Likelihood: Trump loses in 2020, accepts the vote as legit, and cleanly transfers power?

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Trotsky, Dec 4, 2017.

  1. Trotsky Yellow Card

    Trotsky
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    If you were a betting person, what would you place the odds of Donald Trump running for reelection in 2020, losing the electoral college vote, and then (i) publicly conceding and (ii) acknowledging the election as legitimate and untainted? This would produce a sequence of events akin to every other change in administration in US history, notwithstanding impeachment or assassination.

    I figure it's (80% that he makes it through four years without impeachment) x (70% that he runs for reelection) x (75% that he loses the election) x (40% that he recognizes the election as legitimate) x (80% that he nevertheless yields to a transfer of power to the next administration).

    .8 x .7 x .75 x .4 x .8, for a grand total of 13%

    And, yes, this is a un-substantive, vapid Trump discussion.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
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  2. Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

    Amerikuracana
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    CNN has done to the left what fox news did to the right.. I can't believe how easy it was.
     
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  3. JohnnySagebrush Green Belt

    JohnnySagebrush
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    In 3 years I fully expect Trump to be holding press conferences wearing only underwear and screaming obscenity-laden phrases of gibberish.
     
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  4. HomerThompson President-elect

    HomerThompson
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    Trump won't make it to 2020.
     
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  5. HomerThompson President-elect

    HomerThompson
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    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Trotsky Yellow Card

    Trotsky
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    I know. I'm so hysterical and illogical rn.

    EDIT: Also, get out of here, Fox News viewers never asked questions based on statistics and political customs. They were asking whether the chances of Obama being the antichrist were more or less than broccoli percent.
     
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  7. LogicalInsanity Gold Belt

    LogicalInsanity
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    I would place it at 500-1 odds...

    Not because I believe Trump will peacefully and graciously accept defeat...

    But rather, the democrats don't have any viable candidate on the horizon..
    Who do they have? Warren? Sanders??

    And if Hillary runs again, that's a guarantee victory for Trump
     
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    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
  8. Trotsky Yellow Card

    Trotsky
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    In terms of likelihood of beating Trump?

    Sanders, Warren, and Booker would all be considerable favorites, I would imagine.

    I agree that he would most likely beat Clinton again.
     
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  9. VivaRevolution Double Yellow Card

    VivaRevolution
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    I figure there is a less than 1% chance that trumps approval ratings are above 35% by 2020 elections, and that the RNC would sabotage him, and drive those numbers below 20% If he insisted on running, guaranteeing he would lose in the primary, to a more establishment friendly version of Donald trump.
     
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  10. hillelslovak87 Red Belt

    hillelslovak87
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    Now this is pod racing!!!
    It's not looking like he wont resign and skirt out of his liability, so I doubt he even makes it to the next election.
     
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  11. snakedafunky Black Belt

    snakedafunky
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    As much as I think he is an incompetent fool. If he loses in 2020, I think he will go out like any other one-term president
    I mean the guy doesn't actually believe its rigged against him or it is fake new he just uses that.
    He also doesn't have the balls to challenge it.
     
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  12. panamaican Senior Moderator

    panamaican
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    That's actually an interesting question. Given everything we've seen so far, if Trump loses a reelection bid, does he transfer power gracefully? I'd gamble on "no".

    I find it interesting because one of the hallmarks of our continued success with democracy is that our power transfers go smoothly. I've never considered what happens if someone doesn't go gracefully and quietly into the night.
     
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  13. LogicalInsanity Gold Belt

    LogicalInsanity
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    I forgot about Sanders...i edited my post.

    Without the Clinton machine sabotaging his campaign, he might stand a chance
     
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  14. Satsui Ryu Brown Belt

    Satsui Ryu
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    I can't stand him, but I think he takes 2020. His base is diehard and are very motivated simply by someone who is not on the left. and the Dems don't really seem to have a very worthwhile candidate at the point to grab moderates. The latter may change, but Trump winning again would not surprise me at all.
     
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  15. Culombo Green Belt

    Culombo
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    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

    Amerikuracana
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    They thought he was going to retain power and call himself emporer Obama.. Like you think about Trump. Stop thinking only in the political abstract they have created for you; it's meant to dumb you down, and you obviously have brains buried under that mass of political bias that don't benefit from that process.
     
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  17. hillelslovak87 Red Belt

    hillelslovak87
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    Now this is pod racing!!!
    I would shade the percentages more towards him making it to 2020 if he didn't keep popping off at the mouth like a crazy person while under investigation for serious, impeachable offenses...
     
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  18. IGIT Black Belt

    IGIT
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    hello Trostky, i am IGIT,

    i put the chance that Mr. Trump will engage in a (relatively) clean transfer of power if he falls in 2020 at around zero, but i don't think he'll engage in anything too bizarre.

    however...

    should he fabricate some weird story about how the election was stolen and the ballot results are phony and (cue ominous sounding strings and jerky, threatening camera movements) GEORGE SOROS was behind some skullduggery, i'm betting a huge portion of the GOP electorate would enthusiastically sign on to it.

    - IGIT
     
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    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
  19. hillelslovak87 Red Belt

    hillelslovak87
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    Now this is pod racing!!!
    In the last day, he literally implied that he was above the law. He fills his inner circle with family members, and has stated on multiple occasions that our system of checks and balances is archaic.

    We're not in the same boat as of now....
     
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  20. Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

    Amerikuracana
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    No. Warren and Booker = No. The left is so deep in pandering to non-whites that they can't see that they politically need to pander to whites a little bit.
     
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