Likelihood: Trump loses in 2020, accepts the vote as legit, and cleanly transfers power?

[Trotsky]

If Warren runs she will represent two minority groups - feminists and the Cherokees.

And genius-level women who looked remarkably like old ladies from a fairly young age.

Underrated demographic imo.

 

[IGIT]

Hey Igit, it's been a while..

Strangeness wouldn't surprise me. Attempting to scrap the democratic process? Not unless he has Kim Jong Un level approval ratings.

All that aside, I doubt I Trump will even try for a 2nd term.

hello Bald1,

i expect strangeness, and i expect him to flirt with staying in office if he loses, just to stir the pot. normally, this would be inconceivable stuff, but for Mr. Trump it would just be "garden variety strange" - but since we'll all be used to it (we're used to it already), i don't think it'll be a big deal.

- IGIT

 

[HereticBD]

We're in "Obama third term" territory here...

 

[M3t4tr0n]

We're in "Obama third term" territory here...

 

[IGIT]

Does the radical left accept his win? That's the question.

I think the right and Trump accept an L much more graciously and in respect for the voting process than Democrat supporters.

hi splendica,

and you say this, why?

because when you think of Mr. Trump, you think, "gracious in defeat", right?

- IGIT

 

[Pinyin]

Trump won't make it to 2020.

lol another triggered shitlib. step out of your bubble back into reality.

 

[Trotsky]

lol another triggered shitlib. step out of your bubble back into reality.

Wtf....is that a young Muammar Gaddafi?

That has to be the most random gif I have ever seen.

 

[IGIT]

Whites are affected by macroeconomics to the same extent as nonwhites. Do you at least agree that voters should be expected to reasonably vote in line with their own interests instead of requiring racist rhetoric?

Also, if "pander to whites" necessitates calling undocumented immigrants murderers and rapists, misrepresenting administration of the refugee process, completely lying about statistics regarding undocumented immigrants, pretending that dead technologies of yesteryear are going to make profitable persons without abilities that are valuable in the current marketplace, and pretending that all Muslims are evil while turning a blind eye to millions of them suffering in hellholes of our country's design.....well, fuck, might as well pull the plug on this country right now.

While I agree that Democrats have lost their way in reestablishing their value to poor post-industrial white communities and communities formerly represented by labor unions, I don't think New Deal rhetoric, however valid it may be, will be enough to appease the "pander to whites" requests.

hello Trotsky,

good post.

i too, am confused as to what "pander to whites" means, exactly.

maybe would could weigh their SAT scores higher, so they don't have to keep competing with asian americans to get their Ivy League cards punched?

or maybe get them more representation in the House and the Senate?

*shrugs*

i have no idea.

- IGIT

 

[PolishHeadlock]

I would not expect that to be likely at all. Like <5% unlikely.

I cannot imagine a GOP persons beating him with GOP voters. He already dominated that field something nasty in 2016, and his support hasn't withered all that much. The only quasi-feasible contender would be Romney, and I don't think his chances would be very good at all. The usual suspects (Cruz, Rubio, Paul Ryan) would get put through the wood chipper.

Corker and Kasich will probably challenge him.

Romney can beat him I think.

 

[PolishHeadlock]

I just read an interesting and related post on r/askhistorians.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistori...hich_was_a_bigger_surprise_george_washington/


AziMeeshka 509 points 3 days ago

It is really interesting once you realize how much of our system (and every political system really) relies on norms rather than actual laws or procedural rules. Much of what we have now is less a result of the constitution itself and more about how things just happened to work out along the way.

I think there is an interesting argument to be made that actual rules and laws are much less important than political norms. If norms degrade, such as in a country where open bribery becomes commonplace, laws are either ignored or repealed. In a system with a healthy tradition and a solid set of political norms laws and rules are almost unnecessary. The laws get written if someone tries to break those norms or test the boundaries of acceptable behavior just like when FDR decided to test the norm of only serving two consecutive presidential terms.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I don't dislike his chances for reelection -- if he can stay out of formal wars his odds would probably be around 60 percent. All the boon from the tax reform will be upfront, according to the oxford automation study job increases will be happening before the switch over in 2025-30 -- markets will continue to do well. The economy will be in good shape by 2020. 1 term presidents are fairly rare and he has a massive donation base. He also will be the sitting president for the next census, which may redraw voting districts -- I don't think the left will sway back the rust belt.

If he does lose -- I don't think he will resist much beyond superficial tweets about collusion and nefarious plotting. He already got what he wanted with the glory of winning and he's prime to start a new media outlet when he returns to private life.

 

[ocfightfan]

Hopefully he can set up his totalitarian dictatorship before then so it won't be an issue.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/donald-trump-data-pivit-2016-election/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-are-approaching-zero/?utm_term=.0765985d6b42

 

[Trotsky]

Corker and Kasich will probably challenge him.

Romney can beat him I think.

I would expect Kasich. I'm not sure about Corker. He'd be staring down one of the most humiliating electoral defeats in history in possibly losing to Trump in Tennessee given his approval ratings were pretty bad even before he announced he wouldn't seek reelection.

For Kasich to be viable, there would have to had been a huge moral awakening in the GOP voter base, and I don't think so much as a heartbeat has registered on that front. Further, they would have to concede their fully-blossomed lust for a strongman figure to accept Kasich.

Romney is the question mark. He's saved face better than any of the big names, has done so without pissing off Trump's base, and has the appeal of drawing on anti-Obama sentiments from being the guy who faced him head-to-head in 2012. But I would not be surprised to see him get the Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio treatment from Trump and it completely emasculate him in the eyes of the GOP mouth breathers.

 

[IGIT]

I don't dislike his chances for reelection -- if he can stay out of formal wars his odds would probably be around 60 percent.

hi there JTF,

i think that if he is in the middle of a war (and by that i don't mean our now perpetual "war on terror"), he will be re-elected.

100%.

there's nothing like war to obscure grave, policy deficiencies.

- IGIT

 

[hillelslovak87]

We're in "Obama third term" territory here...

Actually, we're in "Obama is leading the deep state takedown of our paragon." territory.

 

[PolishHeadlock]

I would expect Kasich. I'm not sure about Corker. He'd be staring down one of the most humiliating electoral defeats in history in possibly losing to Trump in Tennessee given his approval ratings were pretty bad even before he announced he wouldn't seek reelection.

For Kasich to be viable, there would have to had been a huge moral awakening in the GOP voter base, and I don't think so much as a heartbeat has registered on that front. Further, they would have to concede their fully-blossomed lust for a strongman figure to accept Kasich.

Romney is the question mark. He's saved face better than any of the big names, has done so without pissing off Trump's base, and has the appeal of drawing on anti-Obama sentiments from being the guy who faced him head-to-head in 2012. But I would not be surprised to see him get the Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio treatment from Trump and it completely emasculate him in the eyes of the GOP mouth breathers.

Jeb was completely impotent in the debates and it was disgraceful. Rubio was outed as a token Hispanic.

In the 2012 GOP debates Newt went after Romney hard in the first debate. Romney came back and beat up on Newt in every debate after that.

 

[Scott Parker 27]

I can't stand him, but I think he takes 2020. His base is diehard and are very motivated simply by someone who is not on the left. and the Dems don't really seem to have a very worthwhile candidate at the point to grab moderates. The latter may change, but Trump winning again would not surprise me at all.

No way. I think that trump actually being elected to president woke a lot of people up to the fact that their vote counts. We are already seeing a rebound effect against trump in the form of long term red states becoming blue.

 

[forum poster]

I can't stand him, but I think he takes 2020. His base is diehard and are very motivated simply by someone who is not on the left. and the Dems don't really seem to have a very worthwhile candidate at the point to grab moderates. The latter may change, but Trump winning again would not surprise me at all.

One of the factors was Democrats not turning up because they didn't much care for Clinton. They probably assumed she would win. I'm going to guess that not many will be that apathetic again. Where as the Trump voters saw it as a once in a lifetime opportunity that they wouldn't get again.

 

[Trotsky]

Jeb was completely impotent in the debates and it was disgraceful. Rubio was outed as a token Hispanic.

In the 2012 GOP debates Newt went after Romney hard in the first debate. Romney came back and beat up on Newt in every debate after that.

I guess I just don't recall the 2012 primaries all that well. All I remember is Rick Perry's ineptitude, Santorum's creepy fetus story, and Herman Cain being the stupidest piece of shit on history's side of Trump. But I know that my bourgeois liberal East coast law school friends still think fairly highly of Romney. He gave a speech last year at my alma mater and was well received, to the extent that a shameless self-promoter posing for selfies and dodging substantive questions could be. (Seriously, though, he had the school mention in the event email that he was welcome to posing for selfies).

I still think Rubio, due mostly to sheer circumstance, retains his spot as the party's future and comes out the other side. I despise him more than any politician not named Mitch McConnell, so I hope I am wrong.

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

I think the chance of Trump yielding peacefully transferring power to the next elected administration is 100%. I think the chance of him conceding defeat publicly is also very high, and I think he'd do it on the night of the election. I think the chance of him going all Al Gore and lawyering up to settle the election in court is slim.