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The fate of MMA’s most interesting division hangs in the balance as lineal lightweight champion, Conor McGregor, takes on acting champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229.
Over the past week, we’ve thoroughly analyzed the skillets of McGregor and Nurmagomedov and discussed the significance of the fight. Nurmagomedov will attempt to create a sense of legitimacy surrounding his title reign by beating someone who can reasonably be described as “The Man” at lightweight, while McGregor looks to reestablish his vacated spot as the number one fighter in the division.
McGregor versus Nurmagomedov is a modern rendition of a classic – the quintessential striker versus grappler match-up. Nurmagomedov has one likely path to victory, with a win condition that amounts to little more than “consistently find the takedown.” Likewise, McGregor’s path to victory necessitates shutting down the larger portion of Nurmagomedov’s takedown attempts, if not all of them.
In many ways, the outcome seems almost bound to disappoint. When we think of legendary fights which stand the test of time, we rarely think of the one-sided beatdowns, the technical clinics, and the patiently dominating performances; no, we think of momentum swings, back-and-forth action, and triumph in the face of adversity. The main event of UFC 229 seems unlikely to provide those shifts in tone that create transcendent fights.
At first glance (as well as a second glance, and as many glances as you care to take), neither McGregor nor Nurmagomedov appear to have much to offer their opponent in his area of expertise. The specialized nature of the combatants means that a Nurmagomedov win will likely take the form of a dominant smashing via ground striking and positional control, while a McGregor victory involves a high chance of Nurmagomedov being made to look silly on the feet. It will take an incredible performance from both men to give the fight a competitive character, but McGregor and Nurmagomedov are known for nothing if not putting on incredible performances.
Without further ado, let’s dig into the meat of the match-up and see what McGregor and Nurmagomedov have to offer one another.
McGregor vs Nurmagomedov: A Tactical Preview
While the fight hinges on the ability of both men to dictate which phase the fight is contested in, cage-craft will likely prove the determining factor in whether or not we are treated to a primarily striking or grappling-oriented display. As we noted in our Nurmagomedov Primer, Nurmagomedov relies on the cage to hit his takedowns. It is rather unlikely that Nurmagomedov will have much success taking McGregor down in the open, so his victory hinges on whether or not he can consistently tie McGregor up against the fence.
Nurmagomedov’s skillset forces him into a conceptual bottleneck that is not present in McGregor’s skillset. Against a striker the caliber of McGregor, the extent of Nurmagomedov’s game funnels into his clinch entries. Nurmagomedov must achieve body-to-body contact with McGregor in order to start the only type of sequences likely to result in victory. Holly Holm’s domination of Ronda Rousey showed us that the skillset of a grappler can be prevented at its onset if these nodal points of congestion necessary to get their game off the ground can be denied.
The limitations in the timing and setup on Nurmagomedov’s takedowns means that he will likely need to pressure to consistently execute his grappling, while McGregor has more options. McGregor will likely look to pressure Nurmagomedov in order to take away the Dagestani’s most likely win conditions and further compound the effectiveness of his own offense, but he can beat Nurmagomedov off the back-foot if he is forced into that position. If Nurmagomedov is able to secure a takedown, the bottleneck is reversed and his game opens up completely, but the fact that fights start on the feet gives McGregor an advantage in this department.
Styles Clash
The striking match-up may be as difficult for Nurmagomedov as the grappling match-up is for McGregor. Although Nurmagomedov is outmatched simply in terms of skill, composure, and tactical depth on the feet, McGregor’s particular style makes his striking a nightmare matchup for Nurmagomedov’s.
In our Nurmagomedov Primer, we mentioned that Nurmagomedov typically resorts to extending his lead hand and folding beneath his rear elbow for defense, which affords him protection against looping strikes. Nurmagomedov displayed a crafty defensive tactic in his most recent fight, as he consistently made Al Iaquinta punch into his shoulder by dipping beneath it or shoulder rolling.
The nature of McGregor’s southpaw stance means that his primary attack, the straight left, will bypass both Nurmagomedov’s lead shoulder and the chicken-winged elbow. Nurmagomedov typically resorts to giving ground or pulling his head straight back in response to an opponent’s straight punches, which is not a sufficient defense mechanism against a weapon so accurate, powerful, and well-disguised.
Just as McGregor’s style takes away Nurmagomedov’s most reliable method of defense, it also takes away his primary attacks. Nurmagomedov does most of his work on the feet with his lead hand, throwing quick jabs and leaping lead hooks or uppercuts. The nature of southpaw-orthodox match-ups alters how the lead hand can be used. While the jab is not nullified, it does become more difficult to land, as the lead hands clash and are often occupied fighting the opponent’s for dominance. Consistently leveraging a jab against a southpaw requires a degree of craft that Nurmagomedov does not possess, as his lead hand was fairly inert against southpaw opponents Gleison Tibau, Rafael dos Anjos, and Michael Johnson.
Nurmagomedov’s difficulty leveraging his lead hand will be compounded by McGregor’s skill at hand-fighting. McGregor uses the hand-fight to enforce his preferred distance, tying up his orthodox opponent’s lead hand in order to nullify their jab and force them to attack with the rear. Unless Nurmagomedov is able to consistently pressure McGregor to the fence, he will likely have neither the proper distancing to land his jab, nor the ability to bypass McGregor’s own lead hand. The hand-control also build frustration in opponents and encourages them to lash out, which may cause Nurmagomedov to lead with the rear-hand and over-extend, giving McGregor a reaction he wants to counter.
McGregor’s ability to draw and exploit reactions using convincing feints will allow him to take advantage of Nurmagomedov’s poorly-schooled defensive reactions. As he lacks the comfort to see punches coming and react soundly to them, Nurmagomedov is often jumpy or flinchy on defense, which presents the opportunity to feint him out with slight, subtle motions used to disguise committed strikes.
Once the fight is on the mat, however, it is Nurmagomedov who possesses all the advantages. Not much recent tape of McGregor’s bottom game exists – the last time he was put on his back for long stretches came against Chad Mendes in 2015. Although McGregor has no doubt improved his grappling since the Mendes fight, his guard will almost certainly not be well-equipped to deal with one of the most fearsome top control artists in MMA today.
McGregor played closed guard against Mendes, extending his hips to create distance while picking away with elbows from the bottom. When he saw an opportunity, he would post his hands on Mendes’ shoulders to create distance and look to kick off.
The Mendes fight presents several issues regarding McGregor’s ability to keep himself safe on the bottom against Nurmagomedov. Mendes lacks a refined passing game and would concede space when McGregor brought his legs in between their bodies. Nurmagomedov is one of the better passers in MMA and will quickly look to step over as soon as the opponent posts a foot on the hip. Another issue is sheer size – McGregor was able to keep Mendes’ weight off him simply by extending his hips, but that is unlikely to work as well against a man of relatively equal height and greater mass.
Even if McGregor does succeed in tying Nurmagomedov up in closed guard, he will have to contend with an incredibly sharp passing game, the likes of which he’s never faced before. Mendes was content to sit on his heels or post one leg on the mat and strike while McGregor attempted to create distance, allowing him to settle into his posts and kick off to stand up. Nurmagomedov will look to stand to break the guard immediately and step over while denying McGregor the opportunity to establish strong posts.
We won’t focus too much on the positional grappling dynamics of this fight. Nurmagomedov’s top control and ground striking game was extensively covered in our previous article and, given the small amount of recent footage we have of McGregor’s bottom game, a grappling-oriented fight with likely look like business as usual for Nurmagomedov. Instead, we’ll focus primarily on what each man must do in order to impose their will and keep the fight in their preferred phase and range.
Potential Gameplans
The primary issue Nurmagomedov faces on the feet is that he must close distance to put himself in a position to win. The fight will be won or lost for Nurmagomedov largely on the strength of his entries. If he is able to consistently use his striking to create openings to secure an underhook or a grip around McGregor’s waist, victory seems almost assured. If he cannot get close enough and create those openings, however, his game is unlikely to take off.
McGregor’s stance presents another problem, as the bladed, southpaw stance makes it more difficult for orthodox opponents to get in cleanly on a double leg. Nurmagomedov relies on the ability to press opponents to the cage with his shot, but this will be more difficult against McGregor.
McGregor is most vulnerable to takedowns as he throws his rear hand. The hips naturally square while his feet stay rooted, allowing an orthodox opponent to get in cleanly on a double leg, and McGregor often overextends which intensifies this effect. We’ve covered why Nurmagomedov likely does not have the timing nor sound defensive ability to score reactive takedowns as McGregor punches, but Nurmagomedov can proactively draw the straight and shoot with the assumption that McGregor will follow through.
McGregor’s primary counter, the inside-angle straight, causes him to key in on his opponent’s rear hand. Lunging in and overextending on a rear straight is exactly the action McGregor wants his opponents to take and he’s very sensitive to this opening. This sensitivity means that opponents can potentially draw him into taking a hop-step back and loading up on the counter left by showing the straight from a long distance.
https://gfycat.com/halfformalachillestang
Nurmagomedov might take advantage of this opening by throwing his rear hand and immediately shifting forward to duck in on the hips. The forward shift solves the problem of stance, as Nurmagomedov is immediately positioned to shoot a clean double leg. If he is able to draw the counter, he can shoot smoothly under McGregor’s left hand and catch him while the hips are square. Even if McGregor simply backs up, shifting forward would allow Nurmagomedov to close that extra distance and give him a better chance of pushing McGregor to the cage.
Continued here...
Over the past week, we’ve thoroughly analyzed the skillets of McGregor and Nurmagomedov and discussed the significance of the fight. Nurmagomedov will attempt to create a sense of legitimacy surrounding his title reign by beating someone who can reasonably be described as “The Man” at lightweight, while McGregor looks to reestablish his vacated spot as the number one fighter in the division.
McGregor versus Nurmagomedov is a modern rendition of a classic – the quintessential striker versus grappler match-up. Nurmagomedov has one likely path to victory, with a win condition that amounts to little more than “consistently find the takedown.” Likewise, McGregor’s path to victory necessitates shutting down the larger portion of Nurmagomedov’s takedown attempts, if not all of them.
In many ways, the outcome seems almost bound to disappoint. When we think of legendary fights which stand the test of time, we rarely think of the one-sided beatdowns, the technical clinics, and the patiently dominating performances; no, we think of momentum swings, back-and-forth action, and triumph in the face of adversity. The main event of UFC 229 seems unlikely to provide those shifts in tone that create transcendent fights.
At first glance (as well as a second glance, and as many glances as you care to take), neither McGregor nor Nurmagomedov appear to have much to offer their opponent in his area of expertise. The specialized nature of the combatants means that a Nurmagomedov win will likely take the form of a dominant smashing via ground striking and positional control, while a McGregor victory involves a high chance of Nurmagomedov being made to look silly on the feet. It will take an incredible performance from both men to give the fight a competitive character, but McGregor and Nurmagomedov are known for nothing if not putting on incredible performances.
Without further ado, let’s dig into the meat of the match-up and see what McGregor and Nurmagomedov have to offer one another.
McGregor vs Nurmagomedov: A Tactical Preview
While the fight hinges on the ability of both men to dictate which phase the fight is contested in, cage-craft will likely prove the determining factor in whether or not we are treated to a primarily striking or grappling-oriented display. As we noted in our Nurmagomedov Primer, Nurmagomedov relies on the cage to hit his takedowns. It is rather unlikely that Nurmagomedov will have much success taking McGregor down in the open, so his victory hinges on whether or not he can consistently tie McGregor up against the fence.
Nurmagomedov’s skillset forces him into a conceptual bottleneck that is not present in McGregor’s skillset. Against a striker the caliber of McGregor, the extent of Nurmagomedov’s game funnels into his clinch entries. Nurmagomedov must achieve body-to-body contact with McGregor in order to start the only type of sequences likely to result in victory. Holly Holm’s domination of Ronda Rousey showed us that the skillset of a grappler can be prevented at its onset if these nodal points of congestion necessary to get their game off the ground can be denied.
The limitations in the timing and setup on Nurmagomedov’s takedowns means that he will likely need to pressure to consistently execute his grappling, while McGregor has more options. McGregor will likely look to pressure Nurmagomedov in order to take away the Dagestani’s most likely win conditions and further compound the effectiveness of his own offense, but he can beat Nurmagomedov off the back-foot if he is forced into that position. If Nurmagomedov is able to secure a takedown, the bottleneck is reversed and his game opens up completely, but the fact that fights start on the feet gives McGregor an advantage in this department.
Styles Clash
The striking match-up may be as difficult for Nurmagomedov as the grappling match-up is for McGregor. Although Nurmagomedov is outmatched simply in terms of skill, composure, and tactical depth on the feet, McGregor’s particular style makes his striking a nightmare matchup for Nurmagomedov’s.
In our Nurmagomedov Primer, we mentioned that Nurmagomedov typically resorts to extending his lead hand and folding beneath his rear elbow for defense, which affords him protection against looping strikes. Nurmagomedov displayed a crafty defensive tactic in his most recent fight, as he consistently made Al Iaquinta punch into his shoulder by dipping beneath it or shoulder rolling.
The nature of McGregor’s southpaw stance means that his primary attack, the straight left, will bypass both Nurmagomedov’s lead shoulder and the chicken-winged elbow. Nurmagomedov typically resorts to giving ground or pulling his head straight back in response to an opponent’s straight punches, which is not a sufficient defense mechanism against a weapon so accurate, powerful, and well-disguised.
Just as McGregor’s style takes away Nurmagomedov’s most reliable method of defense, it also takes away his primary attacks. Nurmagomedov does most of his work on the feet with his lead hand, throwing quick jabs and leaping lead hooks or uppercuts. The nature of southpaw-orthodox match-ups alters how the lead hand can be used. While the jab is not nullified, it does become more difficult to land, as the lead hands clash and are often occupied fighting the opponent’s for dominance. Consistently leveraging a jab against a southpaw requires a degree of craft that Nurmagomedov does not possess, as his lead hand was fairly inert against southpaw opponents Gleison Tibau, Rafael dos Anjos, and Michael Johnson.
Nurmagomedov’s difficulty leveraging his lead hand will be compounded by McGregor’s skill at hand-fighting. McGregor uses the hand-fight to enforce his preferred distance, tying up his orthodox opponent’s lead hand in order to nullify their jab and force them to attack with the rear. Unless Nurmagomedov is able to consistently pressure McGregor to the fence, he will likely have neither the proper distancing to land his jab, nor the ability to bypass McGregor’s own lead hand. The hand-control also build frustration in opponents and encourages them to lash out, which may cause Nurmagomedov to lead with the rear-hand and over-extend, giving McGregor a reaction he wants to counter.
McGregor’s ability to draw and exploit reactions using convincing feints will allow him to take advantage of Nurmagomedov’s poorly-schooled defensive reactions. As he lacks the comfort to see punches coming and react soundly to them, Nurmagomedov is often jumpy or flinchy on defense, which presents the opportunity to feint him out with slight, subtle motions used to disguise committed strikes.
Once the fight is on the mat, however, it is Nurmagomedov who possesses all the advantages. Not much recent tape of McGregor’s bottom game exists – the last time he was put on his back for long stretches came against Chad Mendes in 2015. Although McGregor has no doubt improved his grappling since the Mendes fight, his guard will almost certainly not be well-equipped to deal with one of the most fearsome top control artists in MMA today.
McGregor played closed guard against Mendes, extending his hips to create distance while picking away with elbows from the bottom. When he saw an opportunity, he would post his hands on Mendes’ shoulders to create distance and look to kick off.
The Mendes fight presents several issues regarding McGregor’s ability to keep himself safe on the bottom against Nurmagomedov. Mendes lacks a refined passing game and would concede space when McGregor brought his legs in between their bodies. Nurmagomedov is one of the better passers in MMA and will quickly look to step over as soon as the opponent posts a foot on the hip. Another issue is sheer size – McGregor was able to keep Mendes’ weight off him simply by extending his hips, but that is unlikely to work as well against a man of relatively equal height and greater mass.
Even if McGregor does succeed in tying Nurmagomedov up in closed guard, he will have to contend with an incredibly sharp passing game, the likes of which he’s never faced before. Mendes was content to sit on his heels or post one leg on the mat and strike while McGregor attempted to create distance, allowing him to settle into his posts and kick off to stand up. Nurmagomedov will look to stand to break the guard immediately and step over while denying McGregor the opportunity to establish strong posts.
We won’t focus too much on the positional grappling dynamics of this fight. Nurmagomedov’s top control and ground striking game was extensively covered in our previous article and, given the small amount of recent footage we have of McGregor’s bottom game, a grappling-oriented fight with likely look like business as usual for Nurmagomedov. Instead, we’ll focus primarily on what each man must do in order to impose their will and keep the fight in their preferred phase and range.
Potential Gameplans
The primary issue Nurmagomedov faces on the feet is that he must close distance to put himself in a position to win. The fight will be won or lost for Nurmagomedov largely on the strength of his entries. If he is able to consistently use his striking to create openings to secure an underhook or a grip around McGregor’s waist, victory seems almost assured. If he cannot get close enough and create those openings, however, his game is unlikely to take off.
McGregor’s stance presents another problem, as the bladed, southpaw stance makes it more difficult for orthodox opponents to get in cleanly on a double leg. Nurmagomedov relies on the ability to press opponents to the cage with his shot, but this will be more difficult against McGregor.
McGregor is most vulnerable to takedowns as he throws his rear hand. The hips naturally square while his feet stay rooted, allowing an orthodox opponent to get in cleanly on a double leg, and McGregor often overextends which intensifies this effect. We’ve covered why Nurmagomedov likely does not have the timing nor sound defensive ability to score reactive takedowns as McGregor punches, but Nurmagomedov can proactively draw the straight and shoot with the assumption that McGregor will follow through.
McGregor’s primary counter, the inside-angle straight, causes him to key in on his opponent’s rear hand. Lunging in and overextending on a rear straight is exactly the action McGregor wants his opponents to take and he’s very sensitive to this opening. This sensitivity means that opponents can potentially draw him into taking a hop-step back and loading up on the counter left by showing the straight from a long distance.
https://gfycat.com/halfformalachillestang
Nurmagomedov might take advantage of this opening by throwing his rear hand and immediately shifting forward to duck in on the hips. The forward shift solves the problem of stance, as Nurmagomedov is immediately positioned to shoot a clean double leg. If he is able to draw the counter, he can shoot smoothly under McGregor’s left hand and catch him while the hips are square. Even if McGregor simply backs up, shifting forward would allow Nurmagomedov to close that extra distance and give him a better chance of pushing McGregor to the cage.
Continued here...
