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Hi there fellow sherbros, in the past few days i have been analyzing both fighters and decided to share with you my thoughts on them and how do why think this fight will play out.
-This is one of the most exciting and intriguing match ups at 155 at the moment. What we will have in this fight is a battle of who can impose his will, 2 pressure and agressive fighters but with different styles of pressuring.
The path for Tony Ferguson:
-Now for him have success the key is pressure, pressure and pressure. He needs to be in a constant high pace(which he always does) because Dos Anjos has shown in the past that he doesn`t deal well whenever he’s being pressured. He tends to back himself up to the cage which Tony can take advantage because he will now have a easy target to hit with his overwhelming and criative striking.
--While Dos Anjos pressuring style is more around his agression, Tony`s pressure is all about his unpredictability has he comes forward with great unorthodox striking.
-That unorthodox style has tools like a great jab
-Straights
-Standing elbows
-He also mixes it up perfectly with rolling for kneebars or leg locks and rolling is also a tool he uses to get away from danger on the feet or in the grappling exchanges, it`s very crafty and smooth, here is some examples of that.
-Talking about the grappling, Tony has a nasty submission game. His submission of Edson Barboza was a thing of beauty and so impressive because not only he was so quick to catch it, it was amazing that he could lock it so tight considering that they were so slippery with all the sweat and blood. He has a whole submission repertory with arm triangles, rear naked choke, he loves that D`arce choke, the squeeze and tecnhique is one of the best i ever seen, and he comes out of nowhere and next thing you know, you getting chocked out.
-So for Tony he really needs to overwhelm Dos Anjos pressuring style with his own while being creative and unpredictable with his shots. He needs to draw Dos Anjos into a brawl, a ugly, dog fight which will benefite his usual style where he doesn`t mind to get hit to get his shots in and Dos Anjos is coming off of a brutal beating from Eddie so who knows how his chin can hold up in several exchanges that Tony might be able to draw him in.
So how does RDA deals with this??
- Well, for Dos Anjos the key is not letting Tony be first, he can`t let Tony find his rhythm and timming because from there El Cucuy is very hard to stop, if he backs up in a straight line, he will only make it easier for Ferguson to catch him with combos.
- From there, what can give Dos Anjos the advantage is his footwork, angles, faints, movement and agression. Those 5 things were what gave him the Lightweight World title at UFC 185 when he dismantle Antonhy Pettis who btw, was another unorthodox striker, so Dos Anjos has dealt with it and on a much higher tecnhical level because that was Antonhy Pettis and Tony Ferguson defense is almost non existent.
-Tony`s style is based on eating big shots to land his own, this won’t work forever. Not because he might meet a great counter striker that can shut his game out(Vannata was very close) but because the chin can only take so much before getting cracked.
- So RDA needs to be first, more agressive(the better bully) and use the angles. He has the footwork, speed and power to make it work.
-Using the angles is not just in the striking department, Dos Anjos is excellent at cutting space, getting you backing up to a small space were he can get in range and land viciously
-We talked about Tony`s unpredictability but Dos Anjos has shown that he can also have that, he can very well surprise Tony with something out of the box because he is not expecting something out of that arsenal that Rafael usually shows, Bendo learn that in the hard way.
-To complement this strategy RDA has one more tool in his arsenal who can be a huge factor in this fight: His wrestling.
-Exact same thing like above, cutting space, getting you backing up to a small space were he can get in range and...Take you down.
-We talked about El Cucuy`s submission game but Dos Anjos is a very solid BJJ black belt with great wrestling and when he takes people down he usually has success with keeping them down his excellent top control while Tony when taken down usually does a great job of scrambling back to his feet or control the position.
-He also has a very slick guard so i imagine he will have multiple submission attempts at Rafael just to keep him in check and test his attention and defense. It will definitely be super interesting to see the grappling battle if this fight ends up on the ground.
-So in conclusion, i think this will be a 5 round war and the winner will be the man who can implement his pressuring style better, Dos Anjos has more tools standing up and his very solid on the ground, Tony is more creative with his striking and has a super submission game but is not has complete of a grappler like RDA. I give the advantage to Dos Anjos but Tony is very much capable of continuing to put people away of his path to a titleshot.
Thank you for the reading and if you are interested i also made one breakdown to the Woodley\Wonderboy fight, you can read it here:
http://origin.forums.sherdog.com/th...thompson-my-breakdown-and-prediction.3375831/
-This is one of the most exciting and intriguing match ups at 155 at the moment. What we will have in this fight is a battle of who can impose his will, 2 pressure and agressive fighters but with different styles of pressuring.
The path for Tony Ferguson:
-Now for him have success the key is pressure, pressure and pressure. He needs to be in a constant high pace(which he always does) because Dos Anjos has shown in the past that he doesn`t deal well whenever he’s being pressured. He tends to back himself up to the cage which Tony can take advantage because he will now have a easy target to hit with his overwhelming and criative striking.
--While Dos Anjos pressuring style is more around his agression, Tony`s pressure is all about his unpredictability has he comes forward with great unorthodox striking.
-That unorthodox style has tools like a great jab
-Straights
-Standing elbows
-He also mixes it up perfectly with rolling for kneebars or leg locks and rolling is also a tool he uses to get away from danger on the feet or in the grappling exchanges, it`s very crafty and smooth, here is some examples of that.
-Talking about the grappling, Tony has a nasty submission game. His submission of Edson Barboza was a thing of beauty and so impressive because not only he was so quick to catch it, it was amazing that he could lock it so tight considering that they were so slippery with all the sweat and blood. He has a whole submission repertory with arm triangles, rear naked choke, he loves that D`arce choke, the squeeze and tecnhique is one of the best i ever seen, and he comes out of nowhere and next thing you know, you getting chocked out.
-So for Tony he really needs to overwhelm Dos Anjos pressuring style with his own while being creative and unpredictable with his shots. He needs to draw Dos Anjos into a brawl, a ugly, dog fight which will benefite his usual style where he doesn`t mind to get hit to get his shots in and Dos Anjos is coming off of a brutal beating from Eddie so who knows how his chin can hold up in several exchanges that Tony might be able to draw him in.
So how does RDA deals with this??
- Well, for Dos Anjos the key is not letting Tony be first, he can`t let Tony find his rhythm and timming because from there El Cucuy is very hard to stop, if he backs up in a straight line, he will only make it easier for Ferguson to catch him with combos.
- From there, what can give Dos Anjos the advantage is his footwork, angles, faints, movement and agression. Those 5 things were what gave him the Lightweight World title at UFC 185 when he dismantle Antonhy Pettis who btw, was another unorthodox striker, so Dos Anjos has dealt with it and on a much higher tecnhical level because that was Antonhy Pettis and Tony Ferguson defense is almost non existent.
-Tony`s style is based on eating big shots to land his own, this won’t work forever. Not because he might meet a great counter striker that can shut his game out(Vannata was very close) but because the chin can only take so much before getting cracked.
- So RDA needs to be first, more agressive(the better bully) and use the angles. He has the footwork, speed and power to make it work.
-Using the angles is not just in the striking department, Dos Anjos is excellent at cutting space, getting you backing up to a small space were he can get in range and land viciously
-We talked about Tony`s unpredictability but Dos Anjos has shown that he can also have that, he can very well surprise Tony with something out of the box because he is not expecting something out of that arsenal that Rafael usually shows, Bendo learn that in the hard way.
-To complement this strategy RDA has one more tool in his arsenal who can be a huge factor in this fight: His wrestling.
-Exact same thing like above, cutting space, getting you backing up to a small space were he can get in range and...Take you down.
-We talked about El Cucuy`s submission game but Dos Anjos is a very solid BJJ black belt with great wrestling and when he takes people down he usually has success with keeping them down his excellent top control while Tony when taken down usually does a great job of scrambling back to his feet or control the position.
-He also has a very slick guard so i imagine he will have multiple submission attempts at Rafael just to keep him in check and test his attention and defense. It will definitely be super interesting to see the grappling battle if this fight ends up on the ground.
-So in conclusion, i think this will be a 5 round war and the winner will be the man who can implement his pressuring style better, Dos Anjos has more tools standing up and his very solid on the ground, Tony is more creative with his striking and has a super submission game but is not has complete of a grappler like RDA. I give the advantage to Dos Anjos but Tony is very much capable of continuing to put people away of his path to a titleshot.
Thank you for the reading and if you are interested i also made one breakdown to the Woodley\Wonderboy fight, you can read it here:
http://origin.forums.sherdog.com/th...thompson-my-breakdown-and-prediction.3375831/
