Trump's Border Wall and The Upcoming Elections

He will continue to "kick the can down the road". I don't know if this will hurt him or help him though. He could excuse this by promoting the idea that there are more important and critical things to focus on now. That blue wave you speak of could be coming, it is really 50-50 right now.

I would also like to know the Democrat's solution to illegal immigration. What do they propose?
How about we go after the people using illegal immigrants?.
I mean not Trumo because he is awesome and above the rest of us but you know, everyone else who uses illegal immigrants.
 
How about we go after the people using illegal immigrants?.
I mean not Trumo because he is awesome and above the rest of us but you know, everyone else who uses illegal immigrants.
Trump and the Trump base are in favor of employer sanctions. E-verify already exists and is administered by DHS but it seems that identity fraud by employees is hard to detect.

Anyway, there's no reason you can't punish employers and build the wall. The Trump Justice Department has already raided many employers for hiring illegal aliens.
 
Right now on Breitbart you can find literally thousands of die-hard Trumpist/Bannonist people who are enraged that Trump's vision is again taking a backseat to Ryan's and McConnell's plans. These people are going to be discouraged from voting in November.

On the other hand, the #resistance people are motivated like I have never seen in my lifetime.


The people who read breitbart aren’t going to vote democrat.

Play up the Meuller investigation angle, “we need to keep the house to fight off impeachment”, that will fire up the base even more than the wall. Viola, you have a fired up base, with a universally appealing message.


The resistance is fired up on the Internet, showing up to the polls isn’t really their thing.
 
The people who read breitbart aren’t going to vote democrat.

Of course not. It's a question of turnout, bob. TURNOUT.

Play up the Meuller investigation angle, “we need to keep the house to fight off impeachment”, that will fire up the base even more than the wall.

A substantial percentage of the Breitbart people don't care about Trump except to the extent that he's tough on immigration. They hate Ryan and McConnell as much as they hate Pelosi. If Trump won't deliver on immigration, he's no better than a generic politician.

The resistance is fired up on the Internet, showing up to the polls isn’t really their thing.

The evidence from special elections doesn't bear this out.
 
The people who read breitbart aren’t going to vote democrat.

Play up the Meuller investigation angle, “we need to keep the house to fight off impeachment”, that will fire up the base even more than the wall. Viola, you have a fired up base, with a universally appealing message.


The resistance is fired up on the Internet, showing up to the polls isn’t really their thing.

I guess you haven't been paying attention to the special elections or primaries.

Progressive candidates are even upsetting establishment Dems.
 
Of course not. It's a question of turnout, bob. TURNOUT.



A substantial percentage of the Breitbart people don't care about Trump except to the extent that he's tough on immigration. They hate Ryan and McConnell as much as they hate Pelosi. If Trump won't deliver on immigration, he's no better than a generic politician.



The evidence from special elections doesn't bear this out.

I guess you haven't been paying attention to the special elections or primaries.

Progressive candidates are even upsetting establishment Dems.



Republicans have done ok in the special elections.

Waig, I think you’re overestimating the importance of the wall.

Economy
National security
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Republicans have done ok in the special elections.

Waig, I think you’re overestimating the importance of the wall.

Economy
National security
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That just isn't true.

Republican candidates have lost significant support in every single special election since Trump took office, even the ones they won. Massive shifts of 20 points or more in the opposite direction.

Candidates personally endorsed by Trump have been met with defeat.

I don't think @waiguoren is overestimating the importance of the wall. The wall was the main campaign promise from Trump without question.

I think he's underestimating a Trump's supporter's desire for measurable results in practical reality. Even with no wall, they won't care. Hell he can still run on build the wall since no wall has been built and they'll still love it.

They just like simple slogans.

 
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Republicans have done ok in the special elections.

Waig, I think you’re overestimating the importance of the wall.

Economy
National security
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.wall

It's his central campaign promise. Immigration is the #1 issue for Republican voters as shown by multiple national polls. I think you're underestimating it.

The economy is cyclical. There will be a downturn under Trump's watch. He failed on health care. He can't screw up immigration.

Republicans have lost massive support in the special elections. Look what just happened in OH12. That is a deep red district and the Republican barely held on. This is a bit misleading because Trump has sacrificed wealthy suburban support for working class support, but overall it's been bad for the Republicans.
 
How about we go after the people using illegal immigrants?.
I mean not Trumo because he is awesome and above the rest of us but you know, everyone else who uses illegal immigrants.



Yes, I agree. We should go after everyone who employees them. Equally anyone who charges then rent too.
 
I think he's underestimating a Trump's supporter's desire for measurable results in practical reality. Even with no wall, they won't care. Hell he can still run on build the wall since no wall has been built and they'll still love it.

I was on the phone with my 70-year-old cousin a couple hours ago. He's the biggest Trump supporter around. He thinks Ryan/McConnell are Soros-funded just like Pelosi and the rest. Trump is a hero navigating a minefield, in his view.

I love that man and I'm familiar with the way he thinks. I imagine some non-trivial percentage of the Trump base thinks the way he does. However, I think it's more like 40%, whereas I get the feeling that you think it's about 80%.
 
I was on the phone with my 70-year-old cousin a couple hours ago. He's the biggest Trump supporter around. He thinks Ryan/McConnell are Soros-funded just like Pelosi and the rest. Trump is a hero navigating a minefield, in his view.

I love that man and I'm familiar with the way he thinks. I imagine some non-trivial percentage of the Trump base thinks the way he does. However, I think it's more like 40%, whereas I get the feeling that you think it's about 80%.

I almost wish you were right, but looking at a Trump rally it's hard to support your figures.
 
I almost wish you were right, but looking at a Trump rally it's hard to support your figures.

I don't think Trump rallies support your figures. First, that's mostly the diehard of the diehard. Second, just because they are there doesn't mean they view Trump as a god. I'd probably go to a Trump rally if there were one in my area and if I didn't have to wait for 10 hours to get in. It would be an interesting experience even though I'm not fully sold on Trump.
 
I don't think Trump rallies support your figures. First, that's mostly the diehard of the diehard. Second, just because they are there doesn't mean they view Trump as a god. I'd probably go to a Trump rally if there were one in my area and if I didn't have to wait for 10 hours to get in. It would be an interesting experience even though I'm not fully sold on Trump.

We're talking about hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, that attended Trump rallies the past few years in an election that was decided by 50-70,000 votes in two or three states.
 
We're talking about hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, that attended Trump rallies the past few years in an election that was decided by 50-70,000 votes in two or three states.
This was a conversation about turnout, right? How can Trump get a boost in the midterms? My claim is that insisting on funding for the wall pre-November is a winning strategy. Ryan and McConnell will have to buckle. If the Democrats insist on a shutdown over wall funding, they will get killed in November. I don't see the political downside. Do you agree with @bobgeese that insisting on wall funding would rev up the other side more than it would rev up the Republicans?
 
This was a conversation about turnout, right? How can Trump get a boost in the midterms? My claim is that insisting on funding for the wall pre-November is a winning strategy. Ryan and McConnell will have to buckle. If the Democrats insist on a shutdown over wall funding, they will get killed in November. I don't see the political downside. Do you agree with @bobgeese that insisting on wall funding would rev up the other side more than it would rev up the Republicans?

No my stance is simply not being Democrat is enough.

The message doesn't matter to most of these people.

Pushing the wall would work, but they could go in literally any direction for the same turnout.
 
Pushing the wall would work, but they could go in literally any direction for the same turnout.

I think this is a very simplistic view of how elections work. You're acknowledging that Republican turnout in the special elections has been lower than normal, right? But Republican turnout in 2016 was high. Something changed. Obviously it's not just one factor, but which factors are most important to changing Republican turnout?

In my view, getting back to the populist/Bannonist message of the 2016 campaign is much smarter politics than betting on another tax cut doing the job.
 
I think this is a very simplistic view of how elections work. You're acknowledging that Republican turnout in the special elections has been lower than normal, right? But Republican turnout in 2016 was high. Something changed. Obviously it's not just one factor, but which factors are most important to changing Republican turnout?

In my view, getting back to the populist/Bannonist message of the 2016 campaign is much smarter politics than betting on another tax cut doing the job.

I don't think the Republican turnout is down, Democrat turnout is just up and it's up in areas that they don't normally show up.

Republicans have a solid voting block that will vote for them no matter what, however it's never enough to actually win elections by itself outside of their strongholds. They need undecideds and independents to win national elections which is easier said than done.

Trump benefited from a political climate pushing people to the sides and a historically unlikable Democrat nominee.
 
I don't think the Republican turnout is down, Democrat turnout is just up and it's up in areas that they don't normally show up.

Republicans have a solid voting block that will vote for them no matter what, however it's never enough to actually win elections by itself outside of their strongholds. They need undecideds and independents to win national elections which is easier said than done.

Trump benefited from a political climate pushing people to the sides and a historically unlikable Democrat nominee.
That's not consistent with what we know happened in 2016. Millions of Obama voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio voted for Trump.
 
That's not consistent with what we know happened in 2016. Millions of Obama voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio voted for Trump.

Exactly, they had to dip into other pots to win a national election.

I wouldn't call Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Iowa, or Ohio Democrat territory or even Obama's territory. It's no one's territory.

They're historical swing states with incredibly fickle voters.
 
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