Nicaragua Is Heading Down the Same Dark Path as Venezuela

Nicaragua Is Heading Down the Same Dark Path as Venezuela
By Margarita Herdocia | June 13, 2018

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While the world watches Venezuela’s slow, cancerous death, Nicaragua is in full cardiac arrest. Since protests began on April 18, the government of President Daniel Ortega has been accused of using “lethal force” and at least 146 people have died. Hundreds more are wounded or missing and the body of a U.S. citizen was found shot dead on June 2. Without international intervention, the collapse of my country could create a new cycle of war and destruction in this precarious region.

I am a mother and a businesswoman, managing several American franchise restaurants across Nicaragua with over 650 employees. The first tremors came in April, when demonstrations against the Ortega regime, largely led by students, started in Managua and quickly spread to cities across the country. The government’s reaction was swift, and in the first few days dozens were killed by police and paramilitary forces using live rounds of ammunition.

On May 30, Nicaragua’s Mother’s Day, I marched with 250 of my employees to remember the children killed in that initial crackdown. Planned by the victims’ mothers, the peaceful march descended into chaos when professional sharpshooters with modern, long-range weapons opened fire with deadly accuracy on innocent marchers. We watched in horror as these pro-government Sandinista mobs managed to kill with precise, single shots to the head from high-rise buildings and atop the national baseball stadium. As we ran for cover to one of our nearby restaurants, we saw protesters fall and bodies pass by in makeshift ambulances. I consoled one grieving young man still covered in the blood and brain matter of a close friend.

Nicaragua’s Catholic bishops called the bloodshed an “organized and systemic aggression”—but it has since worsened. The Mothers’ Day massacre has been nationalized, and systematic kidnapping and torture has been added to the mix. Several employees and acquaintances have been brutally beaten by government thugs, while others have been abducted and tortured for refusing to pay fealty to the Sandinista party leadership.

Nicaragua’s tenuous economy is now threatening to collapse. My goal is to keep our team members safe and employed. If I lay off anyone, their families will starve. There are no jobs, or even functioning charitable organizations to feed the unemployed or impoverished. Some of our restaurants are only open two to three hours a day due to roadblocks and riots, while others are inaccessible with fighting outside. We have even shifted to what we call “war menus” with lower prices and longer shelf-life ingredients. These may seem like trivial concerns in a country where murder, disappearances and extortion have become the norm, but in the face of growing anarchy, you do what you do best. In my case, that means organizing and putting people to work.

Nicaragua has been quietly heading down this path for over a decade. Relative economic stability masked the slow accumulation of power by President Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo. As democratic institutions were dismantled by El Comandante’s regime, their cronies grew in wealth and the stage was set for an enduring Ortega dictatorship.

Since the early 2000s, much of Latin American witnessed a relatively long period of political stability. With the exception of Cuba, democratically elected governments began to take hold and economies started to grow. Venezuela’s implosion and Nicaragua’s misrule and growing violence threaten to reverse this progress and destabilize the region. Ortega and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro provide each other mutual support—an “axis of misery”—while Russia and Iran lurk in the shadows.

The United States has long viewed security and prosperity in Nicaragua and its neighbors as key to regional stability and its own national security. Drug trafficking, immigration and terrorism are all made worse by instability in Central America. Nicaragua’s inferno shows no sign of abating and it is a situation ripe for exploitation by drug cartels and political opportunists. One tool the U.S. administration should employ in response is the Global Magnitsky Act, the U.S. law that allows the President to impose visa bans and targeted sanctions on individuals anywhere in the world responsible for committing proven human rights violations or acts of significant corruption.

Nicaragua’s famous poet Rubén Darío wrote over a century ago, “Si la patria es pequeña, uno grande la sueña” (“If the homeland is small, one dreams it large”). I am perhaps naïve to think my small country could be a model for democratic reform and human rights, particularly given its post-colonial and revolutionary history. Growing tyranny extinguishes hope, and our daily focus turns to survival and emigration. But if I were to “dream it large,” our neighbors to the north would cast a glance at our beleaguered country and see something worth saving, even if it’s purely in their own self-interest.

http://time.com/5309575/nicaragua-protests-unrest-venezuela/
 
The crisis in Nicaragua explained

Daniel Ortega: A Cold War relic
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Embattled President Daniel Ortega has been a fixed presence in Nicaraguan politics for decades. Following the fall of longtime dictator Anastasio Somoza, Ortega became president in 1985, heading the leftist Sandinista National Liberation Front. With deep ties to Fidel Castro, he faced US opposition. The Reagan Administration supported a right-wing guerrilla movement aimed at bringing him down.


Opposition figure and return to power
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After losing re-election in 1990, Ortega became a major opposition figure. Ortega finally won the presidency in 2006, riding the wave of leftist presidents in Latin America. He became a close friend and ally of Hugo Chavez. He has since changed tack, allying himself with the country's traditionally right-wing business community and clergy.


Nicaraguan government consolidates power
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Coupled with changes in electoral law, Ortega has prolonged and cemented his rule. In 2016, he barred international observers and nominated his wife as vice-president. The pair won the election, which was condemned by the opposition and criticized internationally by the US, OAS and the EU.


Pension reform attempt
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In April 2018, Ortega announced a move to reform Nicaragua's pension system, saying that fiscal changes were needed. The reform sought to impose a 5 percent tax on retiree and disability pensions while increasing social security contributions by up to 22.5 percent. The move unleashed large-scale protests nationwide, which have been the biggest challenge Ortega has faced during modern tenure.


State repression and clergy mediation
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The pension plan was abandoned but protests continued, demanding Ortega's ouster. UN Human Rights experts denounced the state's harsh repression. As the death toll rose, Nicaragua's Catholic Church has demanded that Ortega allow international organizations entry to Nicaragua to help investigate the deaths and tried to set up talks between the opposition and the government.


Government and opposition sit down
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The opposition, comprised of students and a wide range of civil society groups, sat down with the government fora round of talks on May 16. The Clergy said the talks would be focused on "justice, democratization, and peace." The opposition's main demand: new presidential elections in 2019. The government rejected the demands and talks broke down.


Stalemate and instability
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The death toll in two months of nationwide violence has risen to 218. Two rounds of dialogue have failed, with unabated protests and repression. Ortega demands that protesters bring down their street barricades. But the opposition continues to demand that the government call for new elections and let in the UN and EU into Nicaragua. Ortega has not yet agreed to either demand.

https://www.dw.com/en/will-nicaragua-be-the-next-venezuela/a-44319434
 
Will Nicaragua be the next Venezuela?
Protests in Nicaragua have left as many dead in just two months as the Venezuelan crisis did over the course of several years.
By Evan Romero-Castillo | 25.06.2018

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Two months after an uprising took hold of Nicaragua, there appears to be no end in sight. It began on April 18, with citizens protesting President Daniel Ortega's controversial pension system reform. Ortega withdrew the proposal four days later, hoping the protests would end. Instead, demonstrators continued to rally, but this time against the repressive methods of the state and the deaths it produced, throwing the country into unexpected political chaos.

The magnitude of Nicaragua's anti-government protests and the brutality with which they have been repressed are reminiscent of the Venezuelan political crisis of the past several years.

Some 40 people died in Venezuela's protests of 2014; the unrest that faced President Nicolas Maduro last year left another 150 dead. But in just two months of civil disobedience in Nicaragua, the death toll is estimated to have reached 200 people, although the government only recognizes 46 deaths.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra'ad al Hussein, has joined the chorus of outrage against the Ortega regime's tactics, saying that he condemned the killing that has gone on for two weeks "at the hands of police or pro-government forces."

But the violence has not abated. On June 16, in one of the worst cases so far reported, an entire family of six burned to death when a group of men set their home on fire. Prior to that, the most shocking case had been that of 15 people who were shot to death during a large, peaceful demonstration on May 30.

Kidnappings and torture are among the accusations of crimes against humanity leveled at the Ortega regime. Pro-government mobs and security forces have reportedly wounded thousands of people.

Ortega under pressure

Nicaragua's Catholic Church and a number of other institutions have called for the Sandinista leader and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, to step down.

Rumors abound. In an interview with Nicaraguan media, writer and former Vice President Sergio Ramirez alleged that Ortega had held several meetings with representatives of US Senate, with the approval of the US Department of State, and agreed to early elections on March 2019. Is it at all likely?

"Anything is possible," said Sebastian Huhn, a political scientist at Germany's Osnabrück University. "Ortega is under a lot of pressure and agreeing to early elections may be his only chance to avoid ending up in a national or international tribunal," he said.

Yet, the embattled Nicaraguan president has still not outwardly made any effort to resolve the crisis.

"Ortega is not interested in national reconciliation. There is no doubt that the violence is coming from the state. The police and the Sandinista mobs follow his direct orders. He could stop the killing and he has not done it," Huhn said.

What could happen next?

Sabine Kurtenbach, acting director of the GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies in Hamburg, echoed Huhn's views, and said she believes there are only three plausible scenarios left for Nicaragua.

In the best case, various political forces in the country could come to an agreement to restore the constitutional order. But she admits she "can't imagine Ortega signing on to something like that," as the regime has already been willing to lose two important allies – the business community and the church.

The worst case sees further deterioration. Although the strength of the opposition lies in its commitment to peaceful protests, "the rise of groups willing to take up arms against the state cannot be ruled out." In such a scenario, the role of the armed forces, which have so far stayed out, may become relevant again.

And the third scenario? "Of course there is also the possibility that early elections are indeed called," Kurtenbach said.

For now, Ortega is refusing to loosen his grip on power. But unlike Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who has severed ties with the Inter-American Commission for Human Rights (IACHR), the Nicaraguan president is still open to allowing the regional body to investigate the claims made against him.

The peace dialogue brokered by Nicaragua's clergy between the government and the opposition is still centered on whether or not the IACHR and observers from the UN and the EU will be allowed to enter the country.

"The international organizations are what the country needs most at this moment because local institutions cannot do the job," said Kurtenbach.

Representatives of the IACHR have announced plans to travel to Managua on June 25, though it is uncertain whether they'll be permitted entry.
 
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crazy times. i have been vacationing there off and on over the years surfing and what not. I even considered buying some land and making a hostel or at least an Air BnB style house.
 
crazy times. i have been vacationing there off and on over the years surfing and what not. I even considered buying some land and making a hostel or at least an Air BnB style house.

Chances are you'll be able to get a much better deal now.

And an even better deal next month.

And the months after that.
 
There is hardly going to be another Venezuela, it requires special malice to reach Venezuelan levels of misery.

Ortega will either remain or leave, but the country will keep functioning because Ortega at least has kept a semblance of macroeconomic stability.

Venezuela decided to follow the Zimbabwe route.
 
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