Terribad Polls for Trumpublicans Two Months Before Midterms

[luckyshot]

Note: Anyone who says "Polls were wrong in 2016" is outing himself as not knowing what a poll is. The national polls were quite accurate in 2016.

I'm not the guy to make a thread every time there is a new poll, but a batch of polls came out this past week that are really bad for the GOP just a couple of months out from the midterms.

Highlights:

• The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is up to 12 points according to a new NPR/ Marist poll, up from 7 in July on the same poll. The fivethirtyeight average of all polls gives Democrats a 9 point lead.
  
• The increasing Democratic lead has been driven by voters in the Midwest. Voters in the Midwest have swung 13 points in the Democratic direction since July, according to the Marist poll.
• There has been an 11 point shift towards Democrats in small towns, and a 6 point shift towards Democrats in rural areas.
• Democrats now enjoy a 56 to 34 advantage over the GOP in suburbs-- and many of the Congressional "swing districts" up for grabs in November are heavily suburban.
• Trump won the presidency partially due to unexpectedly strong performance with women (he got 41% of the female vote). But women have shifted Democratic more heavily than any other group since that time. Women say they favor Democratic candidates 62 to 28 percent for these upcoming midterms.
• Three separate polls this past week have Trump's overall approval rating back below 40 percent-- the lowest it has been since February.

I'm not saying there is going to be a blue wave-- GOP gerrymandering and a historically favorable Senate map may be too much for Democrats to overcome-- but this data should have the GOP thinking, if not outright worrying.

One possible explanation for the left shift since summer is the effects of Trump's trade war on Midwestern agriculture and auto making. Another possibility is that many working class people, particularly in the Midwest, are getting tired of hearing how great the economy is without seeing it "trickle down" to their wages in a really meaningful way.

"Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring."

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/6468...-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

 

[HomerThompson]

I'm not the guy to make a thread every time there is a new poll, but a batch of polls came out this past week that are really bad for the GOP just a couple of months out from the midterms.

Highlights:

• The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is up to 12 points according to a new NPR/ Marist poll, up from 7 in July on the same poll. The fivethirtyeight average of all polls gives Democrats a 9 point lead.
  
• The increasing Democratic lead has been driven by voters in the Midwest. Voters in the Midwest have swung 13 points in the Democratic direction since July, according to the Marist poll.
• There has been an 11 point shift towards Democrats in small towns, and a 6 point shift towards Democrats in rural areas.
• Democrats now enjoy a 56 to 34 advantage over the GOP in suburbs-- and many of the Congressional "swing districts" up for grabs in November are heavily suburban.
• Trump won the presidency partially due to unexpectedly strong performance with women (he got 41% of the female vote). But women have shifted Democratic more heavily than any other group since that time. Women say they favor Democratic candidates 62 to 28 percent for these upcoming midterms.
• Three separate polls this past week have Trump's overall approval rating back below 40 percent-- the lowest it has been since February.

I'm not saying there is going to be a blue wave-- GOP gerrymandering and a historically favorable Senate map may be too much for Democrats to overcome-- but this data should have the GOP thinking, if not outright worrying.

One possible explanation for the left shift since summer is the effects of Trump's trade war on Midwestern agriculture and auto making. Another possibility is that many working class people, particularly in the Midwest, are getting tired of hearing how great the economy is without seeing it "trickle down" to their wages in a meaningful way.

"Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring."

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/6468...-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Don't worry bud, I'm pretty sure that polls are fake news again.

 

[dormammu]

Don't worry bud, I'm pretty sure that polls are fake news again.

The polls are fake news, had Hillary winning in 2016<Lmaoo>

 

[Quinton Overeem]

Always check who the company behind the polls belongs to, then do research on them. That's (polls) basically how they put Macron in power in my country.

 

[Fawlty]

Good to see him back in the 30s.

 

[luckyshot]

The polls are fake news, had Hillary winning in 2016<Lmaoo>

The polls predict the popular vote. Hillary won the popular vote. By about how much the polls said she would.

Gerrymandering might say the GOP in the midterms, but the electoral college won't.

@Quinton Overeem
A good website to track American politics is fivethirtyeight. They do weighted averages of all public polls.

 

[Falsedawn]

I love how idiots can say polls are fake news because they were wrong once but *edgy internet conspiracy theorist* is right because he got one common sense prediction out of 1500 retarded ones right.

It's really a testament to how a lack of education can affect your mental development. I feel for them.

 

[Fawlty]

Always check who the company behind the polls belongs to, then do research on them. That's (polls) basically how they put Macron in power in my country.

Translation: "I'm ignorant, so you should be skeptical"

 

[Pessimystic]

LOL at polls.
We all saw how that went last time around.

 

[HomerThompson]

Translation: "I'm ignorant, so you should be skeptical"

This has become a very popular talking point.

 

[Quinton Overeem]

Translation: "I'm ignorant, so you should be skeptical"

What do you mean, It was admitted on live TV by pro-macrons and his PR team.

So, what do you mean?

This has become a very popular talking point.

Says the one pretending to be far-right.

 

[gassius_clay]

I guess non left-wingers should just stay home on election day. It's just hopeless at this point.

 

[kpt018]

LOL at polls.
We all saw how that went last time around.

Which time? 538 has been pretty accurate in special elections.

But instead of doing some thinking to understand what polling means please continue to focus on that time 538 had Trump at about 1/3 chance to win and he won. Also continue to misunderstand how to interpret statistical measures.

 

[HereticBD]

This all seems so eerily familiar to something that happened in before an election in the past, I just can't quite put my finger on when...

 

[Pessimystic]

Which time? 538 has been pretty accurate in special elections.

But instead of doing some thinking to understand what polling means please continue to focus on that time 538 had Trump at about 1/3 chance to win and he won. Also continue to misunderstand how to interpret statistical measures.

LOL at that "one time". The polls had Hillary winning at a 95% chance.
I'll continue to laugh at your desperate grasping at any straw the lapdog media throws you, thank you.
I'll laugh even harder when Trump takes 2020.

 

[kpt018]

LOL at that "one time". The polls had Hillary winning at a 95% chance.
I'll continue to laugh at your desperate grasping at any straw the lapdog media throws you, thank you.
I'll laugh even harder when Trump takes 2020.

The polls Lucky is referring to had Trump at about 35%. But again, please continue to ignore polls that show results you don't like because you found some bad ones "that one time".

 

[luckyshot]

LOL at that "one time". The polls had Hillary winning at a 95% chance.
I'll continue to laugh at your desperate grasping at any straw the lapdog media throws you, thank you.
I'll laugh even harder when Trump takes 2020.

You are just showing you have no idea what a poll is.

A poll is a prediction of a popular vote. Period.

No poll said Hillary was going to win 95% of the popular vote.

The pundits Lucky is referring to had Trump at about 35%. But again, please continue to ignore polls that show results you don't like because you found some bad ones "that one time".

Just to be technical. A poll =/= a pundit.

 

[AlexDB9]

Welp I look forward to another calm and victorious election night for the D.....it’s in the bag....

 

[Trotsky]

LOL at polls.
We all saw how that went last time around.

The most accurate popular polling outcome in recorded history?

Yeah, keep using that.

 

[kpt018]

This all seems so eerily familiar to something that happened in before an election in the past, I just can't quite put my finger on when...

I think you're too smart to make the same error as the knuckleheads in the WR. Why do you stoop so low?

We could use some smarter right wingers that you can actually have a dialogue without insulting people around here. Hopefully you'll come around one day.