Likelihood: Trump loses in 2020, accepts the vote as legit, and cleanly transfers power?

[VivaRevolution]

The real question is how will the left react to a second term?

Yes, the American people are loving Bush's legislation, and a circus to distract from the same old Republican policies.

MABA. Make America Bush Again.

 

[unimackpass]

It's like trying to predict the weather in the Aleutian Islands in the winter, the variables are off the chart.
Will the tax breaks boost business growth, purchasing power and hiring causing the economy to continue to grow? He will be a hero.
If the economy tanks, not so much.
Then you have N Korea issues that could push his popularity massively either direction.
Same with the Middle East especially if he moves on the Jerusalem issue trending presently.
If the DNC keeps imploding that's potentially a impacting factor.
If the Russian issue runs out of gas the equal and opposite reaction will be more than equal.
If the..
Well anyway I have no idea where it will end up by then.

 

[WTF2008]

If you were a betting person, what would you place the odds of Donald Trump running for reelection in 2020, losing the electoral college vote, and then (i) publicly conceding and (ii) acknowledging the election as legitimate and untainted? This would produce a sequence of events akin to every other change in administration in US history, notwithstanding impeachment or assassination.

I figure it's (80% that he makes it through four years without impeachment) x (70% that he runs for reelection) x (75% that he loses the election) x (40% that he recognizes the election as legitimate) x (80% that he nevertheless yields to a transfer of power to the next administration).

.8 x .7 x .75 x .4 x .8, for a grand total of 13%

And, yes, this is a un-substantive, vapid Trump discussion.

I'll agree with the vapid part. Trump will be 74-ish by then and sick from winning.

 

[unimackpass]

I'll agree with the vapid part. Trump will be 74-ish by then and sick from winning.

It might be what keeps him alive. I have a cousin that is a workaholic and no matter how much money he has in the bank or how many boats he has built it's never enough. Go on a vacation with him and he's totally bored in a matter of days.
Just sold a landing craft he built a few years ago and is now designing a bigger one.
Trump ran partly because people laughed at the idea so it could be a deciding factor once again. Might do it out of spite.

 

[WTF2008]

It might be what keeps him alive. I have a cousin that is a workaholic and no matter how much money he has in the bank or how many boats he has built it's never enough. Go on a vacation with him and he's totally bored in a matter of days.
Just sold a landing craft he built a few years ago and is now designing a bigger one.
Trump ran partly because people laughed at the idea so it could be a deciding factor once again. Might do it out of spite.

Lol. Spite 2020.

 

[VivaRevolution]

It's like trying to predict the weather in the Aleutian Islands in the winter, the variables are off the chart.
Will the tax breaks boost business growth, purchasing power and hiring causing the economy to continue to grow? He will be a hero.
If the economy tanks, not so much.
Then you have N Korea issues that could push his popularity massively either direction.
Same with the Middle East especially if he moves on the Jerusalem issue trending presently.
If the DNC keeps imploding that's potentially a impacting factor.
If the Russian issue runs out of gas the equal and opposite reaction will be more than equal.
If the..
Well anyway I have no idea where it will end up by then.

Honestly man. How is whether trickle down economics going to work, still a question?

 

[TheComebackKid]

You guys have a lot of nerve considering that you've spent the last year trying to invalidate the 2016 election. Russia, Russia, Russia.

 

[Hard To Tell]

lol at people still thinking Sanders is a credible candidate. He was one of the few people who got exposed for what he is by Trump's election almost as badly as Clinton and the likes of CNN.

 

[VivaRevolution]

You guys have a lot of nerve considering that you've spent the last year trying to invalidate the 2016 election. Russia, Russia, Russia.

Invalidate, or deligitimize?

Because I member our last muslim Kenyan born president.

He was a corrupt Chicago gangster, not a Kenyan muslim.

 

[VivaRevolution]

lol at people still thinking Sanders is a credible candidate. He was one of the few people who got exposed for what he is by Trump's election almost as badly as Clinton and the likes of CNN.

How So?

When he co-opted Clinton's wall street Democratic platform into a progressive one, in exchange for his endorsement?

Some of us call that governing.

 

[unimackpass]

Lol. Spite 2020.

Spite 2020! Just for the Spite of it.
That would be quite a slogan to run by you just came up with.
Who knows, in this wild climate it just might work.

 

[TheComebackKid]

Invalidate, or deligitimize?

Because I member our last muslim Kenyan born president.

He was a corrupt Chicago gangster, not a Kenyan muslim.

Invalidate and delegitimize. The Russia collusion hoax has completely dwarfed "birtherism" at this point. And its about 100x more dangerous narrative.

 

[WTF2008]

lol at people still thinking Sanders is a credible candidate. He was one of the few people who got exposed for what he is by Trump's election almost as badly as Clinton and the likes of CNN.

I was a berniebro but dude sold out.

Ron Paul should run again.

 

[MMAViewer]

I would not expect that to be likely at all. Like <5% unlikely.

I cannot imagine a GOP persons beating him with GOP voters. He already dominated that field something nasty in 2016, and his support hasn't withered all that much. The only quasi-feasible contender would be Romney, and I don't think his chances would be very good at all. The usual suspects (Cruz, Rubio, Paul Ryan) would get put through the wood chipper.

Romney has a chance I agree.
What are your thoughts on Julian Castro?
I would be intrigued by a Castro and Wendy Davis ticket. It would be interesting to see if they could steal TX. If so they would surly take Ca too!

 

[lilelvis]

hello Trostky, i am IGIT,

i put the chance that Mr. Trump will engage in a (relatively) clean transfer of power if he falls in 2020 at around zero, but i don't think he'll engage in anything too bizarre.

however...

should he fabricate some weird story about how the election was stolen and the ballot results are phony and (cue ominous sounding strings and jerky, threatening camera movements) GEORGE SOROS was behind some skullduggery, i'm betting a huge portion of the GOP electorate would enthusiastically sign on to it.

- IGIT

Hi Igit,
The dems are building the blueprint for this scenario as we type..
It's likely the wave of the future

 

[cincymma79]

That's actually an interesting question. Given everything we've seen so far, if Trump loses a reelection bid, does he transfer power gracefully? I'd gamble on "no".

I find it interesting because one of the hallmarks of our continued success with democracy is that our power transfers go smoothly. I've never considered what happens if someone doesn't go gracefully and quietly into the night.

Proabably he writes a book about how he lost the section and goes on every talk show for two years talking about how he lost while blaming everyone but himself. Might even try to blame a foreign government for rigging the election. I’m guessing China

 

[Hard To Tell]

How So?

When he co-opted Clinton's wall street Democratic platform into a progressive one, in exchange for his endorsement?

Some of us call that governing.

Didn't have the balls to stand up to his own party when they screwed him. He just bent over and took it, showing that he's not fit to lead a country. Then after everything that was said about Trump's tax payments, the rich not paying their fair share, wealth distribution and how Sanders is a man of the people, it turns out that despite earning over $1 million in 2016, he uses tax loopholes himself to pay the same rate of tax as people earning less than 20k a year. When he should actually be paying near the same rate as Trump, you know, the guy he spent an entire election campaign saying was the one doing the tax dodging.

As another socialist once said: "accuse the other side of that which you are guilty".

 

[Bald1]

I was a berniebro but dude sold out.

Ron Paul should run again.

I know you're joking, but damn. Aren't you guys sick of all the old blood yet? Clinton being the youngest at what, 70 right now?

 

[PainIsLIfe]

If you were a betting person, what would you place the odds of Donald Trump running for reelection in 2020, losing the electoral college vote, and then (i) publicly conceding and (ii) acknowledging the election as legitimate and untainted? This would produce a sequence of events akin to every other change in administration in US history, notwithstanding impeachment or assassination.

I figure it's (80% that he makes it through four years without impeachment) x (70% that he runs for reelection) x (75% that he loses the election) x (40% that he recognizes the election as legitimate) x (80% that he nevertheless yields to a transfer of power to the next administration).

.8 x .7 x .75 x .4 x .8, for a grand total of 13%

And, yes, this is a un-substantive, vapid Trump discussion.

I'd say 70% for running again is high. He'll just declare that he made America great again and he's done.

 

[WTF2008]

I know you're joking, but damn. Aren't you guys sick of all the old blood yet? Clinton being the youngest at what, 70 right now?

Who else? It cost Hillary like a billion dollars for her election run.

Who can raise that kind of money?