The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Race 8 at Tampa - #2, #9 exacta box for $5 (the ELD and SF horses)
 
Sharkey said:
Race 8 at Tampa - #2, #9 exacta box for $5 (the ELD and SF horses)
Click to expand...

That hurt. Pain lessened somewhat as I played the #2 to win as the better odds between the two (9/2). But I had a nice exacta payout in the bag until the very last couple of strides when the #3 got by the #9 for 2nd. The heavy favourite was off the board too.
 
Out of 9 races so far today that I did in advance the SF horse has won 3 of them outright and the ELD horse has won 2 of them outright, and finished 2nd to the SF in two other races. None were great prices, though, so I only played a couple. Race 6 at Tampa also say a dead heat between the SF and ELD horses, so +1 for each on the win end;

==========

Race 6 at Tampa Bay (11:55);

#1 EP - 60.1, LP - 57.0, SP - 66.1, TT - 51.0, MP - 65.3, EL - 61.9, DP - 68.8, ELD - 68.4, SF - 62.2, BT - 83.2, AC - 66.6, PP - 135.4, NF - 36.9, AVG - 67.9
#2 EP - 51.6, LP - 49.9, SP - 57.4, TT - 50.0, MP - 56.4, EL - 54.0, DP - 60.0, ELD - 68.7, SF - 53.1, BT - 79.8, AC - 65.5, PP - 117.5, NF - 23.2, AVG - 60.5
#3 EP - 64.2, LP - 43.5, SP - 59.8, TT - 50.0, MP - 58.7, EL - 56.2, DP - 57.1, ELD - 68.5, SF - 72.6, BT - 87.3, AC - 37.8, PP - 117.0, NF - 40.5, AVG - 62.6
#4 EP - 66.8, LP - 43.6, SP - 61.1, TT - 46.9, MP - 59.2, EL - 58.4, DP - 57.9, ELD - 66.0, SF - 70.5, BT - 84.4, AC - 32.1, PP - 118.3, NF - 17.6, AVG - 60.2
#5 EP - 64.4, LP - 44.9, SP - 60.7, TT - 51.4, MP - 60.1, EL - 56.8, DP - 58.5, ELD - 70.1, SF - 71.3, BT - 88.2, AC - 41.0, PP - 119.7, NF - 40.0, AVG - 63.6
#6 EP - 57.7, LP - 51.5, SP - 61.5, TT - 51.8, MP - 61.0, EL - 57.4, DP - 63.1, ELD - 72.8, SF - 68.7, BT - 89.6, AC - 61.3, PP - 125.3, NF - 27.6, AVG - 65.3
#7 EP - 60.1, LP - 50.3, SP - 61.9, TT - 49.1, MP - 60.6, EL - 58.5, DP - 62.5, ELD - 76.8, SF - 58.7, BT - 89.0, AC - 54.0, PP - 124.3, NF - 43.6, AVG - 65.3

The #3 and #7 dead heated, but at 7/5 and 2/1 odds, so way too low to play, and the exacta only returned just over 2/1 both ways.

==========
 
I'm keeping it simple for the rest of the races I did for today and just playing the SF horse to win each of these races for $5 apiece (which are already made). A lot of these races fall right on top of each other, and as such, my mind would probably explode if trying to tote board watch. None of these are the morning line favourite, although a couple/few may go off as such. I don't care. There's more than a few that are going to go off at big odds as well and don't look like complete donkeys on my numbers even though they'll probably run like it.

==========

Race 1 at Delta Downs (3:25) - #9
Race 1 at Woodbine (3:45) - #3
Race 2 at Woodbine (4:16) - #3
Race 4 at Penn National (4:28) - #5
Race 2 at Charles Town (4:29) - #1
Race 3 at Woodbine (4:46) - #1
Race 5 at Penn National (4:58) - #5
Race 4 at Woodbine (5:16) - #5
Race 6 at Penn National (5:28) - #9
Race 6 at Delta Downs (5:52) - #8
Race 6 at Charles Town (6:18) - #6
Race 6 at Woodbine (6:19) - #1
Race 7 at Delta Downs (6:22) - #3
Race 8 at Penn National (6:28) - #4
Race 7 at Charles Town (6:47) - #2
Race 8 at Delta Downs (6:52) - #7
Race 9 at Penn National (6:58) - #3
Race 8 at Charles Town (7:15) - #4

==========

I always get myself in trouble when I try to mass bet races like this, but so be it. I have the house to myself for the rest of the day, so I'm going to have an early dinner, smoke a joint, and laugh as I watch some more of my money burn away. Good times.
 
"Race 1 at Delta Downs (3:25) - #9"

That was fun. The horse went off at 57/1, and gave me a lot of hope for the first 95% of the race before fading back in the last half furlong.
 
2 for 7 so far with these SF horses this evening. Both paid out at 4/1, and both came at crappy ass Penn National of all places.
 
3 for 8 now, although that one only pays out at 5/2. I'll still take it.

All three of my winners this evening have been the #5 horse. My wife would be proud as she likes to bet that number the few times she does bet.
 
Now I only need one horse at 3/1 or better over the last 10 races to turn a profit with this group of SF horses. And that would be really dumb if I did.
 
Race 7 at Turfway Park;

#7 / #1, #9, #10, #11 / #1, #9, #10, #11
#11 / #7 / #1, #9, #10
#11 / #1, #9, #10 / #7

In $2 exactas and $1 tris. Also throwing $6 to win on the #11 horse as the SF in the race (the #7 is the ELD) to make the total risk for it an even $40.
 
Played this hi-5 at Woodbine;

11, 15 / 4, 11, 15 / 4, 9, 11, 15 / 3, 4, 9, 11, 13, 15 / 3, 4, 9, 11, 13, 15

Race just started.
 
Yeah, wasn't close. Cost less than $10 to play, though. The #4 won as the favourite. My old buddy I'll Take the Cake ran 2nd at 45/1, and I didn't use her. #4, #10, #1, #9, #3 was the hi-5 order I believe.
 
Just hit everything I bet (and was my contest pick) in the 10th race at Remington;

==========

Race 10 (8f-Dirt);

#2 EP - 73.5, LP - 59.2, SP - 74.4, TT - 53.4, MP - 74.1, EL - 69.0, DP - 74.3, ELD - 78.8, SF - 76.1, BT - 97.6, AC - 53.3, PP - 149.9, NF - 54.5, AVG - 76.0
#6 EP - 69.8, LP - 56.6, SP - 70.8, TT - 51.7, MP - 70.1, EL - 66.2, DP - 70.9, ELD - 78.8, SF - 78.3, BT - 98.4, AC - 52.9, PP - 142.4, NF - 58.0, AVG - 74.2
#5 EP - 66.3, LP - 60.5, SP - 71.5, TT - 49.6, MP - 70.2, EL - 67.3, DP - 73.7, ELD - 70.3, SF - 84.4, BT - 93.5, AC - 57.8, PP - 145.3, NF - 44.1, AVG - 73.4
#1 EP - 68.0, LP - 54.7, SP - 68.7, TT - 52.8, MP - 68.4, EL - 63.9, DP - 68.6, ELD - 78.7, SF - 90.5, BT - 103.1, AC - 53.0, PP - 138.4, NF - 44.4, AVG - 73.3
#9 EP - 71.0, LP - 52.9, SP - 69.1, TT - 51.5, MP - 68.4, EL - 64.6, DP - 67.7, ELD - 73.5, SF - 78.7, BT - 94.0, AC - 49.0, PP - 137.5, NF - 48.7, AVG - 71.3
#4 EP - 62.9, LP - 55.0, SP - 66.3, TT - 49.4, MP - 65.1, EL - 62.6, DP - 67.7, ELD - 73.7, SF - 77.9, BT - 93.9, AC - 55.3, PP - 134.0, NF - 54.5, AVG - 70.6
#7 EP - 66.7, LP - 52.3, SP - 66.6, TT - 52.0, MP - 66.0, EL - 62.1, DP - 66.1, ELD - 77.0, SF - 76.6, BT - 96.2, AC - 51.6, PP - 133.4, NF - 44.7, AVG - 70.1
#8 EP - 70.6, LP - 50.1, SP - 67.2, TT - 52.2, MP - 66.7, EL - 62.6, DP - 65.0, ELD - 70.3, SF - 80.0, BT - 91.8, AC - 47.3, PP - 132.9, NF - 41.8, AVG - 69.1
#3 EP - 60.1, LP - 54.5, SP - 64.6, TT - 46.2, MP - 62.4, EL - 61.8, DP - 66.5, ELD - 71.5, SF - 67.9, BT - 88.1, AC - 55.7, PP - 130.1, NF - 56.8, AVG - 68.2

==========

I keyed the #2 on top of the next three for a 20/1 exacta and a 79/1 trifecta, and played it to win outright. The race came back #2, #5, #1 with the #2 paying out at just over 9/2.
 
==========

Race 11 at Remington (8f-Dirt);

#10 EP - 79.2, LP - 62.2, SP - 79.1, TT - 55.8, MP - 79.5, EL - 72.8, DP - 78.6, ELD - 76.9, SF - 97.9, BT - 104.4, AC - 52.9, PP - 159.6, NF - 53.9, AVG - 81.0 (4/1)
#3 EP - 71.7, LP - 69.0, SP - 79.6, TT - 51.5, MP - 78.7, EL - 74.4, DP - 83.1, ELD - 65.1, SF - 96.6, BT - 93.7, AC - 62.0, PP - 163.5, NF - 55.7, AVG - 80.4 (5/1)
#8 EP - 78.0, LP - 62.6, SP - 78.7, TT - 54.9, MP - 78.9, EL - 72.7, DP - 78.6, ELD - 78.4, SF - 83.1, BT - 100.0, AC - 53.7, PP - 159.0, NF - 51.0, AVG - 79.2 (7/1)
#4 EP - 71.1, LP - 66.3, SP - 77.6, TT - 52.8, MP - 77.1, EL - 72.2, DP - 80.4, ELD - 67.8, SF - 90.9, BT - 93.9, AC - 60.6, PP - 159.1, NF - 58.0, AVG - 79.1 (7/1)
#1 EP - 78.0, LP - 60.2, SP - 77.2, TT - 55.8, MP - 77.6, EL - 71.0, DP - 76.3, ELD - 75.4, SF - 82.7, BT - 97.2, AC - 52.0, PP - 155.5, NF - 53.9, AVG - 77.9 (9/1)
#11 EP - 71.4, LP - 59.7, SP - 73.6, TT - 51.3, MP - 72.8, EL - 68.9, DP - 74.3, ELD - 76.4, SF - 91.8, BT - 101.7, AC - 54.3, PP - 148.5, NF - 56.8, AVG - 77.0 (12/1)
#7 EP - 69.8, LP - 58.5, SP - 72.0, TT - 51.7, MP - 71.3, EL - 67.3, DP - 72.7, ELD - 76.4, SF - 89.6, BT - 100.8, AC - 54.5, PP - 145.4, NF - 53.4, AVG - 75.7 (16/1)
#9 EP - 76.8, LP - 56.6, SP - 74.3, TT - 54.9, MP - 74.5, EL - 68.6, DP - 72.6, ELD - 72.2, SF - 84.0, BT - 95.0, AC - 49.5, PP - 148.6, NF - 56.8, AVG - 75.7 (16/1)
#5 EP - 73.6, LP - 53.4, SP - 70.8, TT - 51.8, MP - 70.1, EL - 66.1, DP - 68.9, ELD - 71.4, SF - 88.7, BT - 96.2, AC - 47.8, PP - 140.4, NF - 47.6, AVG - 72.8 (33/1)
#2 EP - 70.4, LP - 55.7, SP - 70.5, TT - 51.5, MP - 69.8, EL - 65.9, DP - 70.2, ELD - 77.6, SF - 65.7, BT - 92.4, AC - 51.8, PP - 141.4, NF - 52.2, AVG - 71.9 (41/1)
#6 EP - 68.0, LP - 51.9, SP - 67.0, TT - 51.9, MP - 66.4, EL - 62.5, DP - 66.0, ELD - 75.2, SF - 63.9, BT - 89.8, AC - 50.3, PP - 133.7, NF - 42.9, AVG - 68.4 (96/1)

==========

Win bets on both the #3 and #4 at odds, a #3, #4, #8, #10 trifecta box, and then some exactas structured with the #8, #10 over #3, #4, and then reversed #3, #4 over #8, #10 since I'm grouping the horses who shouldn't be in direct conflict of each other.
 
#5, #8, #10, #6, #3 at the line. I'll get paid nothing, so I'm taking the moral victory at least in identifying that the way overhyped #1 Epic Dreamer was an absolutely terrible bet at anything even remotely close to the 6/5 odds he went off at. What did he finish 8th or something?

"Epic Dreamer is a lock, blah, blah, blah", "Epic Dreamer is going to crush this field, blah, blah, blah", "Epic Dreamer is worth a big bet no matter the odds, blah, blah, blah". etc., etc.

Sorry. I have to take my victories where I can find them lately.
 
@Sharkey ends the dumb contest with a win at least (also bet) with a horse that paid just over 6/1, and two winners in the last three races (the other was 9/2). This race came back #11, #8, #10, #7, which would have been very gettable super had I played it (paid about 650/1). The trifecta was in order if I had played it that way too. But this also looked like a clutter spread race to me based on many of them being lumped together, so I just played the straight win bet on the top horse at good odds.

==========

Race 12 (8.3f-Dirt);

#11 EP - 79.3, LP - 68.9, SP - 83.4, TT - 56.1, MP - 83.8, EL - 76.7, DP - 84.9, ELD - 72.9, SF - 96.1, BT - 100.3, AC - 58.5, PP - 170.4, NF - 55.7, AVG - 83.6
#8 EP - 83.0, LP - 65.2, SP - 82.9, TT - 54.1, MP - 82.7, EL - 76.8, DP - 82.3, ELD - 76.7, SF - 99.2, BT - 104.8, AC - 52.2, PP - 166.7, NF - 49.3, AVG - 82.8
#10 EP - 82.2, LP - 63.3, SP - 81.3, TT - 55.4, MP - 81.5, EL - 74.9, DP - 80.3, ELD - 75.1, SF - 94.4, BT - 101.5, AC - 51.6, PP - 163.4, NF - 56.3, AVG - 81.6
#4 EP - 78.3, LP - 63.9, SP - 79.7, TT - 53.6, MP - 79.4, EL - 74.0, DP - 79.9, ELD - 78.2, SF - 97.4, BT - 105.4, AC - 54.0, PP - 160.9, NF - 54.9, AVG - 81.5
#7 EP - 75.2, LP - 73.9, SP - 84.4, TT - 58.4, MP - 85.4, EL - 77.0, DP - 88.5, ELD - 62.4, SF - 84.8, BT - 86.9, AC - 66.4, PP - 175.7, NF - 39.4, AVG - 81.4
#12 EP - 78.8, LP - 63.6, SP - 79.8, TT - 52.0, MP - 79.1, EL - 74.4, DP - 79.7, ELD - 78.9, SF - 95.3, BT - 105.1, AC - 52.8, PP - 160.4, NF - 57.8, AVG - 81.4
#1 EP - 84.0, LP - 64.0, SP - 82.7, TT - 54.2, MP - 82.5, EL - 76.6, DP - 81.5, ELD - 74.2, SF - 83.5, BT - 96.5, AC - 50.6, PP - 165.6, NF - 54.5, AVG - 80.8
#9 EP - 71.7, LP - 74.9, SP - 83.3, TT - 54.5, MP - 83.2, EL - 77.0, DP - 88.6, ELD - 57.7, SF - 87.4, BT - 83.8, AC - 68.0, PP - 173.5, NF - 43.3, AVG - 80.5
#3 EP - 80.4, LP - 67.1, SP - 82.8, TT - 52.7, MP - 82.2, EL - 77.1, DP - 83.5, ELD - 76.3, SF - 94.8, BT - 102.7, AC - 55.0, PP - 167.3, NF - 46.7, AVG - 80.2
#5 EP - 73.6, LP - 62.3, SP - 76.3, TT - 58.2, MP - 77.4, EL - 69.5, DP - 77.2, ELD - 75.4, SF - 83.5, BT - 97.5, AC - 57.6, PP - 156.2, NF - 53.4, AVG - 78.3
#2 EP - 75.1, LP - 61.9, SP - 76.8, TT - 52.8, MP - 76.4, EL - 71.5, DP - 77.3, ELD - 77.4, SF - 68.7, BT - 93.5, AC - 54.2, PP - 155.2, NF - 43.5, AVG - 75.7
#6 EP - 84.6, LP - 55.3, SP - 77.5, TT - 53.2, MP - 77.1, EL - 72.0, DP - 73.4, ELD - 62.7, SF - 82.2, BT - 86.1, AC - 42.5, PP - 152.1, NF - 52.8, AVG - 74.7

==========
 
Looks like I finished a shitty 285th overall out of the 2300+ who originally entered the contest for the no one out there that cares. That tough two week stretch at the end of Nov to the beginning of Dec basically killed any hopes I had (I was 160-165th just before that bad streak), and I spent the last week plus in concede mode after losing close to 300 spots during that time.
 
Sharkey said:
Just hit everything I bet (and was my contest pick) in the 10th race at Remington;

==========

Race 10 (8f-Dirt);

#2 EP - 73.5, LP - 59.2, SP - 74.4, TT - 53.4, MP - 74.1, EL - 69.0, DP - 74.3, ELD - 78.8, SF - 76.1, BT - 97.6, AC - 53.3, PP - 149.9, NF - 54.5, AVG - 76.0
#6 EP - 69.8, LP - 56.6, SP - 70.8, TT - 51.7, MP - 70.1, EL - 66.2, DP - 70.9, ELD - 78.8, SF - 78.3, BT - 98.4, AC - 52.9, PP - 142.4, NF - 58.0, AVG - 74.2
#5 EP - 66.3, LP - 60.5, SP - 71.5, TT - 49.6, MP - 70.2, EL - 67.3, DP - 73.7, ELD - 70.3, SF - 84.4, BT - 93.5, AC - 57.8, PP - 145.3, NF - 44.1, AVG - 73.4
#1 EP - 68.0, LP - 54.7, SP - 68.7, TT - 52.8, MP - 68.4, EL - 63.9, DP - 68.6, ELD - 78.7, SF - 90.5, BT - 103.1, AC - 53.0, PP - 138.4, NF - 44.4, AVG - 73.3
#9 EP - 71.0, LP - 52.9, SP - 69.1, TT - 51.5, MP - 68.4, EL - 64.6, DP - 67.7, ELD - 73.5, SF - 78.7, BT - 94.0, AC - 49.0, PP - 137.5, NF - 48.7, AVG - 71.3
#4 EP - 62.9, LP - 55.0, SP - 66.3, TT - 49.4, MP - 65.1, EL - 62.6, DP - 67.7, ELD - 73.7, SF - 77.9, BT - 93.9, AC - 55.3, PP - 134.0, NF - 54.5, AVG - 70.6
#7 EP - 66.7, LP - 52.3, SP - 66.6, TT - 52.0, MP - 66.0, EL - 62.1, DP - 66.1, ELD - 77.0, SF - 76.6, BT - 96.2, AC - 51.6, PP - 133.4, NF - 44.7, AVG - 70.1
#8 EP - 70.6, LP - 50.1, SP - 67.2, TT - 52.2, MP - 66.7, EL - 62.6, DP - 65.0, ELD - 70.3, SF - 80.0, BT - 91.8, AC - 47.3, PP - 132.9, NF - 41.8, AVG - 69.1
#3 EP - 60.1, LP - 54.5, SP - 64.6, TT - 46.2, MP - 62.4, EL - 61.8, DP - 66.5, ELD - 71.5, SF - 67.9, BT - 88.1, AC - 55.7, PP - 130.1, NF - 56.8, AVG - 68.2

==========

I keyed the #2 on top of the next three for a 20/1 exacta and a 79/1 trifecta, and played it to win outright. The race came back #2, #5, #1 with the #2 paying out at just over 9/2.
Click to expand...

Boom! Way to go Shark. Nice hit there.
 
Sharkey said:
Looks like I finished a shitty 285th overall out of the 2300+ who originally entered the contest for the no one out there that cares. That tough two week stretch at the end of Nov to the beginning of Dec basically killed any hopes I had (I was 160-165th just before that bad streak), and I spent the last week plus in concede mode after losing close to 300 spots during that time.
Click to expand...

I care bud, haha. And 285th is much better than 808th for what it’s worth.
 
t6p said:
I care bud, haha. And 285th is much better than 808th for what it’s worth.
Click to expand...

I'm just glad it's over, T. I made a few bucks yesterday betting the races too just because I knew I was playing for nothing otherwise. Just wanted to get something out of it, ya know. That was a nice little bonus. But yeah, it's good to be done with this thing. Now I know how all the Toronto sports teams feel every year too when they're forced to play out the string with nothing to gain, so I may have to cut out my occasional teasing of their fans on twitter now because of this experience.
 
Sharkey said:
Now I know how all the Toronto sports teams feel every year too when they're forced to play out the string with nothing to gain, so I may have to cut out my occasional teasing of their fans on twitter now because of this experience.
Click to expand...

No! If anything, now that you can relate, you'll have more material to hammer them with. I'm sure the fans in the centre of the universe can take it.
 
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