TUF 27 Finale bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sadistics, Jul 6, 2018.

  1. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Who ya got
     
  2. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Tavares +335 .15u

    Trizano +152 1.7u
    Trizano DEC +280 .26u
    Trizano ITD +700 .3u

    Caceres +108 2u
    Caceres SUB +750 .13u

    Marquez -127 1.5u

    Honchak -140 .5u

    Ostovich +191 .5u
    Ostovich SUB +625 .13u

    Bessette -138 .5u
    Bessette NSC +100 .33u

    Pena -158 4.5u (Combination of +145, +105, -120, -160, -210, and -222)

    Piechota -133 1.33u
    Piechota SUB +565 .25u

    Mitchell NSC -134 .9u
    Diamond DEC +185 .13u

    Planned to switch over to Adesanya, but can't do it with the small cage, bought out most of my Tavares action. Wanted to be on Mitchell as a big dog but the public is giving him his deserved respect. Will be on Katona if I can get near -200
     
  3. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

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    Pena -158 4.5u (Combination of +145, +105, -120, -160, -210, and -222)

    Niiiiice.
     
  4. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    0.4u Tavares DEC +330
    0.1u Tavares SUB +955

    1u Piechota +155
    0.5u Meerchaert +205

    Tiny card for me. Couldn't even bring myself to leave the 1u on Piechota alone. Hoping for some decent live betting opportunities.
     
  5. Larthus

    Larthus White Belt

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    I have a disgusting amount of units on Trizano what is bankroll management boys i'm either buying a ferrari or burning newspaper under a bridge to stay warm after this one
     
  6. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    1.5u Peña + Brazier(win) @2.10
    1u Bravo @2.15

    1u Trizano @2.50
    0.3u Trizano ITD @8.00

    1u Tavares @2.25
     
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  7. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Green Belt

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    $62.51/$102.97
    Honchak/Modafarri st round 3 -585
    Whitmire/Moyle st round 3 -467
    Raphael Assuncao -170
    Mighty Mouse -580

    $10/$140
    No extras Miami/wash win
    Texas/Detroit win
    Pena -3.5 -260
    Brad Katona -240
    Assuncao by decision +100
    Daniel Cormier +190
    Mighty Mouse -580

    $20/$59
    Atlanta first 5 -130 win
    Brazil wins group -225 win
    Joey Chestnut -750 win
    Luis Pena -285

    $20/$350
    Joe Giannetti -135
    Font/Assuncao starts rd 3 -320
    Costa inside distance -190
    Cormier by decision +425
     
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  8. Ryan Kelly

    Ryan Kelly Yellow Belt

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    Diamond -155 1u
    Zuniga -135 0.7u
    Marquez -160 1.5u
    Trizano +145 1.2u
    Tavares +155 1u
    Katona ITD +190 0.3u
    Honchak DEC -122 1.3u
    Pena + Katona -120 1u

    Good luck fellas!
     
  9. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    3.2u Tavares +150
    0.5u Tavares itd +285
    2u Piechota +110
    1.45u Ostovich +155
    1.4u Bessette -135

    Got a couple of more small bets I tailed that I haven't added to my spreadsheet yet, will post them in the pbp thread if I'm still awake then
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2018
  10. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    1u = 20$

    TUF27bets.jpg

    Working a bunch of overtime so not a lot of tape study. Made some bets that were "safer" lol and tailed BB @ Sad on Triz there. BOL everyone.
     
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  11. Karmello

    Karmello Green Belt

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    6,67u Marquez - Chirico Under 2.5 @1,96
    Freeroll Piechota to win 4,15u
    3u Ostovich @2,75 (might hedge with de la Rosa SUB)

    Will probably add some more small plays and depending on how the night is going I'll bet the ME
     
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  12. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    TUF 27 Finale Risk $5134.80

    Brad Tavares (+150) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $300.00
    Not Israel Adesanya inside distance (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
    Brad Tavares wins by submission (+745) $30.00 for $223.50
    Brad Tavares wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+425) $25.00 for $106.25
    Brad Tavares/Israel Adesanya time out in fight (+210) ~$26.00 for ~$54.60

    Joe Giannetti (-155) vs Mike Trizano $155.00 for $100.00
    Joe Giannetti wins by submission (+145) $30.00 for $43.50

    Brad Katona/Jay Cucciniello Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00

    Alex Caceres (-120) vs Martín Bravo $120.00 for $100.00
    Alex Caceres wins by submission (+570) $20.00 for $114.00

    Barb Honchak (-166) vs Roxanne Modafferi $332.00 for $200.00
    Barb Honchak wins by 3 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00
    Roxanne Modafferi wins by TKO/KO (+1665) $30.00 for $499.50

    Julian Marquez (-155) vs Alessio Di Chirico $465.00 for $300.00
    Alessio Di Chirico (+145) vs Julian Marquez $200.00 for $290.00
    Julian Marquez wins by TKO/KO (+170) $30.00 for $51.00
    Julian Marquez/Alessio Di Chirico won’t start round 3 (-122) $48.80 for $40.00

    Rachael Ostovich (+155) vs Montana De La Rosa $100.00 for $155.00
    Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+405) $25.00 for $101.25
    Rachael Ostovich wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00
    Rachael Osotovich wins by submission in round 3 (+1900) ~$13.00 for ~$247.00
    Rachael Osotovich/Montana De La Rosa fight ends in submission (+188) ~$32.50 for ~$61.10

    Luis Pena (-336) vs Richie Smullen $1,008.00 for $300.00
    Luis Pena (-230) vs Richie Smullen $230.00 for $100.00
    Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-140) $42.00 for $30.00
    Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-143) ~$84.50 for ~$59.09
    Luis Pena wins by TKO/KO (+150) $40.00 for $60.00
    Luis Pena wins in round 1 (+145) $40.00 for $58.00
    Luis Pena wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00
    Luis Pena/Richie Smullen Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

    John Gunther (-105) vs Allan Zuniga $105.00 for $100.00

    Tyler Diamond (-155) vs Bryce Mitchell $155.00 for $100.00

    Matt Bessette (-160) vs Steven Peterson $160.00 for $100.00
    Matt Bessette wins inside distance (+300) $35.00 for $105.00

    Oskar Piechota (-165) vs Gerald Meerschaert $165.00 for $100.00
    Oskar Piechota (-185) vs Gerald Meerschaert $185.00 for $100.00
    Oskar Piechota wins in round 1 (+195) $30.00 for $58.50
    Oskar Piechota wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+320) ~$26.00 for ~$83.20
    Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
    Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert won’t start round 3 (-174) $87.00 for $50.00

    Parlay:
    Oskar Piechota (-220) vs Gerald Meerschaert + Luis Pena (-327) vs Richie Smullen $250.00 for $224.84
     
  13. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Added some last minute event props right before they pulled them:

    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+137) $40.00 for $54.80
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+385) $25.00 for $96.25
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1137) $15.00 for $170.55
     
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  14. kenfloshogun

    kenfloshogun Orange Belt

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    Piechota gassing bad.
     
  15. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Added: John Gunther (-125) vs Allan Zuniga $250.00 for $200.00
     
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  16. TITS

    TITS Black Beast Belt Platinum Member

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  17. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    A great number of bets to end up almost back to break even. Luis Pena was my big pre-fight winner along with the Roxanne Modafferi by TKO/KO prop. But I had to dig some big losers like Barb Honchak and Brad Tavares out of a hole with live betting to finish near to where I started. Have to conclude that Israel Adesanya is for real based on this performance. Very small loss of 0.32 units so little harm done.

    TUF 27 Finale Results


    Brad Tavares (+150) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $300.00= -$200.00
    Not Israel Adesanya inside distance (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Brad Tavares wins by submission (+745) $30.00 for $223.50= -$30.00
    Brad Tavares wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+425) $25.00 for $106.25= -$25.00
    Brad Tavares/Israel Adesanya time out in fight (+210) ~$26.00 for ~$54.60= ~$54.60
    Live In-Play Israel Adesanya (-420) vs Brad Tavares $840.00 for $200.00= $200.00

    Joe Giannetti (-155) vs Mike Trizano $155.00 for $100.00= -$155.00
    Joe Giannetti wins by submission (+145) $30.00 for $43.50= -$30.00
    Live In-Play Joe Giannetti (-160) vs Mike Trizano $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00

    Brad Katona/Jay Cucciniello Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00

    Alex Caceres (-120) vs Martín Bravo $120.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Alex Caceres wins by submission (+570) $20.00 for $114.00= -$20.00
    Live In-Play Alex Caceres (+135) vs Martín Bravo $100.00 for $135.00= $135.00
    Live In-Play Alex Caceres (-170) vs Martín Bravo $170.00 for $100.00= $100.00

    Barb Honchak (-166) vs Roxanne Modafferi $332.00 for $200.00= -$332.00
    Barb Honchak wins by 3 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00= -$60.00
    Roxanne Modafferi wins by TKO/KO (+1665) $30.00 for $499.50= $499.50
    Live In-Play Roxanne Modafferi (-195) vs Barb Honchak $585.00 for $300.00= $300.00

    Julian Marquez (-155) vs Alessio Di Chirico $465.00 for $300.00= -$465.00
    Alessio Di Chirico (+145) vs Julian Marquez $200.00 for $290.00= $290.00
    Julian Marquez wins by TKO/KO (+170) $30.00 for $51.00= -$30.00
    Julian Marquez/Alessio Di Chirico won’t start round 3 (-122) $48.80 for $40.00= -$48.80

    Rachael Ostovich (+155) vs Montana De La Rosa $100.00 for $155.00= -$100.00
    Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+405) $25.00 for $101.25= -$25.00
    Rachael Ostovich wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00= -$10.00
    Rachael Osotovich wins by submission in round 3 (+1900) ~$13.00 for ~$247.00= -~$13.00
    Rachael Osotovich/Montana De La Rosa fight ends in submission (+188) ~$32.50 for ~$61.10= ~$61.10

    Luis Pena (-336) vs Richie Smullen $1,008.00 for $300.00= $300.00
    Luis Pena (-230) vs Richie Smullen $230.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-140) $42.00 for $30.00= $30.00
    Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-143) ~$84.50 for ~$59.09= ~$59.09
    Luis Pena wins by TKO/KO (+150) $40.00 for $60.00= -$40.00
    Luis Pena wins in round 1 (+145) $40.00 for $58.00= $58.00
    Luis Pena wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00= -$15.00
    Luis Pena/Richie Smullen Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00

    John Gunther (-105) vs Allan Zuniga $105.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    John Gunther (-125) vs Allan Zuniga $250.00 for $200.00= $200.00

    Tyler Diamond (-155) vs Bryce Mitchell $155.00 for $100.00= -$155.00

    Matt Bessette (-160) vs Steven Peterson $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
    Matt Bessette wins inside distance (+300) $35.00 for $105.00= -$35.00

    Oskar Piechota (-165) vs Gerald Meerschaert $165.00 for $100.00= -$165.00
    Oskar Piechota (-185) vs Gerald Meerschaert $185.00 for $100.00= -$185.00
    Oskar Piechota wins in round 1 (+195) $30.00 for $58.50= -$30.00
    Oskar Piechota wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+320) ~$26.00 for ~$83.20= -~$26.00
    Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= -$125.00
    Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert won’t start round 3 (-174) $87.00 for $50.00= $50.00

    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+137) $40.00 for $54.80= -$40.00
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+385) $25.00 for $96.25= -$25.00
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1137) $15.00 for $170.55= -$15.00

    Parlay:
    Oskar Piechota (-220) vs Gerald Meerschaert + Luis Pena (-327) vs Richie Smullen $250.00 for $224.84= -$250.00
    -----
    Sub-Total= -$168.30
    Sub-Total= ~$135.79

    Total Loss= -$32.51
     
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  18. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    +0.8u
     
  19. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    0.4u Tavares DEC +330 -0.4u
    0.1u Tavares SUB +955 -0.1u

    1u Piechota +155 -1u
    0.5u Meerchaert +205 +1.025u

    NET: -0.475u

    Went back and forth for days on whether I wanted to freeroll Piechota or Meerchaert. I picked the wrong guy lol. Also resisted the urge to place a real bet on Tavares thankfully. Insane performance by Isreal.
     
  20. Karmello

    Karmello Green Belt

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    Lol went -9,67u on my pre bets.

    I added these bets inbetween and during the fights and posted all of them in the PBP discussion as well and still ended up with a nice 4,95u profit:

    3u Roxanne @2,35
    2,33u Roxanne @2,18
    1,5u Gunther @1,57
    1,75u Mitchell @2,0

    1u Cucciniello @4,25
    0,5u Peterson DEC @4,5 (Thanks to @wack3d for this one!)
    1,25u Trizano @2,61
    2,5u Adesanya @1,98
    2u Adesanya-Tavares Goes the distance @1,5


    When the odds came out I was thinking about betting Tavares at 2,75 or so, but I didn't want to get burned by Israel again, so I decided to wait and thought I could get Adesanya at about evens or maybe even as a dog just before the fight and that's exactly what happened and I happily took him at 1,98. What I regret the most is my 3u bet on Ostovich, the bet didn't feel right and I was thinking about cashing it out just before the fight started, but because of my stubbornness I didn't.

    Hope everyone had a profitable event and BOL with your UFC 226 bets!
     

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