The War Room Bet Thread v2

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Jack V Savage said:
We agree that he likely did it, right? The only possible evidence would be Flynn's testimony if he flips on Trump. So the question is whether Flynn flips. I don't have any special insight into that and don't see a basis for deciding on the likelihood. Let's say there's a 75% that it happened times an unknown chance that Flynn rats. That doesn't sound like the kind of bet I normally take. It has the element of the other party letting tribalism (and you've kind of been embarrassing yourself with your Trump white-knighting recently) fuck with their sense of the odds of something, but it doesn't have the element of what I'd regard as the odds being heavily in my favor.
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I'll ignore the rambling and irrelevant portions of your response.

The evidence in question could take the form of an aide's testimony, a memo, a Flynn interview, a Trump interview, an e-mail and probably many other categories. @Lead would be the final arbiter.
 
@Jack V Savage

And no, we don't agree. That's why the bet is valuable. I think the first probability is low, and you are saying 75%.
 
waiguoren said:
I'll ignore the rambling and irrelevant portions of your response.
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There were no rambling or irrelevant portions.

waiguoren said:
The evidence in question could take the form of an aide's testimony, a memo, a Flynn interview, a Trump interview, an e-mail and probably many other categories. @Lead would be the final arbiter.
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Well, I don't think Trump's just going to admit it. I doubt he does much emailing (judging by his Twitter, he's barely literate). Don't know what aide would be involved in that. So I think it does just come down to Flynn singing.

waiguoren said:
@Jack V Savage

And no, we don't agree. That's why the bet is valuable. I think the first probability is low, and you are saying 75%.
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But the overall chance from my perspective is roughly 75% times the chance that Flynn rats Trump out. If we're just making an even-odds bet, you can see why that doesn't work.

Out of curiosity, what would you peg the odds that Trump gave that instruction at and why? I'm basing my assessment on his general lack of scruples (I have zero confidence that doing the right thing is a consideration at all) combined with a desire to cover up the facts (which is solidly established).
 
waiguoren said:
Yeah, I posted that before I saw you backtrack.

I even made the bet easier for you to win. I think you should be more willing to stand behind the predictions you make.
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I would suggest you find something more productive to do with your time rather than be sherdogs resident betmaster. Calm down and go outside for a while
 
Trump is removed from office on, or before, Jan. 1, 2020.

Take the bet @waiguoren. Stop being an angle shooting pussy for once in your life.

50 year sig bet.
 
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zebby23 said:
I would suggest you find something more productive to do with your time rather than be sherdogs resident betmaster. Calm down and go outside for a while
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Cute response, kiddo.

The irony is that you spend more time on here than I do. And instead of constantly polluting the War Room with wildly irresponsible claims like you do with 0 accountability (e.g., Trump will be convicted of five different crimes), at least I risk my sig on my predictions.

You, like many leftoids, prefer yapping to concrete action.
 
waiguoren said:
Cute response, kiddo.

The irony is that you spend more time on here than I do. And instead of constantly polluting the War Room with wildly irresponsible claims like you do with 0 accountability (e.g., Trump will be convicted of five different crimes), at least I risk my sig on my predictions.

You, like many leftoids, prefer yapping to concrete action.
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A little more yapping might be order. Why do you feel so confident that Trump had nothing to do with Flynn's decision to lie to the FBI? Does he just not strike you as the type?
 
HomerThompson said:
Trump is removed from office on, or before, Jan. 1, 2020.

Take the bet @waiguoren. Stop being an angle shooting pussy for once in your life.

50 year sig bet.
Click to expand...

waiguoren said:
Cute response, kiddo.

The irony is that you spend more time on here than I do. And instead of constantly polluting the War Room with wildly irresponsible claims like you do with 0 accountability (e.g., Trump will be convicted of five different crimes), at least I risk my sig on my predictions.

You, like many leftoids, prefer yapping to concrete action.
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Baffling.
 
@waiguoren, apparently you don't want to say where your confidence in Trump comes from. Cool, cool. What are your thoughts on Nunes' FBI stuff? Expecting anything interesting to come from the memo?
 
Jack V Savage said:
A little more yapping might be order. Why do you feel so confident that Trump had nothing to do with Flynn's decision to lie to the FBI? Does he just not strike you as the type?
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What would the motive be? Are you going to dredge up the Logan Act?
 
waiguoren said:
What would the motive be? Are you going to dredge up the Logan Act?
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The motive would be that he didn't want the FBI to know about what was going on. Same as Flynn's (or do you think Flynn has another motive?).
 
Jack V Savage said:
@waiguoren, What are your thoughts on Nunes' FBI stuff? Expecting anything interesting to come from the memo?
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Sure, probably something about the Obama administration going through the FISA court to surveil Trump transition team members.
 
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