Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - June, 2017

[Antagonist88]

I'd be shocked if Lebron got it without winning. This will be the first or second time in like 40 years I think that the regular season MVP goes to a player whose team wasn't a 1 seed, so the committee really values winning. Plus, if Iggy got it over Lebron two years ago in the Warriors win, something really crazy would have to happen for Lebron to get it this year in a loss.

I stabbed Kyrie for .33u at +1700 for the value but feel stupid for it. Don't know what to do with the series. May make a play on Warriors in 6. Cavs ml is also very tempting, but I think I'll end up passing on series bets at least until after the first game or 2

 

[thesharktank]

I'd really be shocked if Lebron would win MVP if his team loses. Not only that, but the lines suggest the series will be over sooner or later. Almost no chance Lebron wins it if the Warriors win in 5 or 6 games. But yeah, if Warriors win in 7, i think there's a chance Lebron wins it under the condition that no one on the Warriors plays spectacular ball

I was describing a way that Draymond could steal / earn an MVP. Voters giving it to a player for defensive play against lebron as backhanded praise like with iggy. Where his relatively better play guarding lebron was weighed so heavily.

 

[iGnP]

I was describing a way that Draymond could steal / earn an MVP. Voters giving it to a player for defensive play against lebron as backhanded praise like with iggy. Where his relatively better play guarding lebron was weighed so heavily.

oops. misread. its late here and im going over baseball stats. my bad

 

[ill800]

Dbacks today and orioles/sox over 9

 

[cberasi]

The last 5 finals mvp was Lebron or the guy that guarded him

 

[Monster Meat]

Let's try this again dbacks first 5 -135

 

[Antagonist88]

2u Red Sox -1.5 +135. Some large fan bias here and Fade Miley day.

 

[iGnP]

No baseball plays today. Limited card. Not enough value

 

[OutRun]

... Cavs ML @ 3.710?

 

[EzFlyer]

3rd multi-unit play of french (not counting nadal outright winner monster bet):
johnson +2.5 sets +100 / johnson +7 games -110
3u split between the two.

good luckl if you tail / bad luck if you fade!

 

[ill800]

Strasburg -136 @ Oakland tomorrow?

Yea put me down for 136

Just got back from os game. Didn't bet their money line tonight unfortunately. Miley makes me too nervous against the top scoring team in the league.

Red Sox bats fell asleep for 8 innings tonight. Luckily they bailed me out for the over. Small play on dog os tomorrow. Might take over again

 

[iGnP]

Strasburg -136 @ Oakland tomorrow?

Yea put me down for 136

Just got back from os game. Didn't bet their money line tonight unfortunately. Miley makes me too nervous against the top scoring team in the league.

Red Sox bats fell asleep for 8 innings tonight. Luckily they bailed me out for the over. Small play on dog os tomorrow. Might take over again

no bryce tomorrow but yea i kinda agree the nats line is a bit cheap. wouldn't go crazy with it, though

 

[EzFlyer]

Damn, Johnson couldn't hold serve nearly as well as I expected today. Oh well.

 

[iGnP]

All my leans in baseball ended up losing yesterday so it's a good thing I passed on the card

I personally think Warriors -800 is way too juiced. I might have to hedge Warriors championship bet but it's really hard to do when they shot 42% and still won by 20+ lol

MLB FRIDAY

White Sox/Tigers o8.5 (-125) risk: 1u
Indians (-107) risk: 1.07u
Brewers (+190) risk: 0.5u

I might make a big play on the Houston Astros today. I don't see why the Rangers are getting so much love. Darvish is a tad overrated in my opinion and the Astros are the best team in the league so far against right handed pitching. On the other side of the coin, the Rangers are ranked towards the bottom of the league against left handed pitching. Line feels very trappy

 

[Monster Meat]

I know its late but I took
cards first 5 +150 and a late night play rockies first 5 -120

 

[Monster Meat]

All my leans in baseball ended up losing yesterday so it's a good thing I passed on the card

I personally think Warriors -800 is way too juiced. I might have to hedge Warriors championship bet but it's really hard to do when they shot 42% and still won by 20+ lol

MLB FRIDAY

White Sox/Tigers o8.5 (-125) risk: 1u
Indians (-107) risk: 1.07u
Brewers (+190) risk: 0.5u

I might make a big play on the Houston Astros today. I don't see why the Rangers are getting so much love. Darvish is a tad overrated in my opinion and the Astros are the best team in the league so far against right handed pitching. On the other side of the coin, the Rangers are ranked towards the bottom of the league against left handed pitching. Line feels very trappy

no need to hedge the warriors I think will be lucky to get 1 game.

 

[iGnP]

no need to hedge the warriors I think will be lucky to get 1 game.

Recency bias. There were a lot of outliers in game 1 that you can't count on being similar going forward. It's a sheer value play, too. If the Cavs steal game 2, the odds will be something like Warriors -150 to win the championship.

That's the math opinion of the series. But I agree that the Warriors should win. I made a Warriors in 5 play right before the game started yesterday and I'm pretty happy w its chances if the Warriors look dominant again in game 2

 

[Monster Meat]

Recency bias. There were a lot of outliers in game 1 that you can't count on being similar going forward. It's a sheer value play, too. If the Cavs steal game 2, the odds will be something like Warriors -150 to win the championship.

That's the math opinion of the series. But I agree that the Warriors should win. I made a Warriors in 5 play right before the game started yesterday and I'm pretty happy w its chances if the Warriors look dominant again in game 2

Yea I took them in 5 and yesterday went exactly how I thought. I just don't think the cavs can beat them w lebron trying to do everything. I know it's only one game but the warriors are just so much better on defense and the cavs are just horrible defensively. Kyrie and love are big time liabilities on defense and warriors have igodala and green to throw at James.

 

[EzFlyer]

kicked some butt today....

...besides the f'ing johnson play i shared, of course...

i like a bunch saturday. i'd only recommend these two, tho:
O37.5 delpo-murray -107
O36.0 cilic-lopez -113


....
i also have plays on these 4, but i'm not as confident (and bet half as much):
isner ML -125
verdasco +1.5 sets -122
delpo +1.5 sets +130
wawrinka-fognini O36.0 -105

basically, on the 4 overs.. i see them going 4+ sets. and i don't see how any of the 3 DON'T cover the over if so.

 

[JDB]

Damn, Johnson couldn't hold serve nearly as well as I expected today. Oh well.

I took a stab too, that 2nd set was his chance but after losing that his spirit seemed to get crushed.

Del Poro has been winning in straight sets over some very practiced clay players (Almagro, Pella.) I might back him tonight vs Murray, who appears to be in so-so form.

Korean Super Boy Hyeon vs Nish - quite possibly Hyeon wins, seems pretty likely to go to over 3 sets, but with Nishi it's hard to tell. The value is there so again I will likely bet Hyeon.

Your boy Verdasco played like a champ the other day. I thought he was gonna lose vs that Frenchman but he won it in 5. Not sure if he'll win today...?