Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I'm thinking about the trifecta and super in that son of a bitch. That's what I'm thinking, T.

    #8 over #2, #6 over #2, #3, #6 over #1, #2, #3, #6

    What do you think, bud?

    The #4 horse is the 5/2 morning line favourite that race, so if we can beat him right out of the top 3/4 we should be laughing. That one is coming into this race on a regressive pattern, in addition to a 5+ month layoff.
     
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  2. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Sounds like a plan! Let’s cash this shit Shark.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I'll give the race a really good looking over before putting in the plays, T. I'll look for all the good/bad angles, map it out in my head how it should play out, etc. Still isn't happening for 4 hours yet, so we'll try to send you off on the break by totally crushing that race if we can.
     
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  4. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The #5 horse in this race may not look great on the numbers @t6p, but there's actually a lot to like about him as the longest shot on the board. Has a few good angles to his credit which aren't factored into his number above. 3rd start off a layoff, new pace top, couple of "2nd time" positive angles (with jockey, this level of race). He has has a very nice progressive pattern to his figures as well (73, 78, 82, and 85 most recently). He's also the only closer in the race with a pair of "need the lead" types in this race, those being the #2 and #6 (I'd give both of those a bit of a downgrade from their numbers because of that... one may stick around, but hard seeing both). The #4 horse also has a bit of that look as well. The #5 may get a nice pace to run into if things heat up up front with those 2/3. This guy has also hit the board in 7 of his last 10 races, including his last 5 straight. He also is coming into this race off a bullet workout a few days ago. Class is a concern with him, as is the way the track was playing last night. Looked like an inside speed bias track to me, so he may have trouble making up ground in the stretch if forced to go wide around the turn (which is likely). But as the biggest longshot in the race, he may be worth trying to get home on the bottom of the exotics.
     
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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    @t6p

    I don't think the #6 horse will be able to run with that #2 horse early, bud. The #2 is capable of running sub 45 second half miles, and even has a sub 44 second one to his credit too. The #6 has been asked to go that fast 5 times over it's last 10 races, and he only has one good race to his credit when doing so. The three most recent times he was asked to do that he has finished off the board in each (7th, 4th, 7th). The #2 is the faster horse of the two. Higher number on the Quirin scale, better early pace figures, and faster fractions based on timed intervals. That's bad news for a horse like the #6 who's good races have come when he has been on the lead. Without it he wilts. The #4 horse has been able to run that pace in the past. At least he was able to when in condition. Have doubts he'll be able to keep up today considering this is his first start of 2018.

    The #2 also has the advantage of having the inside lane of those early speed types. Last night that inside path played very well, and so far the inside seems the place to be today in the two races I've watched from Emerald. He'll be the one of those three that I'll be playing to stick around in 2nd or 3rd.
     
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    @t6p

    Couple of big concerns with this #1 horse here. The first is his age and the pattern to his figures. He's 7 years-old this year and his figures have either stayed the same or declined in each of his last 9 starts. 94, 93, 92, 91, 89, 89, 89, 82, and 80 most recently. Seems the old boy is slowing down. I've also watched a few of his recent races and there's a concern there with the post he's drawn. He doesn't look like he enjoys being inside of other horses or handles the kickback well. There's a similar pattern with the way he's been ridden in the races where he drew inside. The jockey takes him back, waits for room to the outside, then angles the horse out to where he is forced to go wide around the turn. With the way he's been slowing down as he's aged, and the inside post that he probably isn't going to like, this guy is tough to include as a trifecta option. He also gets a new jockey today who may not be familiar with him.
     
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  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    @t6p

    The #3 horse is okay. Not much to like or dislike about that one that's not already captured in his number. His last race was better than his previous one, which came off a layoff, so there's upside there in his 3rd start of his form cycle. I'll use him underneath.

    The race that the #7 put forth last night against a couple of these was terrible and he had no excuses that I saw. He does have races in the his past that gives him a shot to hit the board and he was a big favourite last time out if you're a forgiving type. But I'm not, so I'll pass.

    #8 over #2, #3, #5 over #2, #3, #5?
     
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  8. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Count me in sir. You thinking just trifecta, or should we go for the exacta and super too?
     
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  9. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    We might as well play them all, T. It's only 6 combinations in the super, so we could play that for $2 and hope to get lucky. Why not. For me it'll be the exactas for $10, the trifectas for $5, and then the $2 supers.
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Holy shit, look what you've gone and done to me @t6p. A few months ago I was almost exclusively a conservative win/place bettor that went heavier on the place side of it. A top 2 finish by a single horse was all I was looking for. Now you've got me trying to find not only the winner in a lot of races, but the 2nd and 3rd place finishers as well.
     
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  11. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Haha. Well it is a lot of extra work but based on your results lately, I’m guessing it’s worth it. And if you don’t already agree, I’m sure you will once you crush this super in a little bit.
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Ah, it's not really extra work, bud. I do the numbers for the race once I identify a horse that fits what I'm looking for with a quick browse, but I always do other stuff for every race as well once those are done. I try to look for things that the formula I'm using doesn't or can't catch, and then I always visualize how the race may be ran. I watch an occasional video too. The numbers take care of maybe 80%-85% of the capping for me. But I still consider other factors as well. Especially if I'm going to post it on here for you or others to play. Mind you, I did give this race a little more attention than usual just because, yeah, I want us to crush the absolute shit out of it.

     
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Degenerate $5 win bet coming up for me;

    Race 8 at Emerald Downs - #6 Freiburg

    New pace top. Looks like the controlling speed. 2nd time stakes. Paired his last two figures. 3rd start off a layoff. Top jockey & trainer combination. Good gutsy race against some of these last time when in a pace battle, got squeezed between horse, and then bumped again in stretch. Never quit, beaten only 2 lengths by this race's heavy favourite who had the race shape to his advantage last time. Oh, and currently at 10/1, which is the longest shot on the board. I'll give him a small try.
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Finished a good 2nd at 9/1 and pays me nothing. The #7 horse got by him in the end after hounding him on the turn.
     
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    We're up next in about 15 mins @t6p. In case you need a heads up.
     
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  16. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Meh. The old-timer rebounded and beats us. Sorry T.
     
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  17. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    No biggie Shark. Can’t win em all. You’ll come back even stronger after your break.
     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Sharkey's all new, highly secretive (unless you ask), and very complex (kinda but not really) FCSR is hopefully going to help find some good price horses tomorrow at Parx;


    ==========

    Race 4 at Parx (11:16);

    #1 Street Heat 7/2 - 302.2
    #7 Graves Island 9/5 - 290.0
    #4 The Morning Guys 15/1 289.8
    #2 Hodor 5/1 - 288.8
    #3 Bowman's Beast 10/1 - 286.2
    #1A Wireless Future 7/2 - 283.7
    #5 My Cousin Lou 4/1 - 273.3
    #6 Papa Jones 6/1 - 264.0

    This #4 horse is quite interesting at anything even remotely close to his morning line odds. The first concern with him for me is he is coming off a regressive race, but so are 5 of the other 7 horses in the field, including all the shorter priced horses. And unlike most of them this #4 horse actually has excuses for his last effort. Not one. Not two. But three in total. He had to check entering the turn. He had to check in the stretch. And he also acted up in the gate just before the start of the race, which, having gone back and watched a bunch of his past races, was completely uncommon of him. He's also had positive responses to regressive races in the past as well if you don't want to give him those excuses. This guy has the high racing speed average in the field at a 87, and also has the highest figure at the distance at a 97. He also has a very good record at tomorrow's distance compared to the rest of the field having a 3-3-1 record in 15 starts, 2nd only to the #5 horse. This guy is also a stayer visually (sired by a Belmont winner) who has finished in the top half of the field in his last 7 races, and in 8 of his last 9. He has also gained ground from the stretch to the wire in every one of his last 10 starts as well and has not once been passed late for position in that time. That could be a key since this is a route race, and not a sprint race that he's been involved in most of his recent starts. In some of those sprint races he's been out paced early, and forced to do a lot of work late. But in tomorrow's race there's not a whole lot of early speed signed on at all, so this guy should be sitting a nice trip stalking in 3rd or so just behind whoever does have the lead. If his past history of gaining ground and passing 1 or 2 in the stretch is any indication, this guy is a prime candidate to at least hit the board at big odds and maybe even pull off the upset. Also gets the track's 2nd winningest jockey aboard for the ride. I'll look to play him to win and place.

    ==========

    Race 6 at Parx (12:10);

    #8 Shinkansen 2/1 - 263.2 (suspicious drop in class)
    #7 Haveaniceweekend 8/1 - 251.0
    #5 Empty House 3/1 - 250.6
    #9 Little Sister 6/1 - 248.6
    #4 Frequently 12/1 - 234.4
    #1 Iwishirish 5/1 - 233.1
    #3 Baltimore Beauty 15/1 - 232.8
    #2 Saratiago 15/1 - 219.1
    #6 Wink for Me 20/1 - 200.6

    I'll try to keep this shorter just because it's late, but this #7 horse may have a big say in the outcome of this race tomorrow with the favourite coming in off a 5+ month layoff and with that "suspicious drop in class" notation included in it's PP's. The #7 horse may be the controlling speed in the race. I expect her to be actually unless the #9 horse really want to go from the gate and challenge. But I think the #7 horse is just plain faster early and should get it as she's a stretch out sprinter who's used to being up close in shorter races. If the field leaves her alone she may take them a long way. Maybe even all the way as she isn't terrible at this distance (0-1-2 in 4 starts). She's coming into this great on a great pattern as well including pairing up her last two races. The last time she paired up she jumped forward 12 points on her figure in her next race. Both of her last two races were even better than they look on paper as well, as she was caught in a tough position in both of them and never quit. in her last race she was caught in the bad position as the middle horse of the sandwich all the way from the start to around the turn, and she actually outfinished both of those that had her enclosed like that. In her race before that she was caught on the inside behind horses on the rail in the slop, and once again showed gameness despite having mud covered all over her after having it kicked in her face all race. Her record of 3-8-5 in 26 career starts is the best in the field as far as hitting the board goes as well (2-3-4 in 14 starts at Parx arguably is too). I'll play this one to win and place as well.

    ==========

    Race 10 at Parx (1:58);

    #10 Candy Phil 7/5 - 263.7 (suspicious drop in class)
    #3 Dusty Street 15/1 - 220.8
    #2 Trousseau 8/1 - 212.0
    #8 For Later 12/1 - 212.0
    #4 Lucky Meeting 12/1 - 210.8
    #5 C W Road 5/1 - 203.6
    #7 Schwartzology 6/1 - 202.8
    #9 Julie's Indy 20/1 - 197.6
    #1 River Miss 15/1 - 192.3
    #6 Edfitzamahle'sbar 20/1 - 189.0
    #11 Hazy Daisy 20/1 - 160.2

    I like this #3 horse less than any of the three horses I'm planning to play tomorrow, but she does have a few things going for her including a nice long sustained middle move last time out which also produced what was by far this horse's highest E2 figure over her last 10 races. Also has a nice maintain/improve pattern to her figures as well, which coupled with the middle move, and the bullet workout last week suggest to me that she'll run a good race tomorrow. Whatever a good race is for her. But she may be okay as she does have the 2nd highest figure at this distance for tomorrow's race, 2nd only to the favourite with yet another "suspicious drop in class" notation to it. This #3 horse is also ranked top 3 in almost all the Brisnet categories. 3rd in speed last race. 2nd in back speed. 2nd in current class. 2nd in average class. 3rd in prime power. 2nd in racing speed average. 2nd in average race rating. 2nd in average late pace. 2nd in best late pace. Etc., etc. 2nd best record at this distance in the race as well as far as hitting the board (1-4-3 record in 18 starts). A lot of things have this girl ranked 2nd or 3rd in the race, and unfortunately that may be the best hope for her likeliest outcome. 2nd or 3rd, as the girl has only won twice in 44 career races. Mind you many horses in this race are veteran losers, so somebody has to win. But I'm likely to play this #3 horse more heavily on the place and perhaps show (if the whole, or most, of the field holds together and doesn't scratch) side of things, although with a small win bet to go along with them as well.

    ==========
     
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  19. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Welcome back Shark. Thanks for sharing!
     
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  20. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I'm going to cap the 8th race at Thistledown today as well, T. It's a big field, so there should be some great value to be found. Hopefully our old buddy Matt from Mahoning Valley is calling our winner.

    By the way, I'm just playing the first two horses at Parx to win/place for $10/$15, and then I'll go across the board with that Dusty Street horse in the 10th race there for $5/$10/$10 since there was only one scratch.
     
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