TUF 27

yeah i'm now regretting going 1u at +160, should have been 2 or 3.
Yeah. I got a bit on at +152 which I like, but I am confident Tavares'll close a bit wider.
 
To be fair, Adesanya has one KO/TKO loss in over 70 professional fights and he's been in there with some of the top kickboxers in the world. Alex Pereira (the guy who KO'd him) is the current Glory middleweight camp and homeboy can punch. If anyone has a suspect chin it's Brad Tavares. And Brad Tavares ain't KO'ing anyone, he has average punching power but he's not a finisher, he's a point fighter. 10 decisions, 2 KO's in UFC

I don't wanna say too much but I'm not particularly concerned with Tavares takedown threat either, Vettori was a bigger threat in that aspect. Adesanaya is not easy to takedown or hold down, he's only getting better too.

I think it's a little ignorant to say "he's getting smoked", if Tavares does pull of a win it will very likely be a competitive decision

I have not done business with Adesanaya yet but its quite possible that I do. And yet again I have generously given you all another expert opinion

Tavares just got a KO of a better fighter arguably than anyone Israel has even faced. What makes you think a gassed Vettori in rd 3 holding down Israel and winning that rd shows Israel is "hard to take down and hold down"? And why would that exhausted version of Vettori be a bigger TD threat than Tavares?

I'm all for different perspectives, but ignoring evidence and then claiming your opinion as "expert" and being pompous...really man?

Yes, as I said Israel is at that point in his career where SOME guys make huge leaps between fights. That's absolutely possible here. And if he does, the juice is probably more than justified. But based on what we've actually SEEN lately, it isn't ignorant at all to think that the Brad we saw vs Jotko easily handles the Israel we saw vs Vettori.
 
I think if it wasn't for some bettors learning hard lessons about flashy kickboxers entering MMA (ahem...Diaklese) we'd for sure be getting +200 or better on Brad here.
 
Public's a bunch of Aussies who barely follow the sport, but recognize Israel's name. Your opinion means jack shit unless you've got something third-party tracked, or a collection of bet slips. Preferably both. Wilkinson's a shitty wrestleboxer from the Aussie regionals, even if wants to grapple, it's not something he's particularly good at in a UFC context. He also hit 40% of his TDs against Siyar, who was coming up in weight and coming off like a 30-month layoff.

Sherdog might not be a community where everybody's profitable, but I think you're underestimating the sheer amount of casual bettors in the ANZ/UK markets. I know guys who work in Aussie books, and sharp money is massively outweighed by casual hobbyists constantly. All a fighter needs is a mention or two in the mainstream news in the countries where sportsbetting is both legal and incredibly easy, and it can move the line.

Israel off his back against Vettori looked totally appalling based on his stiffness, he's essentially only saved by his length. Tavares' takedowns will also be different in context to Vettori's. Vettori had to try and advance position since he needed a finish in the third, Tavares just taking Israel down and maintaining guard-top will be enough to win a lot of rounds.

How the hell do you keep getting banned? Is it that hard to chat civilly?
I get what you're saying but guys like you are also the public, if you bet 2-3 figures thats public money. Sharp money is intelligent BIG money, at least 4 figures per play.

I'll let the don explain some 101 for all you rooks.
 
Tavares just got a KO of a better fighter arguably than anyone Israel has even faced. What makes you think a gassed Vettori in rd 3 holding down Israel and winning that rd shows Israel is "hard to take down and hold down"? And why would that exhausted version of Vettori be a bigger TD threat than Tavares?

I'm all for different perspectives, but ignoring evidence and then claiming your opinion as "expert" and being pompous...really man?

Yes, as I said Israel is at that point in his career where SOME guys make huge leaps between fights. That's absolutely possible here. And if he does, the juice is probably more than justified. But based on what we've actually SEEN lately, it isn't ignorant at all to think that the Brad we saw vs Jotko easily handles the Israel we saw vs Vettori.
OMG
 
Got about 7u on Piechota @2.08 and I'm contemplating if I should freeroll or not, Meerschaert is up to 2.9 now and he'll probably close out even higher.

I know a lot of people in here went pretty big on Piechota at dog money, any of you freerolling or what do you guys think?

My gut feeling says let it ride, but it's a pretty significant amount I got on him, so I'm still thinking about this one.

I have 3u at +133 and am more than happy keeping it. If I were in your shoes I would arb down to 5u, as I think that should be anyones max bet unless you are extremely confident, at which point I dont think you would be contemplating freerolling lol. So yeah I would arb down to 5u at a better price, or arb even lower depending on your confidence level.
 
I get what you're saying but guys like you are also the public, if you bet 2-3 figures thats public money. Sharp money is intelligent BIG money, at least 4 figures per play.

I'll let the don explain some 101 for all you rooks.


Technically sharp money is defined as getting the best of the line.
 
I have 3u at +133 and am more than happy keeping it. If I were in your shoes I would arb down to 5u, as I think that should be anyones max bet unless you are extremely confident, at which point I dont think you would be contemplating freerolling lol. So yeah I would arb down to 5u at a better price, or arb even lower depending on your confidence level.
I went 7u on it because I knew the line would be going down shortly after and I could get some free money out of it by freerolling. But now after watching more tape I'm actually quiet confident in Piechota here so I think I'm just going to arb a bit, haven't decided how much though but definitely not confident enough to risk the full 7u here.
 
I went 7u on it because I knew the line would be going down shortly after and I could get some free money out of it by freerolling. But now after watching more tape I'm actually quiet confident in Piechota here so I think I'm just going to arb a bit, haven't decided how much yet though.

At that price it's worth a max bet (5u), too many question marks on Pie to break 5u imo. His volume and cardio are my biggest concerns, but he'll have the advantage in speed, power, footwork, and grappling.
 
At that price it's worth a max bet (5u), too many question marks on Pie to break 5u imo. His volume and cardio are my biggest concerns, but he'll have the advantage in speed, power, footwork, and grappling.
Yeah I agree, will probably arb a bit so I'm only risking 3-5u here.
 
Technically sharp money is defined as getting the best of the line.
Prettymuch. There's a difference between sharp money in the sense of 'Money the books have to respond to via moving the line', which is when +EV's combined with value, and just 'bets that are +EV'. Non-sharp bets can move lines, look at the Conor clusterfuck last year. Books have to hedge risk and take advantage of public sentiment even when it'd require exposing themselves to +EV bettors. The question is whether they can pick the public's pockets for enough dollars to justify that exposure.

And that random youtube video just seems like a con artist trying to add a layer of mysticism to persuade the public to pay for his picks, which'd make no sense to a guy putting on his purported volume. It's like Dan Blizerian trying to explain that his Trust Fund money came from backroom billion-dollar Pai Gow games, and not from daddy's corporate raiding.
 
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Does arguing with mma gambling expert get a little old to you guys? Seems frustrating.
 
Does arguing with mma gambling expert get a little old to you guys? Seems frustrating.

He's @Dianabol now right?

Yeah he's going almost full on ass-clown right about now. I like solid back and forth with good posters when we disagree about a fight. I find myself probably digging my heels in more than I should, but I consciously try to keep an open mind and be receptive to new info or a different perspective. I think it makes for better capping for sure. For example @t6p has made some very valid points regarding upcoming fights that I probably didn't consider enough.

But MMA Gambling Expert (under his new ID) seems to be veering toward just wanting to act like a pompous turd.
 
Brad Tavares

-resides in LA now so makes life much more easier and to head line a card is massive for him
-miscommunication and misinformation between ufc medical staff and himself, they jumped the gun was an old existing image
of an x-ray and they saw the broken bone. The MRI techs wrote what they saw and that caused the misinformation and they
did not speak to himself or the ufc pi medical team.
-never once said was injured or could not fight
-is 100% fighting
-the whole saga is all behind him now, will go into the fight and show is 100% but does say all fighters have a hiccup
in terms of sickness or injuries so are never 100% really.
-had slight food poisioning in camp but now thru it and better.
-opponent israel has never fought someone on the level as himself, claims when he
says his last opponent (Vettori) not better then brad, is totally wrong.
-wanted the bisping fight but didnt get it
-respects israel knows hes tough and only the best get there, had
a good record in kickboxing but he is the better fighter, nothing
to fear at all from anything he brings to the table.
-spends time and work into the gym, constantly fighting and grinding
and going hard so injuries are going to happen, says back up
guys should always exist for when fighters pull out at times.
 
Some things to consider regarding Tavares....

Even when guys have better wrestling, if they don't have experience looking for takedowns in fights, it's usually tough for them to do so. As a result may have to use a lot of energy to get Adesanya down, which isn't good given that his striking style requires a lot more energy and this is a 5 rounder.

Stylistic matchup is pretty bad for him. In my opinion the line is about right... if anything it's a favorite or pass.
 
Some things to consider regarding Tavares....

Even when guys have better wrestling, if they don't have experience looking for takedowns in fights, it's usually tough for them to do so. As a result may have to use a lot of energy to get Adesanya down, which isn't good given that his striking style requires a lot more energy and this is a 5 rounder.

Stylistic matchup is pretty bad for him. In my opinion the line is about right... if anything it's a favorite or pass.

Fair points for sure. I think Brad will need to get a bit of respect striking and then hit the TD. If he secures one and makes Israel work off his back, that will sap Israel's gas tank much more than Brad's. But I agree with you that if Brad is hunting the TD and not getting it or using a ton of energy to get it he could be in trouble late in the fight.

He has a better gas tank than Vettori for sure, but you're right in that with this being 5 rds he's gonna need it.
 
He's @Dianabol now right?

Yeah he's going almost full on ass-clown right about now. I like solid back and forth with good posters when we disagree about a fight. I find myself probably digging my heels in more than I should, but I consciously try to keep an open mind and be receptive to new info or a different perspective. I think it makes for better capping for sure. For example @t6p has made some very valid points regarding upcoming fights that I probably didn't consider enough.

But MMA Gambling Expert (under his new ID) seems to be veering toward just wanting to act like a pompous turd.
I totally get trying to get a perspective from others. You cant see every angle yourself so it's nice to bounce ideas off of one another but a you watch the conversation unfold it just seems like people are chasing their tails and end up getting upset.

Dont get me wrong I don't have any animosity toward the dude. I think he has great insight sometimes however it's hard to get past the you guys suck i'm the best shtick.

Idk I'm not trying to tell anyone what to do and I'm 100% a casual gambler, but they say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result eh?
 
I totally get trying to get a perspective from others. You cant see every angle yourself so it's nice to bounce ideas off of one another but a you watch the conversation unfold it just seems like people are chasing their tails and end up getting upset.

Dont get me wrong I don't have any animosity toward the dude. I think he has great insight sometimes however it's hard to get past the you guys suck i'm the best shtick.

Idk I'm not trying to tell anyone what to do and I'm 100% a casual gambler, but they say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result eh?

That's the thing: when you trumpet that cocky nonsense and try to talk down to people, you KNOW the way it will be received. Which means you just want to irritate everyone. Which isn't what this forum is supposed to be about.

It's not like he's sitting there stunned that people are annoyed by his schtick. He knows what he's doing. I guess you're right in that it falls on us to ignore him when he gets like that. But man, I don't have time to track every new acct he creates LOL.
 
That's the thing: when you trumpet that cocky nonsense and try to talk down to people, you KNOW the way it will be received. Which means you just want to irritate everyone. Which isn't what this forum is supposed to be about.

It's not like he's sitting there stunned that people are annoyed by his schtick. He knows what he's doing. I guess you're right in that it falls on us to ignore him when he gets like that. But man, I don't have time to track every new acct he creates LOL.
Haha I getcha. It just bums me out that a lot of good guys have stopped coming here because of flame wars and things like that.
 
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