Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Took the two Ass. Down plays
Mo shopping
Lucky lydgate
Bernie
Sunset gables
Own the night


Dont worry about it i knew what i was getting into when i placed the bets.
 
Took the two Ass. Down plays
Mo shopping
Lucky lydgate
Bernie
Sunset gables
Own the night


Dont worry about it i knew what i was getting into when i placed the bets.

After taking a quick look I think you'll be okay, bud. A few of those look like serious win contenders with the other ones being at least borderline win contenders. Might only need one to hit to get your money back. Hopefully you're just playing small as well. Good luck.
 
Nice run by that Gilly Gilly in race 2 at Northlands to get 2nd at 14/1.

These first 7 new pace top horses are 1-2-2 so far with 6 of them having outran their odds.
 
Took the two Ass. Down plays
Mo shopping
Lucky lydgate
Bernie
Sunset gables
Own the night


Dont worry about it i knew what i was getting into when i placed the bets.

Own the Night got it done for us at 9/1, Eat, so you got the only one you need right there to put you into the black.
 
My old buddy #4 Ruble is getting underbet again here in race 1 at Penn National. I'll make a degenerate win bet on him if they're going to allow him to go at at 8/1.
 
My old buddy #4 Ruble is getting underbet again here in race 1 at Penn National. I'll make a degenerate win bet on him if they're going to allow him to go at at 8/1.

Finished a game 2nd as the longest shot in the race.
 
Tomorrow's test races for me. Same $5 win bets.

I zoned in a little bit after going back and doing the numbers for the races today. I had 11 horses today that were within 5% of the top number for each race and they went 3-3-3 in total. I had 15 that weren't within 5% and they only went 0-1-2. Shit like that will happen I guess when you're betting an angle basically blind like I was, so I'll tighten that up tomorrow.

==========

Race 2 at Woodbine (10:29); #3 Mister Nada 12/1

Race 4 at Gulfstream (11:15); #6 Richest Gifts 10/1

Race 1 at Arlington (11:30); Drinkwiththeirish 3/1

Race 6 at Fort Erie (12:50); Get'erdonebud 5/2

Race 8 at Saratoga (2:02); #3 Behavoiral Bias 7/2

Race 3 at Emerald (2:52); #6 Informant 5/2

Race 3 at Presque Isle (3:15); #6 Solitary Jack 8/1

Race 5 at Presque Isle (4:05); #4 Storm On Bye 9/2

Race 10 at Albuquerque (4:15); #3 Amaranta 5/2

Race 6 at Del Mar (4:33); #4 Rinse and Repeat 8/1

==========
 
Threw a #3, #8 over #2, #3, #8 over #2, #3, #7, #8 trifecta at the last minute in race 2 at Woodbine.
 
Missed by a half a length because of course I did.
 
#6 over #1 over #2, #5, #8 trifectas in race 3 at Woodbine.
 
Trying a #1 over #2, #5, #8, #9 super in race 4 at Woodbine.
 
Tomorrow's test races for me. Same $5 win bets.

I zoned in a little bit after going back and doing the numbers for the races today. I had 11 horses today that were within 5% of the top number for each race and they went 3-3-3 in total. I had 15 that weren't within 5% and they only went 0-1-2. Shit like that will happen I guess when you're betting an angle basically blind like I was, so I'll tighten that up tomorrow.

==========

Race 2 at Woodbine (10:29); #3 Mister Nada 12/1

Race 4 at Gulfstream (11:15); #6 Richest Gifts 10/1

Race 1 at Arlington (11:30); Drinkwiththeirish 3/1

Race 6 at Fort Erie (12:50); Get'erdonebud 5/2

Race 8 at Saratoga (2:02); #3 Behavoiral Bias 7/2

Race 3 at Emerald (2:52); #6 Informant 5/2

Race 3 at Presque Isle (3:15); #6 Solitary Jack 8/1

Race 5 at Presque Isle (4:05); #4 Storm On Bye 9/2

Race 10 at Albuquerque (4:15); #3 Amaranta 5/2

Race 6 at Del Mar (4:33); #4 Rinse and Repeat 8/1

==========

Nice run by Richest Gifts in race 4 at Gulfstream to get it done for me at 8/1. Just got his nose in front at the line.
 
Some small #12 over #5, #9, #10, over #5, #6, #7, #9, #10 trifectas in race 5 at Woodbine.
 
Just finished reviewing the PP's for the last couple of days. I only kept them for the 21 horses that were within 5% on the numbers, though. But I found some things that were interesting.


- The horses that drew the inside half of the field were 1-2-4 out of 13 starters. The horses who drew the outer half were 3-2-2 out of 8 starters

- The horses who were either an E or E/P running style were 3-4-4 out of 13 starters. The horses who were either a P or S running style were 1-0-2 out of 8 starters.

- The horses who were 4/1 or higher on the morning line were 3-2-5 out of 11 starters. The horses who were below 4/1 on the morning line were 1-2-1 out of 10 starters.

- The horses who were within 3% on the numbers were 4-4-2 out of 15 starters. The horses who were between 3% and 5% were 0-0-4 out of 6 starters.


So basically what this sample size is telling me is that I should be looking for good outside speed horses at overlaid odds. i.e. These past couple of days have been a giant waste of time. Mind you, not all was lost. I did learn how to spell Albuquerque without having to look it up.
 
@ImNotSurpisedDonks!

Hastings just saw a 11 year-old horse run the 100th race of his career, and the old bugger won.
Man, that's why I love you Shark. Greatest memory and most thoughtful on Sherdog. You are a special guy, your wife's a lucky woman.

On to the Travers we go!

* ps I'm rooting for the filly, but I don't think a medaglia d'oro bred filly can keep up with the boys. Wish Monomoy Girl was running.

**pps got bucked off and stepped on by a colt I was breaking today. Lots of Jack in me now to help w/ the pain. Thankfully he just got the meat on my thigh and not the bone. Horses hurt so much but wouldn't give them up for anything.
 
Man, that's why I love you Shark. Greatest memory and most thoughtful on Sherdog. You are a special guy, your wife's a lucky woman.

On to the Travers we go!

* ps I'm rooting for the filly, but I don't think a medaglia d'oro bred filly can keep up with the boys. Wish Monomoy Girl was running.

**pps got bucked off and stepped on by a colt I was breaking today. Lots of Jack in me now to help w/ the pain. Thankfully he just got the meat on my thigh and not the bone. Horses hurt so much but wouldn't give them up for anything.

I can't wait for the Travers being it's my favourite race of the year, although the news about Hofburg having to miss the race with a fever is certainly a bummer. Makes Good Magic's job that much easier. But it'll still be a great race regardless. Should be plenty of play against horses in there who'll be overbet like Mendelssohn, Gronkowski, and Wonder Gadot, who I think will be up against it from a class standpoint and not so much her breeding (Rachel did fine against the boys with the same sire). Beating up some on some Canadian tomato cans like she has been doing recently doesn't prove much of anything.

Cheers man. Hopefully you get to feeling better soon. That sounds painful as hell. I've been nursing an injury myself after having busted one of my toes on Tuesday. Had to take time off work because of that, but us folk up here in Kamloops can't even go outside for any time anyways with all the smoke from the forest fires around here. It's terrible. So I'm stuck in the house doing this horse racing shit just to keep myself busy with something to do.
 
Back
Top