PotWR- The Power of the Pardon

[Jack V Savage]

You're being silly again. I didn't defend anyone. I laughed at the clique of teenage girls because it's cute.

As for "smarter" posters, I'll keep my opinion on that to myself for the same reason above.

You don't think that the folks who have expressed annoyance with the posters named here are smarter than them? What are some of your favorite posts by Seano, Soulcrusher and ODB?

 

[waiguoren]

You don't think that the folks who have expressed annoyance with the posters named here are smarter than them? What are some of your favorite posts by Seano, Soulcrusher and ODB?

Not gonna play this game. If you want to talk predictions/bets, political philosophy, abstract algebra or anything else intellectually stimulating, you can come find me.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Not gonna play this game. If you want to talk predictions/bets, political philosophy, abstract algebra or anything else intellectually stimulating, you can come find me.

No, I know you're not going to play it, and that was the point. I believe that you more or less agree with the takes on those posters, but you consider them to be in your tribe so you're offended by the criticism. That leaves you in an awkward position.

What do you think of my pending bet with SBJJ? He seems to believe that GDP growth is primarily determined by presidents, and since the current president is in his party, inevitably growth will be stronger than it was when the president was in the other party. My thinking is that in ordinary (and current) circumstances, it has almost nothing to do with the president, but it's currently tracking below the target that he set and there will be some headwinds in H2 (plus I think that the long-term baseline is below the target he set). IOW, he's betting that growth will pick up in H2, while I see more reason to think that it will fall in H2. I don't see him winning as impossible, but I felt OK making the bet, despite my general belief that predicting GDP growth over a short period with any accuracy is impossible.

 

[waiguoren]

No, I know you're not going to play it, and that was the point. I believe that you more or less agree with the takes on those posters, but you consider them to be in your tribe so you're offended by the criticism. That leaves you in an awkward position.

I haven't interacted with them enough to judge them. The few times I've interacted with @oleDirtyBast4rd and @Seano I have found them to be reasonable.

As for your bet, I think it's significantly riskier than any of the seven bets I've taken. I don't think GDP growth is very predictable. I think the tax cuts, continued loose monetary policy and relaxation of regulations are pro-growth over the short-run and make this 50/50 for you at best.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I haven't interacted with them enough to judge them. The few times I've interacted with @oleDirtyBast4rd and @Seano I have found them to be reasonable.

FYI, @Seano hates to be tagged. And you being backed into saying that you've found them to be reasonable is funnier than the half-defense. You think Obama doubled the debt? That deliberately increasing deficits via regressive tax cuts to force spending decreases is something that counts as fiscally responsible (or non-stupid)?

As for your bet, I think it's significantly riskier than any of the seven bets I've taken. I don't think GDP growth is very predictable. I think the tax cuts, continued loose monetary policy and relaxation of regulations are pro-growth over the short-run and make this 50/50 for you at best.

I'd expect further tightening if growth is looking good, actually. I haven't checked recently, but I believe we're over the Fed's estimate of potential GDP. Another reason to expect me to win. They other stuff is insignificant. I don't think the tax cuts will be pro-growth at all, particularly over a short period (even optimistic estimates show such a small effect that it will be indistinguishable from normal variation). Don't know what regulations you're referring to, but I haven't seen anything that could plausibly increase growth. Allowing more polluting, sexual assaults, and ripoffs by credit-card companies isn't going to boost GDP. Plus, as I got at, it looks like a pull-forward of demand ahead of tariffs was a material factor in the relatively strong Q2 growth (still up only 2.8% YOY, while the bet is that it has to exceed 2.9% for the full year). I'll take a meta bet on that with you (I bet that I win my bet with SBJJ), if you want, though you'll have to wait for the sig in the unlikely event that you win.

I think you're making the same mistake SBJJ is. Making a prediction based on nothing more than tribalism.

 

[oleDirtyBast4rd]

@oleDirtyBast4rd is easily the biggest piece of shit on this forum.

I think ODB is a good pick, in that he's right on the ignore border but can also put in enough effort to draw you in.

ODB has probably the highest volume of bad faith posting on Sherdog. Not sure what some of y'all are smoking.

Geez, didn't realize I made that much of an impact on you fellas.

 

[oleDirtyBast4rd]

That deliberately increasing deficits via regressive tax cuts to force spending decreases is something that counts as fiscally responsible

I never called it fiscally responsible you dolt. Be more dishonest?

 

[InternetHero]

Not gonna play this game. If you want to talk predictions/bets, political philosophy, abstract algebra or anything else intellectually stimulating, you can come find me.

Abstract Algebra?

X + Y = XY.

Score!

I remember getting into the machinations of really advanced mathematics in physics and immediately thought, "No, I'll do something else with my life."

Although, it is truly admirable when someone can A - Enjoy mathematics, and B - Understand anything consequential about the lives of others at the same time.

Many times those encased in such pursuits close off their minds to a lot of other forms of thought.

 

[waiguoren]

Abstract Algebra?

X + Y = XY.

Score!

I remember getting into the machinations of really advanced mathematics in physics and immediately thought, "No, I'll do something else with my life."

Although, it is truly admirable when someone can A - Enjoy mathematics, and B - Understand anything consequential about the lives of others at the same time.

Many times those encased in such pursuits close off their minds to a lot of other forms of thought.

There's something about math that drives people a little crazy. Somehow the mind doesn't handle the real world and that degree of abstraction simultaneously. One of my best childhood friends got more and more distant from his friends/family as he got deeper into his graduate program.

On the plus side, there is no other pursuit I am aware of that sharpens one's reasoning skills as much a proof-writing.

 

[Trotsky]

As for "smarter" posters, I'll keep my opinion on that to myself for the same reason above.

If you cannot acknowledge an intellectual divide between JVS and ODB, then you're truly a partisan hack.

Also, it's not a clique: it's a coalition for reason. If it weren't for the political right going full moron and abandoning all regard for truth, principle, or basic fact, there wouldn't be a new hodge podge of leftists, liberals, and sensible centrists that is increasingly forming across American culture. Anyways, we mostly just talk about Dawson's Creek and One Tree Hill, so get over yourself.

FYI, @Seano hates to be tagged.

If you know he hates to be tagged, then you really shouldn't tag him.

I got you, @Seano.

 

[HomerThompson]

I never called it fiscally responsible you dolt. Be more dishonest?

 

[InternetHero]

There's something about math that drives people a little crazy. Somehow the mind doesn't handle the real world and that degree of abstraction simultaneously. One of my best childhood friends got more and more distant from his friends/family as he got deeper into his graduate program.

On the plus side, there is no other pursuit I am aware of that sharpens one's reasoning skills as much a proof-writing.

That is true.

One can find the same phenomenon at play here in the War Room when trying to explain philosophical concepts or theories to a general audience, let alone when wading into the drudgery of politics.

What a marvel that so many minds can master so many things.

 

[InternetHero]

The "straight man" / "reporters" reaction is pretty good too.

He looks to be in equal measure full of fear, befuddlement, and awe of scopes.

 

[Quipling]

There's something about math that drives people a little crazy. Somehow the mind doesn't handle the real world and that degree of abstraction simultaneously. One of my best childhood friends got more and more distant from his friends/family as he got deeper into his graduate program.

On the plus side, there is no other pursuit I am aware of that sharpens one's reasoning skills as much a proof-writing.

Meh. I was involved in "competitive" math for a while and have a couple acquaintances from back then. A fair number of the ones who stuck to it through graduate school are weird now, but they were weird then. Some aren't.

 

[Trotsky]

Meh. I was involved in "competitive" math for a while and have a couple acquaintances from back then. A fair number of the ones who stuck to it through graduate school are weird now, but they were weird then. Some aren't.

 

[Trotsky]

There's something about math that drives people a little crazy. Somehow the mind doesn't handle the real world and that degree of abstraction simultaneously. One of my best childhood friends got more and more distant from his friends/family as he got deeper into his graduate program.

On the plus side, there is no other pursuit I am aware of that sharpens one's reasoning skills as much a proof-writing.

Watch this movie

 

[Quipling]

I changed my vote

 

[HomerThompson]

I changed my vote

 

[Trotsky]

I changed my vote

Bitch, this ain't no direct democracy we're running here. This is a representative democracy, and your elected leader exercised his executive powers. I'm as home free as that Klansman sheriff from AZ.

 

[Quipling]

Bitch, this ain't no direct democracy we're running here. This is a representative democracy, and your elected leader exercised his executive powers. I'm as home free as that Klansman sheriff from AZ.

I want you to know that I posted a not-meme in the meme thread. I hope it hurts you as much as it hurt me.