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Interesting point !
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A couple of things I want to add on about Tavares / Israel ....
1. Tavares does not need to have perfect tds because just one td is a round winning event. Tavares does not have the best offensive wrestling and Israel's tdd is not bad, but Tavares does not have to successfully finish every td. If he gets one td on five attempts, he will probably win the fight with that ratio because Israel has pretty amateur ability to get back his feet and he just plays full guard and gives up rounds. One takedown for Brad Tavares is probably a round winning event (please see Vettori round 3).
2. This five round thing is huge (Vettori could have very likely won the fight in a five rounder vs Israel and Tavares is just a much better version of Vettori). Israel seems to slow down and his takedown defense gets worse as time goes on and if he has already been taken down earlier in the fight. His TDD was significantly more technical and crisp in the first and second round against Vettori than it was in the third. Then the takedown came pretty easily and he wasn't whizzering or using actual wrestling TD as much. If this similar timeline occurs vs Brad, Brad will take full advantage as he has great cardio.
I think Tavares in a five rounder should be the betting favorite so I went pretty hard on him at plus 160 last week.
1. Tavares does not need to have perfect tds because just one td is a round winning event. Tavares does not have the best offensive wrestling and Israel's tdd is not bad, but Tavares does not have to successfully finish every td. If he gets one td on five attempts, he will probably win the fight with that ratio because Israel has pretty amateur ability to get back his feet and he just plays full guard and gives up rounds. One takedown for Brad Tavares is probably a round winning event (please see Vettori round 3).
2. This five round thing is huge (Vettori could have very likely won the fight in a five rounder vs Israel and Tavares is just a much better version of Vettori). Israel seems to slow down and his takedown defense gets worse as time goes on and if he has already been taken down earlier in the fight. His TDD was significantly more technical and crisp in the first and second round against Vettori than it was in the third. Then the takedown came pretty easily and he wasn't whizzering or using actual wrestling TD as much. If this similar timeline occurs vs Brad, Brad will take full advantage as he has great cardio.
I think Tavares in a five rounder should be the betting favorite so I went pretty hard on him at plus 160 last week.
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Israel found his way up on a couple of those take downs didnt he?
I think watching tape is good for most fights, but I'm going off more so the thought that Israel will still improve and Tavares still is who he is. I expect Israel to rock Tavares at least twice early on so that nullifies the points scored from a take down. Either way I appreciate everyone's feelings towards this fight because its helping the odds go my way. At least now if I lose I wont be breaking the bank lol
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Tavares has beaten (and looked much better doing it) better guys than Israel has even faced so far. I realize that Israel is at that point in his career where huge leaps in his game are possible. I also realize he has the striking pedigree that means he can potentially get anyone out of there if he lands. But I cannot fathom paying juice on a guy coming off a lackluster win vs a guy like Vettori when he's facing a much better overall fighter in Tavares this time out.
Again, we could see a much better version of Adesanya this time out, but if we see a similar guy to what we saw in his last fight, he's gonna get smoked.
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Good points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this? I think he might stay standing and try to beat Adesanya in a striking battle. I'm not sure about Tavares fight IQ. He comes across pretty dumb and he's had it real easy in his last few fights. This is a fight where there is a clear path to victory by mixing wrestling with striking but the guy doesn't come across as the smartest guy in the world.
Adesanya got starched last year. His chin is also suspect
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Good points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this? I think he might stay standing and try to beat Adesanya in a striking battle. I'm not sure about Tavares fight IQ. He comes across pretty dumb and he's had it real easy in his last few fights. This is a fight where there is a clear path to victory by mixing wrestling with striking but the guy doesn't come across as the smartest guy in the world.
Adesanya got starched last year. His chin is also suspect
That's why you have coaches and a fight camp.
Plus, it's silly to think Tavares can't hang on the feet. My guess is he'll strike some, which will set up the takedowns. If Brad hits just one takedown and is able to hold Israel down for any length of time, that immediately improves Brad's striking and lessens Israel's for the rest of the fight. Because you then have one fighter with absolutely zero concern of defending a akedown vs a guy who has to worry about it. When you are worried about being taken down, your striking defense suffers as does your offense and output. Here's a great example from awhile back:
Kongo was absoltuely petrified of being taken down and ending up on his back vs Mir (with good reason). So notice when Mir starts to level change, Kongo drops both his arms expecting to have to sprawl. Instead he gets hit flush with an overhand left that drops him and leads to him getting choked unconscious. Back then, everyone would favor Kongo in a striking only match vs Mir. But the threat of Mir's grappling made him the more effective striker.
And honestly, the gap in MMA striking isn't that wide between Israel and Tavares imo.
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Yes. You don't have to be Elon Musk to follow a gameplan ya?
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Tavares seems pretty thick. I'm not sure he won't just come in and try to prove he is the better striker. We see fighters fight dumb fights every week. Watch Tavares being interviewed - the guy doesn't look like he's got the highest IQ in the world to put it mildly.
I do think it's a dog or pass fight though.
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I heard Tavares interviewed on the Luke Thomas show and he honestly didn't strike me as being especially dumb. I mean, I'm not saying he sounded like he's gonna be doing the calculations for NASA when we send people to Mars, but he really sounded mostly like a normal guy to me. Granted, I maybe wasn't paying 100% attention.
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Oh I've seen him be interviewed. The ability to be well spoken doesn't really effect how you do come fight night. Magic Marlon doesn't sound like the smartest dude either and hes starched top 10 dudes his last two fights.
Brad is the better mma fighter all around. He'll be more than competitive on the feet and he's got 'murican 'rasslin and jiu jitsu in his back pocket plus a decently strong clinch game. There's really no justifiable reason why Stylebender was so favored. Dog money on Brad is a no brainer for me.
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Road trip! I'll bring sandwiches.
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To be fair, Adesanya has one KO/TKO loss in over 70 professional fights and he's been in there with some of the top kickboxers in the world. Alex Pereira (the guy who KO'd him) is the current Glory middleweight camp and homeboy can punch. If anyone has a suspect chin it's Brad Tavares. And Brad Tavares ain't KO'ing anyone, he has average punching power but he's not a finisher, he's a point fighter. 10 decisions, 2 KO's in UFCGood points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this? I think he might stay standing and try to beat Adesanya in a striking battle. I'm not sure about Tavares fight IQ. He comes across pretty dumb and he's had it real easy in his last few fights. This is a fight where there is a clear path to victory by mixing wrestling with striking but the guy doesn't come across as the smartest guy in the world.
Adesanya got starched last year. His chin is also suspect
I don't wanna say too much but I'm not particularly concerned with Tavares takedown threat either, Vettori was a bigger threat in that aspect. Adesanaya is not easy to takedown or hold down, he's only getting better too.
I think it's a little ignorant to say "he's getting smoked", if Tavares does pull of a win it will very likely be a competitive decision
I have not done business with Adesanaya yet but its quite possible that I do. And yet again I have generously given you all another expert opinion
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Israel's fairly easy to take down, and to hold onto. Vettori had a lot of success once he started shooting, and Wilkinson got him down with mediocre wrestling and essentially pure enthusiasm/aggression.
I do think Tavares is gonna shoot back out to +150 or so closer to the event, due to a lot of public money coming in on the man that urinates in the cage.
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Adesanya's takedown defense is pretty average for a UFC middleweight, it's not great but it's certainly not bad. He's really not that easy to take down and everytime he has been taken down he's found a way back to his feet.
Wilkinson is almost a pure grappler and his whole game is based on taking you down and attacking from top position. Sure Wilkinson is a scrub but he's a big strong middleweight and he went 3/15 on takedowns against Adesanya, could not hold him down at all.
Vettori went 2/6 on takedowns and had more success than Wilkinson did on that mat but he couldn't keep Adesanya down either, at least not for long. Adesanya knows what he's doing, his takedown defense is decent and his get ups are probably better than decent.
I disagree about your prediction on the line movement, gotta think these odds will only continue to close in, could end up as a pick'em.
And speaking of "public money" no one defines the public better than you Sherbros, you guys are the public. Maybe a handful of you are an exception but generally speaking that is a fact.
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Public's a bunch of Aussies who barely follow the sport, but recognize Israel's name. Your opinion means jack shit unless you've got something third-party tracked, or a collection of bet slips. Preferably both. Wilkinson's a shitty wrestleboxer from the Aussie regionals, even if wants to grapple, it's not something he's particularly good at in a UFC context. He also hit 40% of his TDs against Siyar, who was coming up in weight and coming off like a 30-month layoff.
Sherdog might not be a community where everybody's profitable, but I think you're underestimating the sheer amount of casual bettors in the ANZ/UK markets. I know guys who work in Aussie books, and sharp money is massively outweighed by casual hobbyists constantly. All a fighter needs is a mention or two in the mainstream news in the countries where sportsbetting is both legal and incredibly easy, and it can move the line.
Israel off his back against Vettori looked totally appalling based on his stiffness, he's essentially only saved by his length. Tavares' takedowns will also be different in context to Vettori's. Vettori had to try and advance position since he needed a finish in the third, Tavares just taking Israel down and maintaining guard-top will be enough to win a lot of rounds.
How the hell do you keep getting banned? Is it that hard to chat civilly?
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Got about 7u on Piechota @2.08 and I'm contemplating if I should freeroll or not, Meerschaert is up to 2.9 now and he'll probably close out even higher.
I know a lot of people in here went pretty big on Piechota at dog money, any of you freerolling or what do you guys think?
My gut feeling says let it ride, but it's a pretty significant amount I got on him, so I'm still thinking about this one.
I know a lot of people in here went pretty big on Piechota at dog money, any of you freerolling or what do you guys think?
My gut feeling says let it ride, but it's a pretty significant amount I got on him, so I'm still thinking about this one.
piglord
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yeah i'm now regretting going 1u at +160, should have been 2 or 3.
