The War Room Bet Thread V3

[waiguoren]

Wait, so did nothing get adjusted from the exchange above?

Yeah, but I need to change my name in the event that Stone is convicted of raping Ivanka Trump. I'm assuming he trusts me to uphold that side of the deal without your enforcement.

 

[waiguoren]

@Lead let's roll bro

 

[Lead]

@Lead let's roll bro

Are you expecting a non indictment in the next few hours? I'm on mobile right now?

 

[waiguoren]

Are you expecting a non indictment in the next few hours? I'm on mobile right now?

Heh. Sorry bro. I am a compulsive gambler.

 

[Lead]

1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team.
2. @andnowweknow - for, @waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months


@Lead

I'm good with this.

Format looks fine to me. @andnowweknow, I just need an okay from you to make it official.

There are refs for signing bets now?

Respect all, fear none, my pride is everything... Nas

In.

I think people still do them unofficially. This is just a thread to make it public and decided outside of the bet particpants.

By in, are you saying you accept the bet?

I accept the bet. But I'm not bound by word games (ie "direct result of Mueller investigation"). If Roger Stone gets a sentence as a result of anything related to Trump, Mueller's investigation or anything reference by the investigation I'm in for it.

@waiguoren agree?

See this is important then to adjust beforehand. The original statement under #1 likely needs adjusted before we finalize this.

Anything related to Trump? So if Stone raped Ivanka you'd win?

The spirit of the bet relates to Mueller's investigation. You said that Mueller will indict Stone and that Stone will be convicted for one of the crimes that Mueller indicts him for. My bet phrasing aligns with your statement, right?

@andnowweknow

Middle ground. Remove the word "direct". As long as the crime relates to Russia, you win.

Ok. But I need a favorable prop bet now. If Stone raped Ivanka and it comes to light, you have to change your name to Darnell Trump...and nothing happens to me.

@Lead



Agreed.

@Lead

If you are there, please finalize the bet.

Wait, so did nothing get adjusted from the exchange above?

Yeah, but I need to change my name in the event that Stone is convicted of raping Ivanka Trump. I'm assuming he trusts me to uphold that side of the deal without your enforcement.

@Lead let's roll bro

Are you expecting a non indictment in the next few hours? I'm on mobile right now?

Heh. Sorry bro. I am a compulsive gambler.

Okay...
So what I got from this is nothing really changed aside from a rape side bet that you two can honor on your own? @andnowweknow, keep in mind Mueller's team indicted and is about to convict Manafort for money fraud so your concern about technicalities might not be too concerning. Those councils have the authority to convict for things outside of their original scope, especially if they are using it to leverage for a "bigger fish". There are other liabilities but I don't think this is the biggest of them.

@waiguoren v. @andnowweknow
1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team.
2. andnowweknow- for, waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months

Can I get an okay from both of you? Lets do this.

 

[andnowweknow]

Okay...
So what I got from this is nothing really changed aside from a rape side bet that you two can honor on your own? @andnowweknow, keep in mind Mueller's team indicted and is about to convict Manafort for money fraud so your concern about technicalities might not be too concerning. Those councils have the authority to convict for things outside of their original scope, especially if they are using it to leverage for a "bigger fish". There are other liabilities but I don't think this is the biggest of them.

@waiguoren v. @andnowweknow
1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team.
2. andnowweknow- for, waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months

Can I get an okay from both of you? Lets do this.

Okay from me.
I'm gonna make sweet love that sig @waiguoren . After I'm gonna defile it.

 

[Lead]

Okay...
So what I got from this is nothing really changed aside from a rape side bet that you two can honor on your own? @andnowweknow, keep in mind Mueller's team indicted and is about to convict Manafort for money fraud so your concern about technicalities might not be too concerning. Those councils have the authority to convict for things outside of their original scope, especially if they are using it to leverage for a "bigger fish". There are other liabilities but I don't think this is the biggest of them.

@waiguoren v. @andnowweknow
1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team.
2. andnowweknow- for, waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months

Can I get an okay from both of you? Lets do this.

Okay from me.
I'm gonna make sweet love that sig @waiguoren . After I'm gonna defile it.

@waiguoren

 

[waiguoren]

1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team for Trump/Russia coordination/collusion/conspiracy.
2. @andnowweknow - for, @waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months
6. The conviction needs to be for coordination/collusion/conspiracy between Trump/Russia. For example: treason, conspiracy to defraud the USA, or conspiracy to commit an offense against the USA by coordinating with the Russian state would all give the win to @andnowweknow. Tax fraud as in the Manfort case would not count. Perjury would not count.

@andnowweknow good with this?

 

[andnowweknow]

1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team for Trump/Russia coordination/collusion/conspiracy.
2. @andnowweknow - for, @waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months
6. The conviction needs to be for coordination/collusion/conspiracy between Trump/Russia. For example: treason, conspiracy to defraud the USA, or conspiracy to commit an offense against the USA by coordinating with the Russian state would all give the win to @andnowweknow. Tax fraud as in the Manfort case would not count. Perjury would not count.

@andnowweknow good with this?

You're changing the bet, often prosecutors settle for lesser charges and everyone knows stone will flip. You're trying to game the spirit of this. No dice.

Everyone knows Stone's tax problems will probably make Manafort's seem tame.

The guy is singing or going to jail.

 

[waiguoren]

You're changing the bet, often prosecutors settle for lesser charges and everyone knows stone will flip. You're trying to game the spirit of this. No dice.

Everyone knows Stone's tax problems will probably make Manafort's seem tame.

The guy is singing or going to jail.

First of all, the bet isn't confirmed yet so of course it's subject to change.

The spirit of the bet:

My view is that there is basically zero chance that Stone helped Trump or the Trump campaign to collude/conspire with Putin. The same goes for Manafort, though slightly more likely with Manafort since he's obviously a crook. I thought you disagreed.

Mueller is a dog. With Manafort, he's shown he doesn't GAF about the original purpose of this investigation (Russia/Trump coordination). He'll indict you for jaywalking if it comes down to it. So I think you're going against the spirit of the bet here.

 

[andnowweknow]

First of all, the bet isn't confirmed yet so of course it's subject to change.

The spirit of the bet:

My view is that there is basically zero chance that Stone helped Trump or the Trump campaign to collude/conspire with Putin. The same goes for Manafort, though slightly more likely with Manafort since he's obviously a crook. I thought you disagreed.

Mueller is a dog. With Manafort, he's shown he doesn't GAF about the original purpose of this investigation (Russia/Trump coordination). He'll indict you for jaywalking if it comes down to it. So I think you're going against the spirit of the bet here.

You saying Mueller doesn't care about the purpose of the investigation shows you don't understand the process (not like I fully get it either). Squeezing people is a common start to this stuff, and none of what you said excuses Manafort or Stone from being obvious ethical scumbags. You have no idea what the totality of the investigation will yield, there is clearly a lot more to come.

I'll take the bet on your terms.

 

[waiguoren]

You saying Mueller doesn't care about the purpose of the investigation shows you don't understand the process (not like I fully get it either). Squeezing people is a common start to this stuff, and none of what you said excuses Manafort or Stone from being obvious ethical scumbags. You have no idea what the totality of the investigation will yield, there is clearly a lot more to come.

I'll take the bet on your terms.

@Lead

1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team for Trump/Russia coordination/collusion/conspiracy.
2. @andnowweknow - for, @waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months
6. The conviction needs to be for coordination/collusion/conspiracy between Trump/Russia. For example: treason, conspiracy to defraud the USA, or conspiracy to commit an offense against the USA by coordinating with the Russian state would all give the win to @andnowweknow. Tax fraud as in the Manafort case would not count. Perjury would not count.

 

[andnowweknow]

@Lead

1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team for Trump/Russia coordination/collusion/conspiracy.
2. @andnowweknow - for, @waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months
6. The conviction needs to be for coordination/collusion/conspiracy between Trump/Russia. For example: treason, conspiracy to defraud the USA, or conspiracy to commit an offense against the USA by coordinating with the Russian state would all give the win to @andnowweknow. Tax fraud as in the Manafort case would not count. Perjury would not count.

If Stone flips as part of a plea on any of those above charges I win.

 

[waiguoren]

If Stone flips as part of a plea on any of those above charges I win.

Meh, I can foresee a scenario in which Mueller tries to hit Stone with one of those charges. Stone knows they don't hold water but pleas down to a minor crime (fine/probation) in order to avoid massive legal fees. That scenario would give you the win but shouldn't.

 

[waiguoren]

If Stone flips as part of a plea on any of those above charges I win.

Also, how would we know that Stone pleaded down from one of those charges? Take Flynn. He pleaded down to making false statements, but we don't know what greater offense he was threatened with.

 

[andnowweknow]

Also, how would we know that Stone pleaded down from one of those charges? Take Flynn. He pleaded down to making false statements, but we don't know what greater offense he was threatened with.

Why don't we both just be reasonable about the obvious? It's a sig bet. I doubt once Stone is indicted that there will be a lot of ambiguity and Mueller's report will be laden with evidenciary claims that aren't shut he just made up.

Are you someone whose still skeptical about Haliburton contracts and why they were given despite "evidence" it was because of a certain admin player?

Just be reasonable and stop with the gaming shit.

 

[waiguoren]

Just be reasonable and stop with the gaming shit.

Um, I pointed out a serious problem with the terms that you framed, and this is your response?

 

[andnowweknow]

Um, I pointed out a serious problem with the terms that you framed, and this is your response?

Um, I wrote 2 full paragraphs in addition to that.

How would propose we deal with the obvious high chance that Stone will cop a plea. It's irrelevant if he's not charged with something Russia related.

 

[waiguoren]

Um, I wrote 2 full paragraphs in addition to that.

How would propose we deal with the obvious high chance that Stone will cop a plea. It's irrelevant if he's not charged with something Russia related.

Yeah the other paragraphs didn't address the point either.

My view is that Roger Stone did nothing illegal to help the Trump campaign collude/conspire with the Russian government in the 2016 election.

You think I'm wrong, correct?

In my opinion, if Stone pleas to a lesser charge, his goal will be to avoid prosecution for crimes unrelated to Russia collusion/conspiracy. So I'd be willing to accept the last offer you made, but the problem remains that we probably won't have any way to verify his specific reason for pleading down.

How about this: in the event that Roger Stone signs a plea agreement, the bet is a push.

 

[andnowweknow]

Yeah the other paragraphs didn't address the point either.

My view is that Roger Stone did nothing illegal to help the Trump campaign collude/conspire with the Russian government in the 2016 election.

You think I'm wrong, correct?

In my opinion, if Stone pleas to a lesser charge, his goal will be to avoid prosecution for crimes unrelated to Russia collusion/conspiracy. So I'd be willing to accept the last offer you made, but the problem remains that we probably won't have any way to verify his specific reason for pleading down.

How about this: in the event that Roger Stone signs a plea agreement, the bet is a push.

The bet is 99.9% a push then. Unless you don't think he's getting indicted at all...which means you haven't been listening to Stone himself.

As a side note, you really enjoy bantering about incredible minutia and intricacies that are beyond the scope of SD intellectualism. You might have been better off putting this energy into my endless Penn vs GSP 2 thread back in the day than this.