Likelihood: Trump loses in 2020, accepts the vote as legit, and cleanly transfers power?

Palis said:
lol you guys are so scared of Trump
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And those pesky Russians!

think-of-the-children.gif
 
Trotsky said:
If you were a betting person, what would you place the odds of Donald Trump running for reelection in 2020, losing the electoral college vote, and then (i) publicly conceding and (ii) acknowledging the election as legitimate and untainted? This would produce a sequence of events akin to every other change in administration in US history, notwithstanding impeachment or assassination.

I figure it's (80% that he makes it through four years without impeachment) x (70% that he runs for reelection) x (75% that he loses the election) x (40% that he recognizes the election as legitimate) x (80% that he nevertheless yields to a transfer of power to the next administration).

.8 x .7 x .75 x .4 x .8, for a grand total of 13%

And, yes, this is a un-substantive, vapid Trump discussion.
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3 more years @Trotsky snowflake buttercup.
Remember what the polls said in 2016.
 
Satsui Ryu said:
I can't stand him, but I think he takes 2020. His base is diehard and are very motivated simply by someone who is not on the left. and the Dems don't really seem to have a very worthwhile candidate at the point to grab moderates. The latter may change, but Trump winning again would not surprise me at all.
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It would me. He eeked out a victory against the worst candidate in history, which might lead a rational person to believe he was the 2nd worst candidate in history.
 
Making odds up, I think 65% chance he runs for re-election. 30% chance he wins (this might be generous).

98% he would accept the result and move on if he were to lose. Though this would depend on how much he loses by. If he was up against a Biden type and lost in a landslide, he would be beyond ridiculed by everyone across the political spectrum if he did not accept defeat.
 
Here is a question for people.

Do you think the anti-establishment wave that carried trump to office, will be stronger, the same, or weaker?

Because funny thing. 3 more years of establishment Republican policy making, will turn trump from an anti-establishment outsider, to a establishment insider in the eyes of the public.
 
Bald1 said:
This is just as idiotic as when Ripskater thought Obama was going to demand a 3rd term. Neither guy has the support of the population, military, or any branch of the government for such a thing. Pure foolishness.
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There's some truth to this, even plenty of truth to it, but it is clearly not "just as idiotic". It would be "just as idiotic" if Obama was as idiotic as Trump is. Reasonable people know Obama is not comparable to Trump. Obama isn't a completely unhinged retard like Trump is. I mean, Obama would never even be questioned if he would accept the results of an election, because there's an understanding that he's an actual adult. He wouldn't say shit like "I will accept the result....if I win" while spouting off about "fake news", and making up shit about illegal votes etc, and telling the world what a great journalist Alex Jones is.
 
Bald1 said:
This is just as idiotic as when Ripskater thought Obama was going to demand a 3rd term. Neither guy has the support of the population, military, or any branch of the government for such a thing. Pure foolishness.
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It's more likely he would claim the Russians switched and controlled the outcome and demand a investigation. Then he would probably write a book and tour the country explaining why it was every ones else's fault but his.
 
JohnnySagebrush said:
In 3 years I fully expect Trump to be holding press conferences wearing only underwear and screaming obscenity-laden phrases of gibberish.
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And he'd still beat Hilary. Because she'll be dead by then:)

Joking aside, I don't see Trump trying for a second term. Too much like hard work.
 
VivaRevolution said:
Here is a question for people.

Do you think the anti-establishment wave that carried trump to office, will be stronger, the same, or weaker?

Because funny thing. 3 more years of establishment Republican policy making, will turn trump from an anti-establishment outsider, to a establishment insider in the eyes of the public.
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That's a great question. I really don't know. We need another year to really see how everything plays out.
 
Trotsky said:
In terms of likelihood of beating Trump?

Sanders, Warren, and Booker would all be considerable favorites, I would imagine.

I agree that he would most likely beat Clinton again.
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Oh you poor brainwashed sheeple.
 
VivaRevolution said:
Here is a question for people.

Do you think the anti-establishment wave that carried trump to office, will be stronger, the same, or weaker?

Because funny thing. 3 more years of establishment Republican policy making, will turn trump from an anti-establishment outsider, to a establishment insider in the eyes of the public.
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This is actually a pretty interesting topic and not one that I have given a great deal of thought
 
HomerThompson said:
That's a great question. I really don't know. We need another year to really see how everything plays out.
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People are still focusing on the theatre of the tweets, and outrageous statements. It can't hold for 4 years, it has already long ago lost its novelty.

Sooner or later the fact that his legislative agenda could have had Jeb bush's name on it, and no one would blink an eye, will become apparent.
 
He will likely win in 2020, the DNC lost a lot of credibility over the last two years and unless they plan on pandering to minorities by nudging Michelle Obama to run, I see more L's in their foreseeable future.
 
Viva said:
He will likely win in 2020, the DNC lost a lot of credibility over the last two years and unless they plan on pandering to minorities by nudging Michelle Obama to run, I see more L's in their foreseeable future.
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Honestly? I think the odds of Michelle Obama running are near zero and certainly don't see her as a Democratic Party savior. Given Trump's approval ratings and farcical behavior, i don't like his odds against credible opponents. Three years is a lot of time for someone reasonable to pop up, time will tell.
 
VivaRevolution said:
Here is a question for people.

Do you think the anti-establishment wave that carried trump to office, will be stronger, the same, or weaker?

Because funny thing. 3 more years of establishment Republican policy making, will turn trump from an anti-establishment outsider, to a establishment insider in the eyes of the public.
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I'm unconvinced that the core of his supporters actually care about being antiestablishment, or they would have abandoned him months ago.
 
CEROVFC said:
Honestly? I think the odds of Michelle Obama running are near zero and certainly don't see her as a Democratic Party savior. Given Trump's approval ratings and farcical behavior, i don't like his odds against credible opponents. Three years is a lot of time for someone reasonable to pop up, time will tell.
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Which credible opponents are you referring to?

Trump went up against the Clinton political team, one of the most fierce and powerful political entities in the western world, and managed to win admidst a slew controversies and blatant media shilling.

I think 2020 will be a cakewalk for the Trump team honestly.
 
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