Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - August 2016
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Got some bets for the international:
Been doing well on bets, but horrible on posted bets. Think I've posted like five straight losing bets on dota 2 so take that for what it's worth:
Most picked hero (bans + picks)
2.1 Beastmaster over Bat @2.4 - Some teams doesn't use bat that often while BM is played by more or less everyone. Also a useful part of any push strat and gives lots of vision.
0.8u SD over Drow @5.0 People are bound to have figured out the drow strats by now, while SD is useful in both drowstrats to the point of being banned or picked almost always with it and also useful in a bunch of other situations.
0.8u AA over WW @2.1 This was probably a bad pick, I dunno.
Random bets:
2.5u Wings to pick most different heroes @6.5 (this one is seriously weird, Wings is a top5 team or so which means they'll play a lot of games and they are by far the most varied team in the tournament. I seriously feel this is on of my better bets in a long time)
Winner:
4.2u Winning region Europe @2.0 OG should be the favourites, Liquid and Secret has the ability to win and for hedgeing purposes I guess A and Na'vi could ad some value by going top8 or so. Newbee has lost a bunch of finals/semis to Liquid and I think they're slightly worse then OG in all kinds of ways. Wings has won some tournaments but they're retard-high on the variance and could lose to anyone and the rest of the china teams has all kinds of issues with visas and such. I think Europe should be something like -150 or so at least, so fairly big on it at evens.
2u Team Secret to win @13.5
I tend to like fading secret since they have a whole bunch of hit or miss players but given their talent level and the fact that they have the most decorated captain in Dota 2 history, the 2nd highest rated player in the world and probably the overall highest skill average in the world I just have to put a few units on them at 13.5.
Been doing well on bets, but horrible on posted bets. Think I've posted like five straight losing bets on dota 2 so take that for what it's worth:
Most picked hero (bans + picks)
2.1 Beastmaster over Bat @2.4 - Some teams doesn't use bat that often while BM is played by more or less everyone. Also a useful part of any push strat and gives lots of vision.
0.8u SD over Drow @5.0 People are bound to have figured out the drow strats by now, while SD is useful in both drowstrats to the point of being banned or picked almost always with it and also useful in a bunch of other situations.
0.8u AA over WW @2.1 This was probably a bad pick, I dunno.
Random bets:
2.5u Wings to pick most different heroes @6.5 (this one is seriously weird, Wings is a top5 team or so which means they'll play a lot of games and they are by far the most varied team in the tournament. I seriously feel this is on of my better bets in a long time)
Winner:
4.2u Winning region Europe @2.0 OG should be the favourites, Liquid and Secret has the ability to win and for hedgeing purposes I guess A and Na'vi could ad some value by going top8 or so. Newbee has lost a bunch of finals/semis to Liquid and I think they're slightly worse then OG in all kinds of ways. Wings has won some tournaments but they're retard-high on the variance and could lose to anyone and the rest of the china teams has all kinds of issues with visas and such. I think Europe should be something like -150 or so at least, so fairly big on it at evens.
2u Team Secret to win @13.5
I tend to like fading secret since they have a whole bunch of hit or miss players but given their talent level and the fact that they have the most decorated captain in Dota 2 history, the 2nd highest rated player in the world and probably the overall highest skill average in the world I just have to put a few units on them at 13.5.
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OK i found a baseball play. I like the Mariners over the Red Sox. I liked the Angels yesterday and they looked great until the 9th inning collapse by giving up 5 runs. Hopefully Seattle can make some of that money back today
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Yeah not loving anything. Lost my last 2 MLB bets after a week of just smashing everything. Only played those last 2 for 1u each so not like super strong leans lost.
I guess I kinda like NYY/NYM o8 tonight. Two sub par pitchers. Neither team have great offenses but I'm banking on at least one of the two SP's melting down. Just 1u.
Maybe KC over TB at +108? Yeah, gonna put 1u on that too. Duffy has been pretty good overall for KC, and Archer has been inconsistent for TB. I'd slightly favor KC in this one so at + odds I'll play them too.
Edit: Okay I'll tail that M's play too. Rodriguez isn't good for the Red Sox and Paxton (other than 1 outing) has been pretty solid for Seattle.
That's it I think.
Just wanted to brag: Wings to pick most heroes, which I got between 7.0 and 5.0 yesterday, is now down to 1.7 which is kind of fun. I hedge a bit on Ehome, not since I think they pick tons of heroes but more because they will probably go through the wild cards and thus plays more games.
SD over drow which was at five is down to 2.5.
Added on Europe to win, got 10u on it now. Probably my biggest pre tournament bet ever.
So pre tournament bets I now have:
Dota 2:
On Complexity at ~evens vs Escape for the first match medium. They've spent a fair bit of money on their camp and they have a fairly decent statistician and economics-dude as their coach. I think they've figured something good out for their first game and I trust their preparation more.
edit: Also, Col has been in Americas and scrimming against all the good teams while Escape has been in Europe and scrimmed against whatever Russian pubstacks they could find and probably something like Alliance. Not sure that gives as much.
On Complexity at ~evens vs Escape for the first match medium. They've spent a fair bit of money on their camp and they have a fairly decent statistician and economics-dude as their coach. I think they've figured something good out for their first game and I trust their preparation more.
edit: Also, Col has been in Americas and scrimming against all the good teams while Escape has been in Europe and scrimmed against whatever Russian pubstacks they could find and probably something like Alliance. Not sure that gives as much.
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^^^He's great but has been much better at home than on the road. I'm still mulling over a play on the Cubs. I hate betting against guys as good as he is, but man...IDK
My 2 for sure MLB plays tonight are:
CWS TT for first 5 innings o2 at -150
Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez has been brutally bad this year. He just doesn't seem to have it anymore. Basically a straight fade on him here. 2u.
HOU TT for first 5 innings o2.5 at -115
Same with R.A. Dickey (though he hasn't been as bad as Sanchez). Just basically fading him with a pretty good Houston lineup.2u.
I might play some other stuff. Maybe the Brewers, I like the pitching matchup. But for sure the above 2.
My 2 for sure MLB plays tonight are:
CWS TT for first 5 innings o2 at -150
Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez has been brutally bad this year. He just doesn't seem to have it anymore. Basically a straight fade on him here. 2u.
HOU TT for first 5 innings o2.5 at -115
Same with R.A. Dickey (though he hasn't been as bad as Sanchez). Just basically fading him with a pretty good Houston lineup.2u.
I might play some other stuff. Maybe the Brewers, I like the pitching matchup. But for sure the above 2.
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I ended up betting Marlins early when the line was basically even. Cubs still have that aura about them but it's not like they're invincible
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Yeah I'm just passing. Not laying juice with him on the road, but can't bet against him either.
I'm hitting the two I listed for 2u each and then the Brewers 1.5u at -113. Davies has surprisingly been really good for them and the Padres lineup is pretty bad. Obviously no Lucroy hurts the Brewers but Perdino has struggled for SD. Brewers should be -140ish here imo.
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He gets help w that marine layer in SD. I was considering the under but passed. I seem to have good luck w totals in baseball but I hate playing them for whatever reason
Speaking of totals, I'm on the under 6.5 in the Yankees game
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I've been getting heaps of interest about my capping service from potential sign ups after my impressive results documented right here on sherdog. It looks like people are starting to realize my bets have insane value. Actions my friends speak louder than words. Money talks right? My picks have universally been making people a lot of money had they been tailing my value bets. I still stand by my decision to restrict the number of free plays I share on sherdog as my focus is for those interested in following my plays to subscribe. Now, I'm still going to share some of my exceptional plays from time to time, but there will be some stipulations.
For every 50 Likes I receive on sherdog I will offer 1 free MMA value Pick and 1 value pick for any other sport
For every 100 Likes I receive on sherdog I will offer a fully capped MMA card by yours truly (anywhere from 3-5 picks)
As much as I'd like to give all my value picks for free it's just not feasible. I work damn hard to cap sports and nobody likes working for free so I do think my time and effort is worth chipping in a subscription fee. Trust me, the price for my service pales in comparison to other so called "handicappers". These pseudo cappers are frauds who steal your money while I'm here to make you money, see the difference?
Also want to thank those for finally giving me some credit for how cerebral a sports handicapper I am. A bunch of sherodoggers doubted me but you can't argue against proof which I've plainly documented for everyone to see.
- Barry
For every 50 Likes I receive on sherdog I will offer 1 free MMA value Pick and 1 value pick for any other sport
For every 100 Likes I receive on sherdog I will offer a fully capped MMA card by yours truly (anywhere from 3-5 picks)
As much as I'd like to give all my value picks for free it's just not feasible. I work damn hard to cap sports and nobody likes working for free so I do think my time and effort is worth chipping in a subscription fee. Trust me, the price for my service pales in comparison to other so called "handicappers". These pseudo cappers are frauds who steal your money while I'm here to make you money, see the difference?
Also want to thank those for finally giving me some credit for how cerebral a sports handicapper I am. A bunch of sherodoggers doubted me but you can't argue against proof which I've plainly documented for everyone to see.
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Epic post
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Sherdog I am documented 92.3498768393% vs the spread over the last 4 years, 3 months, 11 days, 9 hours, and 3 minutes. I'm up a documented 234,921 units. Please pm me and I'll give the P.O. box # to send the documented bank check to. Then I will give you my documented 88 star play of the millenium.
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Barry is actually Vegas Dave. Obviously he cant use his real name as everyone will want his picks (like $1mil on Miesha) for free. Dude charges $1500 a season so you cant have his picks for nothing. Pay the man...
If nothing else you have to respect Barry's commitment to the gimmick.
If nothing else you have to respect Barry's commitment to the gimmick.
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