The Ponies Thread (part 2)
- Thread starter Sharkey
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It says I have 1 life left at the moment Shark. So they haven't quite put me out of my misery yet, haha.
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Hurry then. Get something in quick for tomorrow before they can put an end to you. Haha. Ya never know.
Remington Park for Tues, Dec 11th;
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Race 4 (8.3f-Dirt);
#8 EP - 71.4, LP - 61.7, SP - 74.9, TT - 51.7, MP - 74.1, EL - 69.9, DP - 76.1, ELD - 73.9, SF - 76.6, BT - 93.5, AC - 80.9, PP - 151.7, NF - 47.4, AVG - 77.2
#1 EP - 64.7, LP - 65.5, SP - 73.9, TT - 49.6, MP - 72.5, EL - 69.6, DP - 78.0, ELD - 62.4, SF - 72.2, BT - 81.9, AC - 94.5, PP - 152.1, NF - 39.9, AVG - 75.1
#4 EP - 69.8, LP - 60.5, SP - 73.3, TT - 43.5, MP - 70.2, EL - 70.7, DP - 74.6, ELD - 73.9, SF - 77.9, BT - 94.0, AC - 74.5, PP - 146.2, NF - 46.3, AVG - 75.0
#7 EP - 71.8, LP - 55.4, SP - 71.1, TT - 51.0, MP - 70.2, EL - 66.6, DP - 70.3, ELD - 75.8, SF - 78.3, BT - 95.9, AC - 69.3, PP - 141.9, NF - 42.2, AVG - 73.8
#5 EP - 67.5, LP - 54.2, SP - 68.1, TT - 47.6, MP - 66.3, EL - 64.8, DP - 68.0, ELD - 78.6, SF - 75.7, BT - 97.2, AC - 70.4, PP - 135.7, NF - 35.3, AVG - 71.5
#9 EP - 61.2, LP - 60.5, SP - 68.9, TT - 46.2, MP - 66.7, EL - 65.9, DP - 72.4, ELD - 65.2, SF - 79.6, BT - 87.2, AC - 88.2, PP - 140.5, NF - 24.4, AVG - 71.3
#2 EP - 76.8, LP - 48.5, SP - 69.3, TT - 49.0, MP - 67.9, EL - 65.5, DP - 65.1, ELD - 62.0, SF - 85.7, BT - 86.9, AC - 49.4, PP - 134.3, NF - 48.1, AVG - 69.9
#6 EP - 61.6, LP - 55.4, SP - 66.0, TT - 49.6, MP - 64.7, EL - 62.2, DP - 67.7, ELD - 71.9, SF - 69.2, BT - 88.9, AC - 81.9, PP - 133.8, NF - 20.6, AVG - 68.7
#10 EP - 60.1, LP - 52.3, SP - 63.2, TT - 46.9, MP - 61.2, EL - 60.3, DP - 64.4, ELD - 74.3, SF - 63.9, BT - 88.9, AC - 76.7, PP - 126.9, NF - 36.1, AVG - 67.3
#3 EP - 71.0, LP - 44.7, SP - 64.0, TT - 45.6, MP - 61.6, EL - 61.4, DP - 60.0, ELD - 63.2, SF - 79.2, BT - 85.3, AC - 48.3, PP - 122.9, NF - 48.0, AVG - 65.8
==========
Race 5 (8f-Dirt);
#2 EP - 76.8, LP - 61.7, SP - 77.6, TT - 54.4, MP - 77.6, EL - 71.8, DP - 77.5, ELD - 78.6, SF - 85.7, BT - 101.2, AC - 75.6, PP - 156.7, NF - 40.7, AVG - 79.7
#4 EP - 78.0, LP - 61.7, SP - 78.2, TT - 48.3, MP - 76.4, EL - 74.0, DP - 77.8, ELD - 77.4, SF - 81.3, BT - 98.4, AC - 69.3, PP - 155.8, NF - 31.7, AVG - 77.6
#9 EP - 65.1, LP - 61.7, SP - 71.7, TT - 50.3, MP - 70.6, EL - 67.3, DP - 74.6, ELD - 67.5, SF - 94.0, BT - 94.9, AC - 88.2, PP - 146.6, NF - 34.0, AVG - 75.9
#6 EP - 65.5, LP - 61.7, SP - 71.9, TT - 51.0, MP - 71.0, EL - 67.3, DP - 74.7, ELD - 67.9, SF - 81.8, BT - 90.4, AC - 88.2, PP - 147.1, NF - 42.1, AVG - 75.4
#7 EP - 76.4, LP - 57.3, SP - 74.7, TT - 51.0, MP - 73.7, EL - 69.9, DP - 73.3, ELD - 73.5, SF - 81.3, BT - 95.0, AC - 66.2, PP - 148.5, NF - 39.9, AVG - 75.4
#8 EP - 68.3, LP - 59.2, SP - 71.7, TT - 46.2, MP - 69.4, EL - 68.5, DP - 73.0, ELD - 73.9, SF - 86.1, BT - 97.2, AC - 76.7, PP - 143.8, NF - 40.6, AVG - 75.0
#5 EP - 75.3, LP - 51.0, SP - 70.1, TT - 50.3, MP - 69.0, EL - 65.9, DP - 67.1, ELD - 66.8, SF - 84.0, BT - 90.3, AC - 56.7, PP - 137.4, NF - 45.0, AVG - 71.4
#1 EP - 78.4, LP - 46.0, SP - 68.5, TT - 51.7, MP - 67.9, EL - 64.0, DP - 63.1, ELD - 57.3, SF - 87.4, BT - 83.5, AC - 45.1, PP - 132.3, NF - 45.0, AVG - 68.5
#10 EP - 80.0, LP - 45.4, SP - 68.9, TT - 49.0, MP - 67.5, EL - 65.1, DP - 62.9, ELD - 54.9, SF - 89.2, BT - 82.1, AC - 39.9, PP - 131.7, NF - 47.7, AVG - 68.0
#3 EP - 86.6, LP - 42.8, SP - 70.7, TT - 49.6, MP - 69.4, EL - 66.6, DP - 62.2, ELD - 45.0, SF - 96.6, BT - 76.5, AC - 27.3, PP - 132.9, NF - 37.8, AVG - 66.5
==========
Race 7 (6f-Dirt);
#7 EP - 70.2, LP - 59.2, SP - 72.7, TT - 46.9, MP - 70.6, EL - 69.2, DP - 73.5, ELD - 75.8, SF - 78.3, BT - 95.9, AC - 74.5, PP - 145.5, NF - 42.9, AVG - 75.0
#10 EP - 69.4, LP - 55.4, SP - 69.9, TT - 46.9, MP - 67.9, EL - 66.6, DP - 69.7, ELD - 78.2, SF - 77.4, BT - 97.6, AC - 69.3, PP - 139.0, NF - 47.4, AVG - 73.4
#2 EP - 80.0, LP - 55.4, SP - 75.2, TT - 46.2, MP - 72.9, EL - 71.8, DP - 72.4, ELD - 67.5, SF - 77.0, BT - 88.2, AC - 54.6, PP - 146.8, NF - 39.4, AVG - 72.9
#11 EP - 71.0, LP - 56.1, SP - 71.1, TT - 45.6, MP - 68.6, EL - 68.1, DP - 70.7, ELD - 77.4, SF - 76.1, BT - 96.4, AC - 67.2, PP - 140.7, NF - 38.4, AVG - 72.9
#12 EP - 74.5, LP - 56.7, SP - 73.3, TT - 49.0, MP - 71.8, EL - 69.2, DP - 72.2, ELD - 74.7, SF - 74.4, BT - 93.3, AC - 66.2, PP - 145.4, NF - 21.7, AVG - 72.5
#4 EP - 72.9, LP - 51.0, SP - 68.9, TT - 46.2, MP - 66.7, EL - 65.9, DP - 66.5, ELD - 69.1, SF - 81.3, BT - 91.3, AC - 56.7, PP - 134.5, NF - 40.7, AVG - 70.1
#5 EP - 60.8, LP - 52.3, SP - 63.6, TT - 52.4, MP - 63.2, EL - 59.2, DP - 64.6, ELD - 75.0, SF - 67.9, BT - 91.1, AC - 79.8, PP - 129.0, NF - 50.3, AVG - 69.9
#6 EP - 66.3, LP - 55.4, SP - 68.3, TT - 46.9, MP - 66.3, EL - 65.1, DP - 68.9, ELD - 76.6, SF - 70.9, BT - 93.7, AC - 73.5, PP - 136.6, NF - 15.3, AVG - 69.5
#9 EP - 70.2, LP - 51.0, SP - 67.5, TT - 45.6, MP - 65.1, EL - 64.8, DP - 65.8, ELD - 71.9, SF - 78.3, BT - 92.5, AC - 59.9, PP - 132.2, NF - 37.1, AVG - 69.4
#1 EP - 71.8, LP - 50.4, SP - 67.9, TT - 45.6, MP - 65.5, EL - 65.1, DP - 65.6, ELD - 69.5, SF - 81.3, BT - 91.6, AC - 56.7, PP - 132.4, NF - 37.2, AVG - 69.3
#8 EP - 76.4, LP - 44.7, SP - 66.8, TT - 51.0, MP - 65.9, EL - 62.5, DP - 61.4, ELD - 57.7, SF - 90.5, BT - 85.0, AC - 45.1, PP - 128.6, NF - 19.6, AVG - 65.8
#3 EP - 67.9, LP - 44.7, SP - 62.4, TT - 42.8, MP - 59.3, EL - 60.7, DP - 59.3, ELD - 66.4, SF - 75.7, BT - 86.7, AC - 50.4, PP - 119.7, NF - 29.8, AVG - 63.5
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I'm "in the barn" bud
Well, that sucks, T. So close to the end too. Damn.
Did you have fun at least? If so, that makes one of us. Haha. Nah. It's been frustrating for me, but I wouldn't be surprised if I entered again next year now that I know what it's all about. Thanks a bunch for playing along the whole time, though. That's pretty cool. You had a lot of bad days along the way obviously. But you also had a bunch of good days as well where you were right up near or even at the top of the daily leaderboard. So great job with that, and for "surviving" as long as you did.
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Definitely had a good time playing along Shark. Not sure I'd feel that way if I was the one doing all the hard work though, haha. But I'd do it again for sure.
I do wonder, if we bet every race using the same amounts that they give you to play with in the contest, how far up or down we'd be at this point.
And thanks for suggesting it and sharing all the numbers with us bud.
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That's pretty easy to figure out, T. You made it to the end of 54 days, with three races per day and $6 per race. But I think we had one day where they gave us 6 races, so it would basically be 55 x $18 = $990 risked. You have what you "won" compared to that. But we would never bet the way the contest forces us to, though. At least I would hope not. Going even amounts across the board is outright dumb. Show bets themselves for any amount are usually pretty dumb unless you landed on a big price and have at least one or two vulnerable favourites in the race.
Cheers T. It was only the first month of the contest when I was doing them manually that doing the races was a bit of a pain. A lot of that had to do with me not having much time to cap any others races, and not having the interest in betting the Remington races I did do. That's the degenerate in me speaking I'll have you know. Haha. But once my son made this program for me it was no problem at all. I could do the contest races right quick, and also had plenty of time left over to cap other races if I chose to.
Maybe we can do it again next year if you're interested. We'll see. I'll have this new system of mine locked in by that point. Hopefully. Plus we'll no longer be wearing our rookie stripes now that we understand what the tournament is about. This year it's basically been trial and error for us. A newly developed system that was basically tested (and tweaked) using the contest, and a contest format that we really didn't have much of a clue about when we first started. Plus we learned about how effective things like ELD and SF can be along the way even if those two categories have hated me as of late. "We win or we learn" right T?
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I'll keep an eye out for any other free handicapping contests as well. There's not very many out there, but there are some, albeit there not nearly as long and don't offer the prize money that Remington did. But they're free, so why not.
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Easy for you maybe! Haha, just kidding. I didn't really think about it but that makes perfect sense. So I would have ended up down a couple hundred bucks. Good to know.
Sounds good Shark, thanks again.
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Ah, you wouldn't have bet that way though, T. Nor would you have picked the same horses a lot of the times due to the fact that we had to get our picks in so early and were forced to trust a morning line maker without much competence. Plus a good chunk of these races were simply unplayable if just looking at it from a straight bets point of view yet we were forced to play them anyways. It's not anything close to a true handicapping contest really. Even then you still did better than about 70% of the people who originally entered the contest.
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Your 80% ROI is also better than the vast majority of public handicappers that are hired by each track. e.g. Andy Serling, who's an extremely sharp capper, had less than a 70% ROI this year at Saratoga when it came to his picks that he was forced to make in advance. Most are like that. Mind you, they also influence the odds with their picks and as such the return they get when picking a winner is lessened somewhat, so the comparison isn't exactly fair. But still. All the "experts" suck when it comes to making money for themselves and others who follow their picks, which is why I always stress finding a unique way to handicap the horses. Even those with sophisticated computer systems that analyze as many variables as they can (sometimes hundreds) say they only break even when it comes to their actual computer generated bets, and instead rely on rebates to turn a small profit.
This game is extremely tough and challenging just because of the chaotic nature of how most races are ran, and plus we're dealing with animals that for the most part have a communication disconnect from those that look after them. You're going to lose your bets way more often than you win your bets. Even the sharpest cappers out there do so. But the challenging nature of it is what I find so appealing. Also, the payoffs can be pretty fucking outstanding those times you are really right, and that's a pretty great feeling when you know you're only one of a few people out there which forecasted a race playing out a certain way.
This game is extremely tough and challenging just because of the chaotic nature of how most races are ran, and plus we're dealing with animals that for the most part have a communication disconnect from those that look after them. You're going to lose your bets way more often than you win your bets. Even the sharpest cappers out there do so. But the challenging nature of it is what I find so appealing. Also, the payoffs can be pretty fucking outstanding those times you are really right, and that's a pretty great feeling when you know you're only one of a few people out there which forecasted a race playing out a certain way.
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Santa Anita has seemingly gone full retard in the last week or so. First by firing their well liked track announcer. Now they're introducing a ridiculous idea called "Horse Racing Roulette';
"Following are the basic components and rules comprising Horse Racing Roulette at Santa Anita:
–Two dollar minimum win wager with customary industry-low 15.43 percent takeout
–Horses (minimum six-horse field) will be placed into one of three groups, Red, Black or Green.
–In most cases, the morning line favorite will be part of the Red Group.
–The Green Group will be comprised mainly of longshots.
–The three Groups, in most cases, will not have an equal number of horses.
–Whichever Group contains the race winner, wins that “game” of Horse Racing Roulette.
–In the event that ALL betting interest members of any group are scratched or declared non-starters, betting on the Group Bet pool will be stopped immediately and all Roulette wagers made on this particular race will be refunded.
–In the event of a dead heat for first between two or more divergent Group members, the Group Bet pool will be distributed as a profit split (place pool) or, if there is a triple dead heat with as many Group interests, the pool will also be distributed as a profit split (show pool)."
http://www.santaanita.com/press-rel...ening-day-wednesday-december-26/#.XBDQhFIxSUl
"Following are the basic components and rules comprising Horse Racing Roulette at Santa Anita:
–Two dollar minimum win wager with customary industry-low 15.43 percent takeout
–Horses (minimum six-horse field) will be placed into one of three groups, Red, Black or Green.
–In most cases, the morning line favorite will be part of the Red Group.
–The Green Group will be comprised mainly of longshots.
–The three Groups, in most cases, will not have an equal number of horses.
–Whichever Group contains the race winner, wins that “game” of Horse Racing Roulette.
–In the event that ALL betting interest members of any group are scratched or declared non-starters, betting on the Group Bet pool will be stopped immediately and all Roulette wagers made on this particular race will be refunded.
–In the event of a dead heat for first between two or more divergent Group members, the Group Bet pool will be distributed as a profit split (place pool) or, if there is a triple dead heat with as many Group interests, the pool will also be distributed as a profit split (show pool)."
http://www.santaanita.com/press-rel...ening-day-wednesday-december-26/#.XBDQhFIxSUl
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Got to laugh at that "industry-low 15.43 takeout" comment (which is a lie anyways, as there are tracks in Canada like Woodbine and Hastings which are at 15% or lower when it comes to straight bets) when this dumb bet is very obviously going to be producing an industry-high breakage impact as a way of robbing the stupid fucks who play those bets just because most every race is going to pay out at extremely low odds. Your 4/5 expected payout with this bet will pay at 3/5 more often than not because of the breakage. 3/5 will pay at 2/5. Etc., etc.
It's almost as dumb as Gulfstream offering up that $5 million payout on Pegasus day for what in reality is closer to a billion to one shot. And what do you know. Both tracks are owned by the same clueless turds (Stronach) who have absolutely zero idea of what appeals to horse players. None. Zilch. They're just trying to feast on the gullible beginners/casuals they can rope in I guess, but those people will learn how dumb these types of bets are quickly enough.
Stronach owns 5 or 6 tracks around the US I do believe. Included in the tracks they own are Pimlico, Gulfstream, and Santa Anita, which just happen to be three of the most unappealing tracks to bet on. For me anyways. But maybe there are people out there who love cashing those endless 3/5 shots with Pletcher horses at Gulfstream, or 2/5 shots with Baffert at Santa Anita. They can have them.
It's almost as dumb as Gulfstream offering up that $5 million payout on Pegasus day for what in reality is closer to a billion to one shot. And what do you know. Both tracks are owned by the same clueless turds (Stronach) who have absolutely zero idea of what appeals to horse players. None. Zilch. They're just trying to feast on the gullible beginners/casuals they can rope in I guess, but those people will learn how dumb these types of bets are quickly enough.
Stronach owns 5 or 6 tracks around the US I do believe. Included in the tracks they own are Pimlico, Gulfstream, and Santa Anita, which just happen to be three of the most unappealing tracks to bet on. For me anyways. But maybe there are people out there who love cashing those endless 3/5 shots with Pletcher horses at Gulfstream, or 2/5 shots with Baffert at Santa Anita. They can have them.
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I shit on Gulfstream a lot, but I actually found a playable race there for tomorrow's card for the first time in ages. Which I'll lose of course because I'm a loser and do what losers do. We lose.
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Race 1 at Gulfstream (9:35);
#1 EP - 73.2, LP - 52.9, SP - 70.2, TT - 53.7, MP - 70.1, EL - 65.0, DP - 72.2, ELD - 71.3, SF - 77.9, BT - 91.5, AC - 44.3, PP - 146.8, NF - 43.2, AVG - 71.7
#2 EP - 65.7, LP - 51.5, SP - 65.6, TT - 56.7, MP - 66.4, EL - 59.9, DP - 66.0, ELD - 77.1, SF - 76.1, BT - 92.7, AC - 54.4, PP - 133.0, NF - 37.2, AVG - 69.4
#3 EP - 68.5, LP - 52.5, SP - 67.6, TT - 55.4, MP - 68.0, EL - 62.2, DP - 68.5, ELD - 75.5, SF - 80.0, BT - 95.1, AC - 51.2, PP - 138.3, NF - 43.5, AVG - 71.3
#4 EP - 62.9, LP - 47.8, SP - 61.8, TT - 54.4, MP - 62.0, EL - 57.0, DP - 62.8, ELD - 75.1, SF - 63.5, BT - 82.0, AC - 50.0, PP - 127.0, NF - 49.0, AVG - 65.8
#5 EP - 66.1, LP - 47.1, SP - 63.0, TT - 52.0, MP - 62.5, EL - 58.8, DP - 65.0, ELD - 71.2, SF - 73.5, BT - 88.1, AC - 42.8, PP - 132.3, NF - 26.6, AVG - 65.3
#6 EP - 72.4, LP - 52.9, SP - 69.8, TT - 51.8, MP - 69.2, EL - 65.2, DP - 71.6, ELD - 72.0, SF - 80.5, BT - 93.9, AC - 43.9, PP - 145.4, NF - 50.8, AVG - 72.3
#7 EP - 61.1, LP - 45.7, SP - 59.6, TT - 55.8, MP - 60.2, EL - 54.5, DP - 60.7, ELD - 74.5, SF - 70.5, BT - 87.1, AC - 50.2, PP - 123.0, NF - 42.3, AVG - 65.0
#8 EP - 68.7, LP - 52.8, SP - 67.9, TT - 52.2, MP - 67.4, EL - 63.3, DP - 68.7, ELD - 75.6, SF - 73.1, BT - 89.7, AC - 48.9, PP - 138.8, NF - 41.3, AVG - 69.9
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Race 1 at Gulfstream (9:35);
#1 EP - 73.2, LP - 52.9, SP - 70.2, TT - 53.7, MP - 70.1, EL - 65.0, DP - 72.2, ELD - 71.3, SF - 77.9, BT - 91.5, AC - 44.3, PP - 146.8, NF - 43.2, AVG - 71.7
#2 EP - 65.7, LP - 51.5, SP - 65.6, TT - 56.7, MP - 66.4, EL - 59.9, DP - 66.0, ELD - 77.1, SF - 76.1, BT - 92.7, AC - 54.4, PP - 133.0, NF - 37.2, AVG - 69.4
#3 EP - 68.5, LP - 52.5, SP - 67.6, TT - 55.4, MP - 68.0, EL - 62.2, DP - 68.5, ELD - 75.5, SF - 80.0, BT - 95.1, AC - 51.2, PP - 138.3, NF - 43.5, AVG - 71.3
#4 EP - 62.9, LP - 47.8, SP - 61.8, TT - 54.4, MP - 62.0, EL - 57.0, DP - 62.8, ELD - 75.1, SF - 63.5, BT - 82.0, AC - 50.0, PP - 127.0, NF - 49.0, AVG - 65.8
#5 EP - 66.1, LP - 47.1, SP - 63.0, TT - 52.0, MP - 62.5, EL - 58.8, DP - 65.0, ELD - 71.2, SF - 73.5, BT - 88.1, AC - 42.8, PP - 132.3, NF - 26.6, AVG - 65.3
#6 EP - 72.4, LP - 52.9, SP - 69.8, TT - 51.8, MP - 69.2, EL - 65.2, DP - 71.6, ELD - 72.0, SF - 80.5, BT - 93.9, AC - 43.9, PP - 145.4, NF - 50.8, AVG - 72.3
#7 EP - 61.1, LP - 45.7, SP - 59.6, TT - 55.8, MP - 60.2, EL - 54.5, DP - 60.7, ELD - 74.5, SF - 70.5, BT - 87.1, AC - 50.2, PP - 123.0, NF - 42.3, AVG - 65.0
#8 EP - 68.7, LP - 52.8, SP - 67.9, TT - 52.2, MP - 67.4, EL - 63.3, DP - 68.7, ELD - 75.6, SF - 73.1, BT - 89.7, AC - 48.9, PP - 138.8, NF - 41.3, AVG - 69.9
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Yep. If my math is correct (it is), that 15.43% takeout is going to pay out more like a 19.5% takeout on average just because of how much the breakage is going to have an impact. The lower the odds the more impactful breakage is obviously, and this dumb "roulette" wager being introduced will see the biggest impact when it comes to payouts as a result. But hey, have at it.
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This sports pisses me off and I complain a lot. But what did I spend the last few hours doing tonight? Yep, that was me "capping" 25-30 races that are going on tomorrow. Haha. The bastards. Not that there's much capping that goes into what I do nowadays mind you.
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Yep, I lost this one playing a #1, #3, #6 exacta box. Came back #5, #6, #1, #3.
Race 2 at Mahoning Valley - #4 over #1 over #2, #3, #5, #6 in some $1 tris.
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I capped 7 races so far today and have bet two of them. The rest ended up being unplayable. Race 2 at Mahoning Valley was also unplayable too (came back #4, #1, #5 I think), but I bet it anyways albeit by a forcing it.
