RED TIDE 2018: Can Republicans win a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate?

Will Republicans win 60 seats in the 2018 Midterms


  • Total voters
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i don't think 2018 is going to go well for republicans. maybe i'm wrong though.

the left are foaming at the mouth ready to vote.
 
New poll has neo confederate corey Stewart, with a trump endorsement to boot, losing by almost 20% points. Barbara comstock down 9.
 
Obama had 6 months with a veto proof majority. Once McConnell made his famous comments of obstruction, Obama should have shoved every piece of legislation he could down the Republicans throats for those 6 months.
100% this. And now look where we are.
 
Not all the seats are up for election this year. 9 Republican seats and 26 Democrat Senatorial seats are being voted on. If it is a slaughter for incumbents all around, that seems to bode well for the Republicans.

I thought Dems were far too optimistic a few months back, because their platform currently is hysterical rage, which doesn't play well outside motivating the party's base. I also think their needless antagonism is equally motivating their opponent's base. Now I think Republicans are becoming too optimistic. We've seen midterms before where the party in power lost majorities in a good economy with decent polling.

I suspect Dems gain seats in the House and lose a few in the Senate, but Dems miss a majority in the House and Republicans don't get a veto proof Senate.
I might be wrong here, but I think he meant the incumbent as in who is the president. Historically whomever is president their party takes a pasting in the first election cycle after they are inaugurated. Hence why people think the Democrats will take it.

Democrats haven't come in with a unifying plan other than "stop Trump" which might play well with some, but isn't a clear cut governing plan. The one bright spot the Democrats have is that they are is such disarray nationally that is leaves things fairly open on the local level. The candidates can focus on their own local issues instead of the Republican plan of sending in out of state resources to help bolster their candidates. The other issue for the Republicans are the divisions between the pro-Trump and anti-Trump people, currently the party has at least optically steered pro-Trump but even a small portion of disenfranchised Republicans can have enough sway to either make them stay home, do a write in candidate or actually vote for the democrat (very minimal, but possible). Basically the Republican party has thrown all it's eggs in the Trump basket, in the hopes that it will carry them. We'll just have to wait and see if it works for them, if not I think you'll start to see other Republicans diverge from Trump and the luster will be lost. If it does work for him they might as well change the name of the party from Republicans the Trumpicans, because everyone in that party of any relevance will fall in line.
 
'afternoon Viva,

Those voters are indeed why Trump won, but they are a small %, that pushed the GOP over the top.

The vast majority of GOP voters in midterms are baby boomers.

Out of the baby boomers you know. How do most traditional Republican baby boomer voters feel about Trump in your experience?

among the baby boomers i know (whom i mostly know only professionally) this is the vibe i get;

"I don't agree with everything he says, but he makes sense alot of the time"

i live in a relatively affluent, banking city. there's signs of expansion and growth all over the place...and Charlotte is still a southern city.

i sense the same thing i've sensed for the last year.

the left is divided and outraged.
democratic centrists are also outraged.
moderates in the GOP are cowed into compliance.
ditto the evangelicals.
ditto fiscal conservatives.
ditto Ron Paul libertarians.

Mr. Trump's support, such that it is, seems ironclad. as a matter of fact, his popularity has been on a steady upswing since last November.

the Democrats, to my way of thinking, really mistook the message of Roy Moore's defeat. progressive issues are not what the folks of Alabama rallied to - they just couldn't quite vote for someone accused of being a pedophile.

it was not an "issues" win.

if the economy continues to sail along, i'm unclear what it is that will really rally the Democratic party to the polls. that's what it will take, you know? there is no news or revelation that seems capable of denting Mr. Trump's support amongst the faithful.

- IGIT
 
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Obama had 6 months with a veto proof majority. Once McConnell made his famous comments of obstruction, Obama should have shoved every piece of legislation he could down the Republicans throats for those 6 months.

ahoy Viva,

Mr. Obama's problem wasn't really the Republicans. it was the Blue Dogs.

it was their throats that he had to shove legislation down.

he didn't do that. the Blue Dogs got massacred in the mid terms anyway.

a tactical and political error by the young POTUS.

- IGIT
 
Obama had 6 months with a veto proof majority. Once McConnell made his famous comments of obstruction, Obama should have shoved every piece of legislation he could down the Republicans throats for those 6 months.
Democrats haven't learned that they can't always play nice. Obama was particularly bad about that, despite having the best intentions.
 
if the economy continues to sail along, i'm unclear what it is that will really rally the Democratic party to the polls. that's what it will take, you know? there is no news or revelation that seems capable of denting Mr. Trump's support amongst the faithful.
I'm thinking democrats will vote like a stampede of raging impeach-asaurus's. I guess we'll see if that happens and if it makes any difference.
 
100% this. And now look where we are.

That's why the Democratic route of "taking the high road" and playing fair has been an absolute mistake and its time to play hardball. But might be too late.
 
I'm thinking democrats will vote like a stampede of raging impeach-asaurus's. I guess we'll see if that happens and if it makes any difference.

I think Republicans will do the same. The question is where will they vote? Will Dems be as enthusiastic in MI and WI as they are in CA and NY?
 
Democrats haven't learned that they can't always play nice. Obama was particularly bad about that, despite having the best intentions.

C'mon dude. The exact opposite is true. Are Republicans harassing Democrats in public? Are Republicans refusing to serve Democrats? Did a Republican try to shoot an entire baseball team of Congressional Democrats? Are Republicans rioting in the streets? No, of course not. Democrats are guilty of that almost exclusively. Centrists, moderates, and other "swing" voters are put off by the shrill cries of "the Resistance."
 
That's why the Democratic route of "taking the high road" and playing fair has been an absolute mistake and its time to play hardball. But might be too late.

It's never too late, Eddy. I encourage you to turn it up. Play "hardball." Be louder, angrier, and meaner than ever before. That is what your party has been missing this whole time.
 
C'mon dude. The exact opposite is true. Are Republicans harassing Democrats in public? Are Republicans refusing to serve Democrats? Did a Republican try to shoot an entire baseball team of Congressional Democrats? Are Republicans rioting in the streets? No, of course not. Democrats are guilty of that almost exclusively. Centrists, moderates, and other "swing" voters are put off by the shrill cries of "the Resistance."
Derail noted, derail ignored
 
Derail noted, derail ignored

I started this thread. It was specifically about the Republican path to 60 seats in the 2018 midterm Senate races. Here you are talking about how Dems generally need to stop "playing nice." Looks like you're the one derailing.

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I think Republicans will do the same. The question is where will they vote? Will Dems be as enthusiastic in MI and WI as they are in CA and NY?
It's hard to say, but the trend in all the primaries so far has been a pretty significant increase in turn out across the board for the dems.
MI and WI are months away from primaries, though.
 
It's hard to say, but the trend in all the primaries so far has been a pretty significant increase in turn out across the board for the dems.
MI and WI are months away from primaries, though.

If you look at the CA primaries, Dems actually decreased turnout. It was the opposite of what was predicted. This is all in the wake of North Korea, good news about the economy, fall of ISIS, etc. I think many swing voters aren't that upset about Trump.
 
Interesting number for brown. in ohio!
 
ahoy Viva,

Mr. Obama's problem wasn't really the Republicans. it was the Blue Dogs.

it was their throats that he had to shove legislation down.

he didn't do that. the Blue Dogs got massacred in the mid terms anyway.

a tactical and political error by the young POTUS.

- IGIT

One of those times his inexperience really made a difference. Can't honestly level that criticism too often.
 
'afternoon Viva,



among the baby boomers i know (whom i mostly know only professionally) this is the vibe i get;

"I don't agree with everything he says, but he makes sense alot of the time"

i live in a relatively affluent, banking city. there's signs of expansion and growth all over the place...and Charlotte is still a southern city.

i sense the same thing i've sensed for the last year.

the left is divided and outraged.
democratic centrists are also outraged.
moderates in the GOP are cowed into compliance.
ditto the evangelicals.
ditto fiscal conservatives.
ditto Ron Paul libertarians.

Mr. Trump's support, such that it is, seems ironclad. as a matter of fact, his popularity has been on a steady upswing since last November.

the Democrats, to my way of thinking, really mistook the message of Roy Moore's defeat. progressive issues are not what the folks of Alabama rallied to - they just couldn't quite vote for someone accused of being a pedophile.

it was not an "issues" win.

if the economy continues to sail along, i'm unclear what it is that will really rally the Democratic party to the polls. that's what it will take, you know? there is no news or revelation that seems capable of denting Mr. Trump's support amongst the faithful.

- IGIT

Good post, but my point is that the small % of Trump's enthused base, is just that, a small %.

If that base made up 3% of Republican voters, and baby boomers during midterms make up, let's say 60% of the Republican vote, then if 10% of that 60% don't show up, or vote Democrat or Independent because they are turned off by Trump's juvenile, and egotistical rantings, that loss is twice what he gained with his enthused deplorable base.

Has 1 in 10 baby boomers Republicans you know, denounced Trump based on his rhetoric?

For me, my experience has been 3 in 10 denouncing Trump over his decorum, although I imagine a western Washington Republican and a North Cackolacky baby boomer Republican, are a bit different.
 
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