Official UFC 195 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Oblivian]

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Spoiler

Singles
Condit: $15 to win $16.50 Loss
Condit/Lawler ITD: $15 to win $13.29 Loss
Brandao: $7.50 to win $14.25 Loss
Trujillo: $5 to win $5.25 $10.25
Tanaka: $5 to win $4.17 $9.17
Holtzman: $5 to win $3.30 Loss
Larkin: $2.50 to win $5.50 Loss
Morono: $2.50 to win $6 $8.50

Risk of $57.50 $27.92

Parlays
Gastelum + Arlovski/Miocic ITD: $7.50 to win $4.17 (adjusted) $11.67
Gastelum + Kish: $7.50 to win $2.73 (adjusted) $10.23
McDonald + Ward: $5 to win $2.83 $7.83
Kish + Trujillo/Sims ITD: $5 to win $4.59 $9.59
Duffy + Fedor: $3.75 to win $2.36 Loss
Westcott (Scorecards = no action) + King Mo: $2.50 to win $2.88 $5.38
Jiri + Condit (-5.5): $1.25 to win $5.47 Loss

Risk of $32.50 $44.70

Hedge
Lawler via decision: $7.50 to win $24.75 $32.25

TOTAL RISK OF $97.50 $104.87

TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $97.50, Running total is $104.87, Running Profit = $7.37 (Approximate ROI for year 7.559%)
TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2721.56 Total Profit = $2702.56 (Approximate ROI: 12.8296%)

 

[BurningIce]

Oblivian, so based on your bets you think condit is going to finish lawler? I can see condit winning but im not sure lawler is human enough to get finished. Think condit uses similar strategy as against diaz.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Oblivian, so based on your bets you think condit is going to finish lawler? I can see condit winning but im not sure lawler is human enough to get finished. Think condit uses similar strategy as against diaz.

Lawler is hard to finish for sure but keep in mind that 28 of Condits 30 victories has been by finish.

EDIT: This is also Lawlers first fight post-USADA (atleast i think so, his last fight was 11/7).

 

[CudyFaShudy]

I think Stipe boxes up Arlovski while potentially running through that stout TDD he has. Not sure this is the best card for betting.

 

[ApplesVild]

Lawler, Condit is too behind the times and fragile now. I see Stipe getting a KO to, AA looked bad in the Mir fight and is just getting older and taking more damage as time goes on.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Lawler, Condit is too behind the times and fragile now. I see Stipe getting a KO to, AA looked bad in the Mir fight and is just getting older and taking more damage as time goes on.

Not sure about that (Condit). He had a great performance in May vs Thiago Alves.

 

[Gametheory]

Already bet Lawler. It's a good match up for Condit because in the sense that he doesn't have to worry about the takedown, but Robbie is just a better fighter.
Also got Poirier for a small bet.

Might bet Brandao at better odds. his wrestling and BJJ are good enough and he is probably better standing. Problem is that he folds (albeit against McGregor and Poirier) and has cardio and fight IQ problems, and Ortega is game.

Looking into Holtzman. Remember not being very impressed by his debut, despite the beatdown.

 

[sonhow]

Might bet Brandao at better odds. his wrestling and BJJ are good enough and he is probably better standing. Problem is that he folds (albeit against McGregor and Poirier) and has cardio and fight IQ problems, and Ortega is game.

Rogan actually said he didnt train for the Poirier fight beause of some sort of an accident (injury). He was hugged by Darren Elkins after giving his all in the first round. While Ortega is most likely a lot better in just about everything than Elkins I think that Diego has actually learnt from his mistakes and fought smarter in his longer lasting fights. Still this is a dangerous fight to bet him since we cant be sure how good Ortega is as of now. He beat Tavares but reminds me a bit of Jimmy Hettes...
I

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Thoughts on Larkin/Tumenov? Have not seen the lines but I think Albert takes this. Still close to a 50/50 fight.

 

[blokeybloke]

 

[blokeybloke]

I'm on Condit.

He's fresh & Lawler's been in too many wars lately. Has the advantage everywhere, except power, & doesn't have to worry about the TD.

Stick & move.

 

[Oblivian]

Oblivian, so based on your bets you think condit is going to finish lawler? I can see condit winning but im not sure lawler is human enough to get finished. Think condit uses similar strategy as against diaz.

I think Condit has a good chance to finish Lawler, and I really don't see Lawler winning this by decision.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Man idk if i've ever seen a card that I didn't like as much as this one for betting.

Hoping Lawler pulls through. I'm worried after the Rory fight, but as long as he looks in great shape i'll put some heavy juice on him. Maybe just stab dogs and livebet the rest.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I'm on Condit.

He's fresh & Lawler's been in too many wars lately. Has the advantage everywhere, except power, & doesn't have to worry about the TD.

Stick & move.

Def disagree with "has advantage everywhere"

Condit is a creative striker but Lawler has by far the better boxing, and better stand up defense.

I think you're also undervaluing Lawler's speed if you think Condit can work a Diaz strategy in this one. There were moments in the later rounds of the Rory fight where Lawler's speed and footwork looked second to none.

 

[vkram]

Was just looking at champ at the end of 2016 odds and found interesting ones

Wonderboy +3400 (1 win away from titleshot?)
Ferguson +1300 (If McGregor doesn't get the titleshot, then it has to be him?)
Overeem +1200 (next titleshot, depending on the AA/Stipe fight?)
Sterling +1500 (possible title shot at the end of 2016?)
Almeida +1700 (possible title shot at the end of 2016?)

 

[Joseph Budden]

Was just looking at champ at the end of 2016 odds and found interesting ones

Wonderboy +3400
Ferguson +1300
Overeem +1200
Sterling +1500
Almeida +1700

Reem and Almeida prob only ones worth a stab imo

 

[blokeybloke]

Def disagree with "has advantage everywhere"

Condit is a creative striker but Lawler has by far the better boxing, and better stand up defense.

I think you're also undervaluing Lawler's speed if you think Condit can work a Diaz strategy in this one. There were moments in the later rounds of the Rory fight where Lawler's speed and footwork looked second to none.

Rory has very stiff rudimental striking & kicks. Lawler will struggle to close the distance & find the longer Condit, imo.

Target practice for Carlos. Should finish Robbie ITD.

 

[blokeybloke]

Was just looking at champ at the end of 2016 odds and found interesting ones

Wonderboy +3400
Ferguson +1300
Overeem +1200
Sterling +1500
Almeida +1700

Did they have Gadhela's odds?

I see JJ being the next Champ to fall. IF she fights Gadhela & IF it takes place before Bones reclaims his belt from DC.

 

[vkram]

Reem and Almeida prob only ones worth a stab imo

If Wonderboy beats Hendricks then he is surely the next in line?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Rory has very stiff rudimental striking & kicks. Lawler will struggle to close the distance & find Condit, imo.

Man I disagree whole heartedly with this too lol. When Rory finds openings, like after the HK he landed on Lawler or anytime he had Woodley's back to the fence in their fight, he is the most fluid combination striker in the division, easily.

I don't expect Lawler to struggle at all to find Condit to be honest. The ONLY reason Condit's strategy worked on Diaz is cause he is plodding with his footwork.