Francis definitely looks like a killer after the Overeem fight, but a few things to keep in mind:
- It's HW. They both have the power to put someone down with one punch. Just because Stipe looks like a generic big, in shape white dude and Ngannou looks like he jumped off the pages of a comic book doesn't mean Francis has a significant power and strength edge. He probably has some as he's a fantastic pure athlete, but it's not like they're operating in different realms in terms of physicality.
- Stipe has a deep wrestling background whereas Ngannou has only been doing MMA, his first combat sport, for 5 years. He's actually developed quite a depth of skill for having trained only that short of a time, but Stipe is still likely to have greater depth of skill and should be able to put Francis in situations where he doesn't react quickly enough and ends up in a bad spot.
- Stipe has a hell of a chin. JDS is no slouch when it comes to power, and he threw everything he had at Miocic and couldn't finish him. Francis might hit a little harder than JDS, but I wouldn't assume that the first shot he hits Miocic with will put him down. Conversely, we really don't know that much about Ngannou's chin, and I expect Stipe to land some shots. With explosive, massive punchers if you can prove you can handle their punch it can break something in them mentally like Douglas did with Tyson. I could see Stipe taking a few good shots early and then Francis exhausting himself and mentally giving up the fight when he realizes he's probably not going to finish Miocic easily.
Francis is improving so rapidly and hits so hard that this could easily go either way, but for the moment I'm still banking on the champ. But it's HW MMA, any result is possible on any given day. One big punch from either guy ends this in an instant.