Kim Jong Un might be a master strategist

[InternetHero]

I believe Kim grew up in Switzerland attending their top schools

Yes.

He also spent his first years of rule murdering people over grudges, gorging on fatty foods till he allegedly got teh diabeetus, and playing around on his own theme park roller coaster.

Given the history and influence of his loathsome family, hmm, no one on earth may know what he is thinking or doing at this point.

 

[ndwolfwood]

no one on earth may know what he is thinking or doing at this point.

Few understand genius

 

[PolishHeadlock]

Yes.

He also spent his first years of rule murdering people over grudges, gorging on fatty foods till he allegedly got teh diabeetus, and playing around on his own theme park roller coaster.

Given the history and influence of his loathsome family, hmm, no one on earth may know what he is thinking or doing at this point.

So you would say he isn't honorable?

 

[InternetHero]

50 years from now: United Korea is raping us economically!

An epic hypothetical.

How long wold it take to rehabilitate North Korea as part of a united Korea?

My guess would be closer to 75 years.

Several generations are utterly brainwashed and disconnected from the world, and the infrastructure, education apparatus, and economic system are troubled to put it mildly.

The Germans did a fine job of reunification, but that was like fixing up an old car with a few problems, Korean reunification is like rebuilding an old car from the frame up.

 

[PolishHeadlock]

Unknown.

I do know that China is spooked, and sending their top diplomat to Pyongyang soon.

The Washington, Beijing, and Seoul have no idea what is going on yet, and North Korean media is being really cagey about Pyongyang's intentions.

Perhaps I will look into the matter today and make a few educated guesses.

I think it's probably as simple as the fucked up their testing site and can no longer test nukes there.

also all of the shit they were doing over the past year with the rockets is fucking expensive and they are a super poor country.

The don't have the money or ability to test any more weapons.

So now they come hat in hand saying they won't do something they no longer can do and promise to shut down a site they can no longer use in exchange for sanctions relief and aid.

 

[Trotsky]

I believe Kim grew up in Switzerland attending their top schools

It seems pretty undeniable at this point that he's co-opting the Chinese approach, albeit more publicly, and lapping up ceded US diplomacy.

His grandfather seemed smart enough, his father not so much, but he's really played everything damn near perfectly. And the world is so preoccupied with Trump's stupidity and incompetence that it's not even calling out Kim's transparent charm campaign.

After this, I also don't know how anyone can logically think that military obsequiousness and forthright disarmament is smart when dealing with the United States. The actors who didn't back down ended up better for it (Cuba, Iran, North Korea) and the actors who played nice ended up getting okey doked by the US (Libya, Iraq, Yugoslavia).

My hate of Mao or of Trump?

I don't really hate either. Both are narcissists who are/were too stubborn to notice their informational deficits and were manipulated by their intellectual and strategic betters in these cases.

 

[InternetHero]

So you would say he isn't honorable?

Three weeks ago I would declare him the worst leader on earth and a repugnant pig-dog who should be Mussolini'd on the highest tree in all of "best Korea."

That is probably still true, maybe, I guess?

Every so often in history someone wakes up, says "everything is broken...," and tries to fix it.

Is that Kim Jong Un? Probably not, this is probably all a ruse, and at the same time every new day of the ruse brings us closer to something different and strange. At the very least some things will probably change for the better...

Now, if Kim Jong Un and a few Party loyalists had a full change of heart, and are really committed to suddenly bringing down the iron curtain... China would probably do their best not to allow that to happen.

By massive economic pressure, or else bullet/uranium cocktail unless they get major concessions in the Pacific. Therefore, whether more ruse or more real, Un had better watch out. This is very serious geopolitical business.

 

[Magooglie]

An epic hypothetical.

How long wold it take to rehabilitate North Korea as part of a united Korea?

My guess would be closer to 75 years.

Several generations are utterly brainwashed and disconnected from the world, and the infrastructure, education apparatus, and economic system are troubled to put it mildly.

The Germans did a fine job of reunification, but that was like fixing up an old car with a few problems, Korean reunification is like rebuilding an old car from the frame up.

South Korea went from shit hole to super fast internet pretty quickly. Imagine if there were only 1-2 million North Koreans left. And South koreans just started expanding North and having more kids.

 

[InternetHero]

I think it's probably as simple as the fucked up their testing site and can no longer test nukes there.

also all of the shit they were doing over the past year with the rockets is fucking expensive and they are a super poor country.

The don't have the money or ability to test any more weapons.

So now they come hat in hand saying they won't do something they no longer can do and promise to shut down a site they can no longer use in exchange for sanctions relief and aid.

That's a rational analysis but I do not think that is the case.

The main reason not is that North Korea already organizes their budget towards feeding the military and nuclear weapons testing departments.

If they decided to buy bread instead, do anything to join the international community at all, hey, that would be a major sea change, and unlike in a liberal democracy not a change you can undue.

What the mouthpieces of the Party say is the law, the reality, and therefore the further the North slides towards something the more strain it puts on the propaganda.

Just acknowledging the South and especially the USA as having progress is a big deal.

 

[lilelvis]

It seems pretty undeniable at this point that he's co-opting the Chinese approach, albeit more publicly, and lapping up ceded US diplomacy.

His grandfather seemed smart enough, his father not so much, but he's really played everything damn near perfectly. And the world is so preoccupied with Trump's stupidity and incompetence that it's not even calling out Kim's transparent charm campaign.

After this, I also don't know how anyone can logically think that military obsequiousness and forthright disarmament is smart when dealing with the United States. The actors who didn't back down ended up better for it (Cuba, Iran, North Korea) and the actors who played nice ended up getting okey doked by the US (Libya, Iraq, Yugoslavia).



My hate of Mao or of Trump?

I don't really hate either. Both are narcissists who are/were too stubborn to notice their informational deficits and were manipulated by their intellectual and strategic betters in these cases.

Maybe the U.S....

 

[InternetHero]

South Korea went from shit hole to super fast internet pretty quickly. Imagine if there were only 1-2 million North Koreans left. And South koreans just started expanding North and having more kids.

I think it took a few decades for South Korea to bounce back, and while a rural and agrarian society scorched by war they had a lot of help.

North Korea might get that help, however, the population is in much worse shape.

That's a good point though.

In the short term the effects would drag down the regional economies, and doubly if there is any kind of refugee crisis.

 

[Magooglie]

I think it took a few decades for South Korea to bounce back, and while a rural and agrarian society scorched by war they had a lot of help.

North Korea might get that help, however, the population is in much worse shape.

That's a good point though.

In the short term the effects would drag down the regional economies, and doubly if there is any kind of refugee crisis.

This is a big opportunity for China to slow Korea's roll. China is about to have a lot of things it wants.

 

[Trotsky]

South Korea went from shit hole to super fast internet pretty quickly. Imagine if there were only 1-2 million North Koreans left. And South koreans just started expanding North and having more kids.

I think we're marginalizing the dependence of the Koreas economic development on imperialist benefactors.

Let's not forget that for most of the Cold War, North Korea was the "economic miracle" (from being propped up by the Soviets) while South Korea was the shit hole. Now, in the post-Soviet era, North Korea (which never had a capable economy in the first place) was starved by the remaining super power while South Korea was given very rosy treatment.

 

[PolishHeadlock]

That's a rational analysis but I do not think that is the case.

The main reason not is that North Korea already organizes their budget towards feeding the military and nuclear weapons testing departments.

If they decided to buy bread instead, do anything to join the international community at all, hey, that would be a major sea change, and unlike in a liberal democracy not a change you can undue.

What the mouthpieces of the Party say is the law, the reality, and therefore the further the North slides towards something the more strain it puts on the propaganda.

Just acknowledging the South and especially the USA as having progress is a big deal.

I should have noted I think this would only be a temporary change until they are able to test again. and get some coin in their coffers.

I have no illusions of Kim welcoming the IAEA in for inspections.

 

[Magooglie]

I think we're marginalizing the dependence of the Koreas economic development on imperialist benefactors.

Let's not forget that for most of the Cold War, North Korea was the "economic miracle" (from being propped up by the Soviets) while South Korea was the shit hole. Now, in the post-Soviet era, North Korea (which never had a capable economy in the first place) was starved by the remaining super power while South Korea was given very rosy treatment.

Cold War had people believing a lot of things. But South Korea is entrepreneurial and hard working. They're not a smoke screen.

 

[InternetHero]

His grandfather seemed smart enough, his father not so much, but he's really played everything damn near perfectly. And the world is so preoccupied with Trump's stupidity and incompetence that it's not even calling out Kim's transparent charm campaign.

His mens rea in this latest international crime has not yet been determined.

Although, while being guardedly hopeful there is real diplomatic opportunity here, turning to say that Kim is a genius due to his charm is presumptuous.

He was utterly isolated and the North Koreans were reportedly rattled that the U.S. was able to sabotage some of their missiles, and playing brinkmanship over whether we would shoot them down. Some of that was stupid, with the Trump Administration that was a given (Little Rocket Man and comparing button sizes,) yet the presence of our military exercises and heavy bomber flights riled those jimmies further.

If anything, North Korea blinked at the pressure... potentially... possibly, and, we know the USA (unless a super secret double probation deal was done) has given nothing.

What are we looking at in the way of U.S. concessions? None so far that we know of.

And the North? Through Western eyes it appears charming to a few people and some media analysts in the West, yet not in the East, that is not what is seen, and the North by definition is not acting out of strength.

- Now the official war is set to end (A big deal, probably)

- Serious rhetoric about ending... not cutting back, but ending the whole program (China is gotten to by this, rhetoric or not)

- Serious rhetoric about unification and deescalation at the border (China is even more gotten to by this, and are shocked)

- An unthinkable summit with the South where all the optics look good and warm (This is also shocking considering how one would expect the leader of the North to act against a rival being "enslaved by a puppet" (USA), see President Xi's handshake with Abe. These things really resonate in face cultures.)

- Now? A direct meeting with Trump is in the works, possibly at the DMZ. One of these events would make for a "hmm..." moment, all of them, and more that I have forgotten are really nuts.

All of this has come out of the North, with no serious demands for disarmament, or China's wishes for the end of military drills, intimidate removal of US troops, leaving the Pacific and disbanding the Pacific fleet and shooting the spare parts off to the moon... I made up the last part of course, but that is the kind of thing North Korea asks for with China's typical wink.

Strange times in Pyongyang.