put the play in but congrats bud.

 

[Sharkey]

Awesome Shark! I’ve been running around all day so I fucked up and forgot to put the play in but congrats bud.

Cheers T. It's not a trifecta worth bragging about, but hey, profit is profit. If a race gives what you think is two free bingo squares you got to take it and try to create some value.

 

[Sharkey]

One option to begin the day for me;

Race 1 at Parx - #7 Prodigious 9/2 (24.8% = 3/1 fair odds)

As always, at fair odds and on a dry track. $25 to win if I get those. I only have the 7/5 favourite in the race ranked 3rd (18 and 21 points behind the top 2 ranked), so if I get brave I may play a skinny #1, #7 exacta box as well and try to beat that favourite out of the top 2. We'll see, though. That "suspicious drop in class" comment when it comes to the #1 horse may be enough to scare me off of that exacta play. I try to avoid those when I can.

There's some other possible options later on this evening at Evangeline and Emerald Downs as well, but I haven't done anything yet besides identifying them. Still need to calculate the numbers, and do the other things I do.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm also taking a bit of a break after today or tomorrow as well, but this time it will be a good one. I'm cashing out my account, which my site says could take a few days to go through, and then I'm rewarding myself in some way. Fuck it, I deserve that at least for the run I've been on the last couple months. Screw you if you think otherwise. I can take what I've invested ($800 total), reward myself, and still put back in whatever gravy profit I have left over after that to play some more.

 

[Sharkey]

This is utterly ridiculous. Watch at the 1:15 mark, the 5:10 mark for the end of the race, and then at the 6:25 mark for the replay;

 

[Sharkey]

One option to begin the day for me;

Race 1 at Parx - #7 Prodigious 9/2 (24.8% = 3/1 fair odds)

Got the trip I wanted with this guy for the most part and he was in position at the top of the stretch, but could only manage 3rd when getting a little leg weary late.

 

[Sharkey]

==========

Race 5 at Emerald Downs;

1- 383.6 Private Boss 4/1 *
2- 376.7
3- 369.1
4- 379.3
5- 398.0 Solemnly Swear 5/2 **
6- 382.8 Citizen Sam 10/1 *
7- 408.3 Mintenized 3/1 *** 31.8% = 5/2 fair odds

==========

Race 6 at Emerald Downs;

1- 414.8
2- 418.7
3- 417.1
4- 510.4 Alliford Bay 9/5 ***
5- 453.5 Invested Prospect 3/1 *
6- 377.3
7- 451.1 Gazing 15/1 *
8- 473.1 Citizen Kitty 4/1 **

==========


If there's a dry track;

Race 5 - #7 over #5 over #1, #6 in a couple of $10 trifectas, and then a $30 win bet on the #7 if I can get above fair odds

Race 6 - #4 over #8 over #5, #7 in a couple of $10 trifectas


What do you think @t6p? Neither trifecta is going to pay great if it hits, but it could be more than okay if one of the longshots come in 3rd.