Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - June, 2018

What rationale for under? Both pitchers have been brutal lately. Esp Romano with a 16:12 K:BB ratio over his last 4 starts. I think in their combined last 8 starts these 2 haven't given up less than 4 ER even once.
mostly because i like Jon Gray here

He has a 5.68 ERA but I dont care about that. He's striking out over 10.5 batters per 9 innings while walking less than 3 per 9. He's also allowing less than 1 HR per 9 innings, which is fantastic, especially considering that number is skewed because 7 of his 12 starts have been at Coors (he's only allowed 2 home runs in 27.1 innings pitched on the road). The thin air isn't the only park factor in Coors; it has huge dimensions and its easy for hits to land. Gray's BABIP this year is 0.376 (to anyone unfamiliar with BABIP, its the batting average for balls in play. so any time a batter makes contact this season, 37.6% of the time it has turned into a hit, which is stupidly unsustainable)

The Reds are 24th in the MLB in wRC+ against RHP and 21st in wOBA against RHP. I dont like their chances of getting to Gray

So, imo, you're totally banking on Romano imploding for the over to hit. It's possible, but the Rockies are 29th in the league in wRC+ against RHP (it's a weighted statistic so they factor out the Coors' park factors)
 
Yeah I guess I weight recency a lot (maybe more than I should at times). Gray's last 2 starts (against 2 subpar offenses including this Reds lineup) he has 6 BB's in 9 total IP. Both games at home but that doesn't affect him walking more guys. Command not great lately.

And while Great American BP isn't Coors, it is still a somewhat hitter friendly park.
 
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Yeah I guess I weight recency a lot (maybe more than I should at times). Gray's last 2 starts (against 2 subpar offenses including this Reds lineup) he has 6 BB's in 9 total IP. Both games at home but that doesn't affect him walking more guys. Command not great lately.

And while Great American BP isn't Coors, it is still a somewhat hitter friendly park.
I’m actually more likely to play Reds TT u4 but I don’t think I’ll bet on the game. I like the tigers play more
 
I took Braves first five for half a unit. Line didn’t make sense whatsoever to me
 
Just locked in Tigers first five innings +175
 
Just locked in Tigers first five innings +175

Let's get it. I have the same, plus Tigers +.5 at +125 for first five.
 
So I was thinking I'd get Cavs +2 or something for first half tonight. Nope. They are -0.5. No thanks, pass. Guess I'll pass or just live bet the game. My only lean was Cavs 1H but that was in thinking I'd be getting pts. So...it's a pass. Lame.
 
And...Hardy completely falling apart for the Tigers. Ugh.
 
I go take a shit when the score is Tigers 1-0 and come back to see Hardy gives up 3 doubles, a single, and a hit batter and now the score is 4-1

*noted: never go to the restroom until the game is over
 
Boom easy cash first 5 Rockies/Reds o5. Nice.
 
Degen prop play because evidently I had to have something pre game on the W's/Cavs

Klay Thompson pts+rebounds u23.5 at -150. 1.5u to win 1u.
 
I wont have a pre-game bet on the Warriors/Cavs but I'll probably look to hop on Warriors live if they fall behind early. I'll post if I do. Depends on a lot of factors
 
I go take a shit when the score is Tigers 1-0 and come back to see Hardy gives up 3 doubles, a single, and a hit batter and now the score is 4-1

*noted: never go to the restroom until the game is over

Nah, bruh. Then, both you AND your team will be full of shit.
:-/
 
I missed the boat on + odds but I’ll take the Warriors -2.5 for a little bit
 
I missed the boat on + odds but I’ll take the Warriors -2.5 for a little bit

I took W's -3 earlier, then added to them +115 ML when they got down a bit more. Thought about buying out of my -3 with Cavs +3 when it was tied and hoping for a narrow W's win but ended up passing and will just ride with my bets on Golden State I guess. Hope I don't regret it. **Watches Steph heading back toward locker room, ugh...**
 
I took W's -3 earlier, then added to them +115 ML when they got down a bit more. Thought about buying out of my -3 with Cavs +3 when it was tied and hoping for a narrow W's win but ended up passing and will just ride with my bets on Golden State I guess. Hope I don't regret it. **Watches Steph heading back toward locker room, ugh...**
He looks fine. Doubt it’s anything. Prob wants to be retaped
 
Tried to get warriors at +106 after live got fouled and dimes took the line down

Missed my spot
 
Durant drills the 3 from Akron, wow. Might be a ball stopper but damn is he impossible to guard.
 
There goes my Curry MVP prop hehe
 
There goes my Curry MVP prop hehe

Yeah...unless he maybe hits 10 threes next game and KD is quiet?

Nah, you're done LOL.
 
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