The War Room Bet Thread V3

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@Jack V Savage

As you know, I think very little of Nate Silver and his 538 corporation.

Below we have one of 538's prognosticators giving his best estimates for the Senate/House D/R breakdown post-election.

I believe I can predict the House breakdown more accurately than 538 can. Would you like to have a bet on that proposition?

 
@Jack V Savage

As you know, I think very little of Nate Silver and his 538 corporation.

Below we have one of 538's prognosticators giving his best estimates for the Senate/House D/R breakdown post-election.

I believe I can predict the House breakdown more accurately than 538 can. Would you like to have a bet on that proposition?



Possibly. Get more specific.
 
Possibly. Get more specific.

Whoever (Enten or me) has a lower estimate of |actual Democratic House lead - estimated Democratic House lead| wins. Final estimates given on Nov. 6.


As you can see from the video, Harry Enten's best estimate is D+23. My best estimate will likely differ from Enten's.

Examples: 1) if my estimate is R +1 and the actual result is D + 20, Enten wins. (Enten's score = 3, my score = 24)

2) if my estimate is R+5 and the actual result is R+2, I win. (Enten's score = 25, my score = 3)

3) If my estimate is D+1 and the actual result is D+30, Enten wins. (My score = 29, Enten's score = 6)
 
That's right Mr. Savage and Mr. Wai..... Saturate your poetry as the fusion sets forth. The insertions is the only way for man to find his thread within the spectrum of the notable consciousness....
 
Has childish goading ever worked on me?

No goading here. I just genuinely believe I'm a superior political prognosticator to the "experts" at 538.

The bet as offered doesn't sound that impressive to me, as you could just ape their predictions and then randomly go up or down one and have about an even chance of winning,

That's not going to happen. I'm going to independently handicap all the tossup states. I'm halfway done my first pass and some of my predictions already differ substantially from the "expert" analysis.

If you show a method that has an independent method of generating a prediction, I'd be more interested.
As with other events that I bet on, I'm not used to disclosing my methods, and I'm not sure why that's even necessarily. The point is to show that I can make more accurate predictions than they can.

How about we leave the terms the same but make the bet invalid if my estimate differs by less than five from Enten's? If you don't like that idea, feel free to offer a different measure.
 
1. Jeff Flake will run for president in 2020.
2. @waiguoren for, @Fawlty against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of @waiguoren or @Fawlty concedes
4. Name bet
5. 1 year


Let's do this.
We're definitely not going to bet together.

The only way I would take a bet along these lines is if there was a reasonable date for suspending his campaign, something significant. Anybody can put their toe in the water. But that sort of negotiating, you and I will not do. And you're strikingly socially inept to think that I'd want to take a gentleman's bet with you after your recent behavior.
 
We're definitely not going to bet together.

The only way I would take a bet along these lines is if there was a reasonable date for suspending his campaign, something significant. Anybody can put their toe in the water. But that sort of negotiating, you and I will not do. And you're strikingly socially inept to think that I'd want to take a gentleman's bet with you after your recent behavior.
lol. Backtrack of the ages.
 
@waiguoren, what's your prediction? I think rather than making the bet in anticipation of final picks, I'd just like to bet on the picks with that framework. That is, they make a pick, you make a substantially different pick, and we bet on which one will be more accurate.
 
@waiguoren, what's your prediction? I think rather than making the bet in anticipation of final picks, I'd just like to bet on the picks with that framework. That is, they make a pick, you make a substantially different pick, and we bet on which one will be more accurate.
Obviously I'm not ready to make a final prediction yet. Neither are they. As I just told you, I am still handicapping the tossup races. So far I've capped 18 of them.
 
Let’s do this!
Bernie and Biden. If either declares, you win.

What is the bet? Sig bet?

1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; @Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year


@Lead, I agree to these terms.
 
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; @Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year


@Lead, I agree to these terms.
Why in God's Holy Name would anyone bet against this
Where do you find these people
 
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; @Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year


@Lead, I agree to these terms.

Easy money.
@Lead, I agree to these terms.
 
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; @Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year


@Lead, I agree to these terms.

Easy money.
@Lead, I agree to these terms.

@Pelosi2016 , there's no trick in how your interpreting the wording in this, right? You are saying if Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders runs for president in 2020, you lose, correct?

@waiguoren v. @Pelosi2016
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; @Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year

I need both of you to quote this post and give a final okay
 
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