Political Predictions Thread

[waiguoren]

I wrote dems taking house in 2018 otherwise looks good

Whoops. Sorry about that. Fixed.

 

[Farmer Br0wn]

@zebby23 @PureDominance @HomerThompson @Seano @Gutter Chris @Farmer Br0wn @Essie

I've attempted to codify your predictions in the OP. If you are dissatisfied with my representation of any of your predictions, reply here and I will try to tighten things up.

That's a fair representation of my position.

I would also like to add one more prediction.

The Republicans will gain 3-4 seats in the Senate in 2018.

 

[Gutter Chris]

@zebby23 @PureDominance @HomerThompson @Seano @Gutter Chris @Farmer Br0wn @Essie

I've attempted to codify your predictions in the OP. If you are dissatisfied with my representation of any of your predictions, reply here and I will try to tighten things up.

To clarify I think whatever the health issue is it will be disclosed it just wont be true and he just doesnt want to be in the hot seat any longer or face losing

 

[Bobby 3 Sticks]

That's a fair representation of my position.

I would also like to add one more prediction.

The Republicans will gain 3-4 seats in the Senate in 2018.

The deck is stacked hard (not in a rigged manner) against Dems for 18 in the Senate 4 definitely isn't unreasonable

 

[waiguoren]

To clarify I think whatever the health issue is it will be disclosed it just wont be true and he just doesnt want to be in the hot seat any longer or face losing

How about this?

2. Donald Trump will pull out of the 2020 presidential race before election day. The stated reason will be a health issue.

I'm only going for 100% verifiable stuff, and there wouldn't necessarily be any way to reliably verify if the health issue were fabricated. Same for his motivations on the pullout.

 

[Gutter Chris]

How about this?

2. Donald Trump will pull out of the 2020 presidential race before election day. The stated reason will be a health issue.

I'm only going for 100% verifiable stuff, and there wouldn't necessarily be any way to reliably verify if the health issue were fabricated. Same for his motivations on the pullout.

Close enough that will work

 

[JosephDredd]

Again, courts don't create new types of crimes. That is the job of legislatures. I'm willing to bet you that Trump will never be found guilty of any crime called "collusion" by any court.

You're assuming that your understanding of the laws is correct. After my experience reading your posts, I'm assuming the opposite. I want to know if you're willing to be corrected if reality doesn't go the way you think it will. It sounds like you are.

 

[waiguoren]

You're assuming that your understanding of the laws is correct.

Yes. I have been on this planet for a few decades and have never heard of a federal crime called "collusion" that is applied to Americans who attempt to influence the outcome of a US election through cooperation with a foreign government. Furthermore, the legal experts whose writings I read share the same view.

After my experience reading your posts, I'm assuming the opposite

Which post or posts of mine indicates that my understanding of federal law is flawed?

I want to know if you're willing to be corrected if reality doesn't go the way you think it will. It sounds like you are.

Always.

 

[Limbo Pete]

I see @waiguoren got sick of trawling for bets and decided to hunker down like a croc in a watering hole instead

 

[VivaRevolution]

Share your predictions about elections, government personnel changes, investigations, indictments/convictions or specific policies. For example, @zebby23 recently predicted that Trump will lose the 2020 Republican primary. No childish BS (personal attacks or thread derailing).

My predictions:

1. Trump will not lose the 2020 Republican primary contest.
   
2. If Trump makes it to election day 2020, he will win re-election.
   
3. Trump will not be indicted for any crimes while in office.
   
4. Robert Mueller's investigation will not conclude that Trump attempted to offer US policy concessions to Russia in exchange for access to the hacked DNC e-mails.
5. Martin O'Malley, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand will all announce candidacies for president for 2020.
   
6. Cory Booker will not be the Democratic nominee in 2020.
7. The Republicans will hold the Senate in the 2018 election.
8. Trump will not be removed from office via political means (e.g., 25th Amendment, impeachment+removal)

If you dare challenge any of my predictions, I will be happy to take your signature via sigbet.


@PureDominance 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be jailed prior to the 2020 election, during the early stages of campaigning. The official charges will be obstruction of justice and conspiracy against the state.

@HomerThompson's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be removed from office on, or before, December 31st, 2019.

@zebby23 's predictions:

1. John Kasich will defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 Republican primary.
2. John Kasich will lose to the Democratic nominee for president in the 2020 US presidential election.

@Essie 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
2. The Republicans will hold the Senate in 2018.
3. The Mueller investigation won't conclude until after 2019

@Farmer Br0wn 's predictions:

1. President Trump will stay in office until January 20, 2025
2. The Republicans will gain three or four seats on net in the 2018 elections.

@Seano's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be indicted on at least one criminal charge.
2. Donald Trump will serve no more than one term as president.

@Gutter Chris 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump wont be charged with any crimes during his tenure as president.
2. Donald Trump will pull out of the 2020 presidential race before election day. The stated reason will be a health issue.
3. Hillary Clinton will not run for president in 2020.

[B]@Bobby 3 Sticks[/B]'s predictions:

1. Adam Schiff will run for president as a Democrat in the 2020 presidential campaign.

2. On net, the Republican party will gain Senate seats in the 2018 election.

3. The Democrats will hold the majority of seats in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2018 election.

4. Mitt Romney will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020.

5. Donald Trump will be listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in a criminal case before the conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election.

@bobgeese's predictions:

1. Nikki Haley will be the first female president of the United States.

I'll take a bet on trump not winning re-election in 2020.

I think the most likely scenario is he knows he will lose in the primary, and chooses not to seek re-election.

Second most likely that he loses in the primary.

Third most likely that he loses in the general.

I find the least likely scenario to be trump winning re-election.

I'm 80% sure Bernie is going to run in 2020, but 80% isn't enough to make a prediction on.

So I will hedge. If Bernie runs in 2020, he wins the democratic nomination, and becomes the next president.

I know it is a bold prediction to choose the most popular politician in the country to win if he decides to run, but I'm going to run with it.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

I'm pretty much in line with OP's prediction.

Here's mine: our options will suck, again

 

[waiguoren]

Considering:

The Republican Party will have control of the House of Representatives on February 5, 2019.

 

[Fawlty]

Considering:

The Republican Party will have control of the House of Representatives on February 5, 2019.

name your terms

 

[Fawlty]

I see @waiguoren got sick of trawling for bets and decided to hunker down like a croc in a watering hole instead

 

[elfeliz]

Trump will be re-elected in 2020, he will continue making money for himself and his swamp buddies off the presidency meanwhile trump supporters remain the uneducated rejects of society, blaming liberals for all their problems. they will continue posting pictures of cartoon frogs all while complaining why women dont want to have sex with them.

 

[Gandhi]

I’ll make a more broad prediction

- A republican will primary challenge trump
- if that happens Trump will win the primary fight but lose the general

 

[Fawlty]

What do you guys think happens if we get stuck in a war with Iran? Historically that's great for the incumbent, but that seems to be changing. Would the Dem run explicitly anti-Iran War, and would that work?

 

[waiguoren]

Trump will be re-elected in 2020, he will continue making money for himself and his swamp buddies off the presidency meanwhile trump supporters remain the uneducated rejects of society, blaming liberals for all their problems. they will continue posting pictures of cartoon frogs all while complaining why women dont want to have sex with them.

Only one of these predictions is specific enough. I will add it to the OP.

 

[VivaRevolution]

 

[waiguoren]

I’ll make a more broad prediction

- A republican will primary challenge trump
- if that happens Trump will win the primary fight but lose the general

Incumbents always have primary challengers in presidential elections. For example, in 2012 Obama had multiple primary challengers including "Dark Priest" inmate Keith Russell Judd.