Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2018

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there are times where I absolutely hate North Carolina.

Im a huge fan and they were a big money maker for me the last 2 years. Bet them all of last year and had a 9-1 futures on them. Losing meeks jackson and hicks was huge for them. They have a good starting 5 but the bench is very young and theres a big dropoff in play when they come in. While they rebound it well they don't have a true post player and struggle at times to find offense. They settle for way too many 3s and on the other end are lazy on defense and don't defend the perimeter very well. They have the potential to be a very good shooting team but for some reason the outside game doesn't translate on the road . From here on out I would pick and choose spots to play them at home. Also I believe they will be better by tourney time as the freshman continue to develop.
 
I haven't been watching the Spurs lately or following basketball too much, but have been watching the Cavs last few games. I saw the Kawhi news stories yesterday and the Love news today so I'm up to date there. Why are the Cavs favored in San Antonio, (5d has Cleveland ML -118 & SA ML -102 as of now)? They have been getting crushed and SA is at home, has SA been playing that bad?
 
Pretty interesting that the Cavs are -1.5 road favorites tonight amid rumors of team turmoil. I also think Lebron's presence in the locker room is a positive factor in the whole situation. We saw the Wizards have a team meeting that "ended poorly" but that locker room is led by a low character, egotistical player in John Wall. I don't think that's gonna be the case with Lebron and the Cavs. After experiencing a spanking by the hands of the OKC Thunder on Saturday, I think the Cavs are in an amazing spot. The line movement also kinda reflects that smart money thinks the same. For what its worth, the Cavs have reportedly ramped up their practices for the first time all year (for those who dont know, the Cavs barely practice as they are trying to keep their players fresh and healthy). Even if tonight isn't the night, I think the buy low window on the Cavs is wide open and we should take advantage of it going forward. I'm personally making a large wager on the Cavs tonight but im still licking my wounds from last night so im not sure how much I can afford to wager. Maybe 2u pre game and up to another 2u live if I get better odds.

also... i was looking over some of the numbers and my thought process leading up to the Clippers bet last night. While I think the Clippers were definitely the right side with Jimmy Butler out, the Clippers TT OVER was probably a better bet. Hindsight is 20/20, though. Next time I might split the large wager to avoid a situation like this where my read was correct, but variance costs me big. Sorry to those who tailed, I take full responsibility and will be better going forward
 
Pretty interesting that the Cavs are -1.5 road favorites tonight amid rumors of team turmoil. I also think Lebron's presence in the locker room is a positive factor in the whole situation. We saw the Wizards have a team meeting that "ended poorly" but that locker room is led by a low character, egotistical player in John Wall. I don't think that's gonna be the case with Lebron and the Cavs. After experiencing a spanking by the hands of the OKC Thunder on Saturday, I think the Cavs are in an amazing spot. The line movement also kinda reflects that smart money thinks the same. For what its worth, the Cavs have reportedly ramped up their practices for the first time all year (for those who dont know, the Cavs barely practice as they are trying to keep their players fresh and healthy). Even if tonight isn't the night, I think the buy low window on the Cavs is wide open and we should take advantage of it going forward. I'm personally making a large wager on the Cavs tonight but im still licking my wounds from last night so im not sure how much I can afford to wager. Maybe 2u pre game and up to another 2u live if I get better odds.

also... i was looking over some of the numbers and my thought process leading up to the Clippers bet last night. While I think the Clippers were definitely the right side with Jimmy Butler out, the Clippers TT OVER was probably a better bet. Hindsight is 20/20, though. Next time I might split the large wager to avoid a situation like this where my read was correct, but variance costs me big. Sorry to those who tailed, I take full responsibility and will be better going forward

It was a pretty good bet last night numbers wise. The only concern betting Clippers right now is DeAndre Jordan being out, they are getting killed on the boards without him and not much of an inside defense presence.

Harrell is playing well from an offensive presence, but doesn't provide same defense or rebounding. Betting the over on future Clippers games with Jordan out as long as opposing team has good offense too.

Do you think Cavs Q1 and 1st half lines have any value at juiced pickem lines just in Cavs blow the game late?
 
Rolling with Oklahoma -1 tonight coming off 2 losses they will up for this game. Kansas hasn’t dominated this year but continue to just get the job done and Win games down the stretch. They are 4-0 on the road and Oklahoma is 9-0 at home so something has to give here. I don’t think Kansas can continue to win on the road in the big 12 and this is a good home spot for Oklahoma.
 
Wow, I was don't quit Nadal (I always say that when it looks like I'll win in tennis .... and they retire so often) fml. I also had over 36.5 games which already hit. I'm thinking, I hope I win that at least. Nope, no action on the over.
 
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It was a pretty good bet last night numbers wise. The only concern betting Clippers right now is DeAndre Jordan being out, they are getting killed on the boards without him and not much of an inside defense presence.

Harrell is playing well from an offensive presence, but doesn't provide same defense or rebounding. Betting the over on future Clippers games with Jordan out as long as opposing team has good offense too.

Do you think Cavs Q1 and 1st half lines have any value at juiced pickem lines just in Cavs blow the game late?
You're 100% right about the offensive rebounding being due to DJ's absence. His plus minus on the season isn't very good so I guess I just assumed he was easily replaceable. If I had looked into it more, I should have noticed that they've been out rebounded in practically every game since he's been injured. Its noted going forward

I think your line of thinking is probably on the safer side. The Spurs have been a better second half team than first half team this year so it probably bodes will with that wager. I might split my pre-game bet into full game or just 1H but yeah, I was debating that line as well. Good call!
 
even though i swore that i would never bet the cavs until they bench that fuk jr smith i took them 1st quarter at -111. closed door meeting, maybe they come out with urgency and lebron starts fast
 
Pretty interesting that the Cavs are -1.5 road favorites tonight amid rumors of team turmoil. I also think Lebron's presence in the locker room is a positive factor in the whole situation. We saw the Wizards have a team meeting that "ended poorly" but that locker room is led by a low character, egotistical player in John Wall. I don't think that's gonna be the case with Lebron and the Cavs. After experiencing a spanking by the hands of the OKC Thunder on Saturday, I think the Cavs are in an amazing spot. The line movement also kinda reflects that smart money thinks the same. For what its worth, the Cavs have reportedly ramped up their practices for the first time all year (for those who dont know, the Cavs barely practice as they are trying to keep their players fresh and healthy). Even if tonight isn't the night, I think the buy low window on the Cavs is wide open and we should take advantage of it going forward. I'm personally making a large wager on the Cavs tonight but im still licking my wounds from last night so im not sure how much I can afford to wager. Maybe 2u pre game and up to another 2u live if I get better odds.

also... i was looking over some of the numbers and my thought process leading up to the Clippers bet last night. While I think the Clippers were definitely the right side with Jimmy Butler out, the Clippers TT OVER was probably a better bet. Hindsight is 20/20, though. Next time I might split the large wager to avoid a situation like this where my read was correct, but variance costs me big. Sorry to those who tailed, I take full responsibility and will be better going forward
Sometimes you're bug and sometimes you're the windshield man. Can't see every x factor every time. No need to apologize to us. Reading through the analysis is wasn't easy to make an argument.
 
I'm playing the Cavs ML risking 2u. Until I see them play well, I can't risk more, no matter how strong the lean. The problem lies deeper than motivation. But with seemingly all of the Spurs players out, at least the vets, I have to take a shot. Normally its a phenomenal proposition to back a team coming off of a giant beating so at least there's that
 
I'm playing the Cavs ML risking 2u. Until I see them play well, I can't risk more, no matter how strong the lean. The problem lies deeper than motivation. But with seemingly all of the Spurs players out, at least the vets, I have to take a shot. Normally its a phenomenal proposition to back a team coming off of a giant beating so at least there's that
Tailed. Let's get it!
 
even though i swore that i would never bet the cavs until they bench that fuk jr smith i took them 1st quarter at -111. closed door meeting, maybe they come out with urgency and lebron starts fast
LBJ gets to 30,000pts and this bet hits for a .5u win. Thanks, Quincy. Let's go Cavs, keep it up!
 
Sorry on the late notice but Oilers -1.5 over Sabres should cash. Buffalo are awful and Oil are hot right now.
 
Cleveland really gave it up there in the second. I was on their 1h line for 1u. Oh well.
 
Sorry on the late notice but Oilers -1.5 over Sabres should cash. Buffalo are awful and Oil are hot right now.

lol jesus. I'm glad I play penny stocks with this and that no one listens to me haha
4-0 against the worst team in the league
 
Cavs 1Q was def the only Cavs play worth $. ugh
 
I'm looking at Portland today at -3. Waiting to see if butler is still out. 3 will tough but I like Portland at home
 
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