TUF 28 Finale RDA vs Usman

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[Naught2Sixty]

Mannn missed some good openers it looks like. Idk how Caraway beats Munhoz tbh. Hes not fast enough and doesn't have to footwork to keep Munhoz away and if he keeps shooting td's hes gonna get that neck snatched. Gimme like +250 on Caraway and that'll be my in.

Do you get to be highly favored if your name is Shevchenko? Antonina isnt nearly as polished as her "sister". Kim suffers from activity anxiety though. Just really looking to land the same punches over and over and that hair makes her look like shes getting hit harder than she is. Kim probably loses a close decision here.

Benevidez +100 LOL. C'mon I know I've been one saying that Joe B is on a decline but even if hes a tier or two below his prime he would still smoke every dude Perez has fought imo. Hope this line gets better.

Glenn sucks and Aguilar is pretty good. Been following him in LFA for awhile. Hes surprised me a lot. I'm allergic to juice though but I might pay this -175

+240 for fading the dirty bird seems fair. Eh. Probably pass here. I dont know enough about Rainey other than the king of spin did his spin thing.

 

[Dianabol]

Kevin Aguilar may be more unathletic than Rick Glenn

Aguilar got the 15-1 record but I'm so unimpressed with Aguilar on DWTNCS, looked like a scrub. I can see he's got wins over solid guys like Than Le and Damon Jackson which is surprising, I need to watch those fights. I'm looking to fade this guy though, don't think he'll make it in the UFC

 

[GrantSorenson]

I'm not sure munhoz vs caraway is as straightforward as it seems. munhoz doesn't seem to have any td defence really as he doesn't mind going to the ground. the way caraway shoots it looks to me like he's not going to get snatched in a guillotene plus he's a pretty high level grappler. could he control munhoz on the ground enough to win rounds? hes also tough as hell on the feet, though fairly limited but game. i aint paying that juice on pedro

 

[Oblivian]

Kevin Aguilar may be more unathletic than Rick Glenn

Aguilar got the 15-1 record but I'm so unimpressed with Aguilar on DWTNCS, looked like a scrub. I can see he's got wins over solid guys like Than Le and Damon Jackson which is surprising, I need to watch those fights. I'm looking to fade this guy though, don't think he'll make it in the UFC

Aguilar was up a weight class and on short notice. Aguilar winning over Jackson and Le was not surprising to me at all.

 

[Gugabe]

I'm not sure munhoz vs caraway is as straightforward as it seems. munhoz doesn't seem to have any td defence really as he doesn't mind going to the ground. the way caraway shoots it looks to me like he's not going to get snatched in a guillotene plus he's a pretty high level grappler. could he control munhoz on the ground enough to win rounds? hes also tough as hell on the feet, though fairly limited but game. i aint paying that juice on pedro

Yeah. Munhoz very willing to jump guillotines, which could be all that Caraway needs to ride out a ho-hum decision. Caraway's not exactly a slouch on the ground, and Munhoz has real fight IQ issues.

RDA wins against Usman by late KO or submission.

 

[Jordan3399]

Really like RDA at these odds. Being southpaw vs orthodox will make controlling range and striking far easier for him plus he knows the adjustments he needs to make from the Covington fight now. Not convinced Usman will be able to constantly march him down and absorb punishment like Colby could for 25 minutes.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I favor Usman to win but I went with RDA at +254. I think that should be way closer.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Yeah. Munhoz very willing to jump guillotines, which could be all that Caraway needs to ride out a ho-hum decision. Caraway's not exactly a slouch on the ground, and Munhoz has real fight IQ issues.

RDA wins against Usman by late KO or submission.

Agreed. RDA lands his kicks progressively as the fight goes on which weaken Usman and he either starts shooting sloppy or just plain gets hurt from strikes. I hated this match for Usman when I heard of it because he's got a SPEED DISADVANTAGE HERE. His hands and his feet are slower and he's a way lower level striker. Outside of Usman using a kamikaze style of really trying to emulate Colbys aggression, I don't see him winning. He is going to give RDA too much time and if he gets hurt at all once in the fight then RDA will take control because Usman will be even more reluctant. This feels like a horrible match up for Usman

Mandatory bet on RDA at dog odds and RDA sub + late round props.

 

[Dianabol]

History would tell you that RDA is going to lose this fight

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I'm looking to fade this guy though, don't think he'll make it in the UFC

I'll be honest I watched just 2 mins of his fight with Tony Kelly, was not impressed at all. Why Glenn is such an underdog? I know he sucks too but come on! Line should be closer. I'll watch more of Aguilar and write then.

i aint paying that juice on pedro

Agree.

Not convinced Usman will be able to constantly march him down and absorb punishment like Colby could for 25 minutes.

Colby didn't absorb much punishment other than some knees in the clinch and other short shots. RDA was never any threat on the counter, won't become in this fight.

History would tell you that RDA is going to lose this fight

I agree. But I think forum is right to be suspicious of Usman and he is the big favourite here. RDA struggles with other in nature pressure fighters, or fighters that just fought him in that way just to mess with his game. Other than Eddie, who just nailed him with a good counter, most fighters that managed to beat him or be in a close contest with RDA, were using physicality, being in his face the whole time, never let their foot off the gas. You can see RDA has a little bully mentality in him. I like him as a fighter (Khabib had a lot of praises for him, in his opinion Cowboy and RDA are the best LWs after him) but when he can't grab you, push you to the fence, and just be in total control of the fight, he lets the doubt creep in and little by little he gives up. He still fights, but it's not to win anymore.
I can't trust Usman is going to fight him the right way. Never saw him shut down a pressure fighter before. His best win so far (in my opinion) is Leon Edwards, who is just letting the fight come to him and deal with it then. Don't talk to me about Alves, who was obliterated by a lightweight, or Strickland, or even Maia. In the end of the day Usman is with Henry Hooft, who's fighters underperform on a regular basis. We are talking Rockhold, Lawler, Skelly, MJ... the list goes on. I don't trust this guy, never was and never will. He makes good one round fighters, though. I would like to see Mike Perry with him!

 

[Dianabol]

I'll be honest I watched just 2 mins of his fight with Tony Kelly, was not impressed at all. Why Glenn is such an underdog? I know he sucks too but come on! Line should be closer. I'll watch more of Aguilar and write then. Agree.
Colby didn't absorb much punishment other than some knees in the clinch and other short shots. RDA was never any threat on the counter, won't become in this fight. I agree. But I think forum is right to be suspicious of Usman and he is the big favourite here. RDA struggles with other in nature pressure fighters, or fighters that just fought him in that way just to mess with his game. Other than Eddie, who just nailed him with a good counter, most fighters that managed to beat him or be in a close contest with RDA, were using physicality, being in his face the whole time, never let their foot off the gas. You can see RDA has a little bully mentality in him. I like him as a fighter (Khabib had a lot of praises for him, in his opinion Cowboy and RDA are the best LWs after him) but when he can't grab you, push you to the fence, and just be in total control of the fight, he lets the doubt creep in and little by little he gives up. He still fights, but it's not to win anymore.
I can't trust Usman is going to fight him the right way. Never saw him shut down a pressure fighter before. His best win so far (in my opinion) is Leon Edwards, who is just letting the fight come to him and deal with it then. Don't talk to me about Alves, who was obliterated by a lightweight, or Strickland, or even Maia. In the end of the day Usman is with Henry Hooft, who's fighters underperform on a regular basis. We are talking Rockhold, Lawler, Skelly, MJ... the list goes on. I don't trust this guy, never was and never will. He makes good one round fighters, though. I would like to see Mike Perry with him!

Yeah I watch a bunch more tape on Aguilar today, he looks a lot better in his LFA than his DWTNCS fight. But still he's not particularly impressive, just well rounded, tough and he pushes a pace. I wouldn't pick him to beat many UFC FW's

Him vs Glenn is tricky though, I do expect a split decision.

And regarding Usman vs RDA, I think it should be lined closer but I believe Usman wins, I don't trust RDA vs superior wrestlers, period

 

[MMAOracle]

just on paper, this should be the outcome
RDA vs Usman ---> Usman win
Munhoz vs Caraway ----> Caraway wins
Stewart vs Shahbazyan ----> Stewart wins
Kim vs Shevchenko ---> Kim wins

Obviously this is so flawed since I didnt watch their tapes yet. But if history serves any weight at all in this universe, these are your winners. But once again, this is a shit prediction since I haven't watched the tape yet. Will let you know once I review them. (step 1/3)

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I don't trust RDA vs superior wrestlers

Tony is not a superior wrestler and still beat him. Dianabol, it's not so much about being a superior wrestler (and use it to take him down) as much as using wrestling to ease the pressure RDA puts on you. I remembered picking Edward to beat him because he can defend TD's (note, I know Eddie is not good enough to take RDA down, but can defend RDA's attempts) and is good on the counter (and because he was underdog TBH). Why that is so much important here?

Because in the past, RDA dealt with pressure from the opponent by going for the TD (he won the 4th v Colby with TDs, remember?), he can't move well laterelly and pivot (and strike in the same time), these are just complicated movements to absorb and learn and most fighters don't bother to waste time in the practice room. RDA's anti-pressure tool is using his own takedowns. If he can't take you down, he can't freely pressure you, unless you let him (on purpose like Eddie did). His pressure footwork is nice, but on his backfoot he first does not counter, second his headmovement and lateral movement are close to non excistant (he mostly covers up with high guard). Jacare dealt much better with the pressure Weidman put on him. Yes, he has power in his counters that ease the pressure a little, not like RDA, but he is working much harder to avoid being on the fence or near it.

he's not particularly impressive, just well rounded, tough and he pushes a pace. I wouldn't pick him to beat many UFC FW's

I think is one of these "mirror matches" where we have two dudes that wants to do the same, but one has done it a lot longer and is better at it. Like Elkins vs Skelly was.

 

[Dianabol]

Tony is not a superior wrestler and still beat him. Dianabol, it's not so much about being a superior wrestler (and use it to take him down) as much as using wrestling to ease the pressure RDA puts on you. I remembered picking Edward to beat him because he can defend TD's (note, I know Eddie is not good enough to take RDA down, but can defend RDA's attempts) and is good on the counter (and because he was underdog TBH). Why that is so much important here?

Because in the past, RDA dealt with pressure from the opponent by going for the TD (he won the 4th v Colby with TDs, remember?), he can't move well laterelly and pivot (and strike in the same time), these are just complicated movements to absorb and learn and most fighters don't bother to waste time in the practice room. RDA's anti-pressure tool is using his own takedowns. If he can't take you down, he can't freely pressure you, unless you let him (on purpose like Eddie did). His pressure footwork is nice, but on his backfoot he first does not counter, second his headmovement and lateral movement are close to non excistant (he mostly covers up with high guard). Jacare dealt much better with the pressure Weidman put on him. Yes, he has power in his counters that ease the pressure a little, not like RDA, but he is working much harder to avoid being on the fence or near it.

I think is one of these "mirror matches" where we have two dudes that wants to do the same, but one has done it a lot longer and is better at it. Like Elkins vs Skelly was.

Yes I agree, RDA seems most comfortable being the pressure fighter but he struggles when he's the one getting pressured. Usman will be the one moving forward most of the time I think, moving RDA to the fence and then taking him down. I also think Usman has better top control than Colby, it'll be harder for RDA to get up.

I has huge on Colby vs RDA but that was at a much better price than what is offered for Usman.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Usman will be the one moving forward most of the time I think

Do you trust him to do it, tho? Colby is not scared of anything and I know he'll push and push and push. Usman I don't know... He is giving me one of these athlete-fighters vibes. You know what I mean. It's one thing to be put in a favourable match-up, it's another thing to win it.

I also think Usman has better top control than Colby, it'll be harder for RDA to get up.

Khabib had the best top control out of all wrestlers Dos Anjos has fought, and still had hard time keeping him down. Yes, he is a lot smaller than Usman, but I think we saw RDA vs very good wrestlers and he is not easy task at all. I have to watch more tape about this particular point of the fight, but don't think this will be the deciding factor.

Whatever it is, there is zero point in betting Usman giving his odds. And betting on Rafael is not good either, when we know that he more or less has no good options (he has options in theory, but he have to transform his style and he can't - too old for that shit, he can improve what he has, though) but to bullshit Usman to give him the fight he wants.

 

[Gugabe]

It's not like Colby completely ran through RDA, anyway. It was a competitive 48-47, it wasn't RDA-Pettis. Colby would have lost that fight if he hadn't come out for the fifth round like a house on fire.

 

[Oblivian]

I think the RDA/Usman line is way off.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Do you get to be highly favored if your name is Shevchenko?

Apparently. But UFC's matchmaking shows us how they just can't seem to understand how you showcase a new talent. You don't give her some 8-1 fighter in her debut (and who has UFC experience in addition to that). You gotta give her the lowest of the lowest opponents, somebody that makes UFC debut too. Nobody will say shit. That is the correct way. Yeah she should beat Kim, but it's not a guarantee number 1, and number 2 Kim is going to make her look unimpressive most likely.

Kim probably loses a close decision here.

I agree

Antonina isn't nearly as polished as her "sister".

Half sister? She seems to lack the athletic ability of Val, much slower and weaker than her. (and she is not young, she is in her mid 30's)She does not have her ground game either. Just waiting and sniping at the opponent coming in, while not having an athletic edge and lack of dangerous ground game in the women divisions, does not inspire cofidence in me. This is trying to make pretty looking fighting style to work in WMMA. This shit don't fly here, unless you are Joanna or Valentina. I think this, but could be wrong.

(bet on Kim is not too stupid here, odds are crazy! I myself bet on her against Kish, was fading Kish TBH and she made me sweat it, if Kish was fighting little smarter and went for TD's as she did in all of her UFC fights, this would be her fight without any doubt, but I saw her talking in interviews how she is respecting Kim ground game and the odds swayed me, hah)

 

[zeckdo]

Apparently. But UFC's matchmaking shows us how they just can't seem to understand how you showcase a new talent. You don't give her some 8-1 fighter in her debut (and who has UFC experience in addition to that). You gotta give her the lowest of the lowest opponents, somebody that makes UFC debut too. Nobody will say shit. That is the correct way. Yeah she should beat Kim, but it's not a guarantee number 1, and number 2 Kim is going to make her look unimpressive most likely.I agree
Half sister? She seems to lack the athletic ability of Val, much slower and weaker than her. (and she is not young, she is in her mid 30's)She does not have her ground game either. Just waiting and sniping at the opponent coming in, while not having an athletic edge and lack of dangerous ground game in the women divisions, does not inspire cofidence in me. This is trying to make pretty looking fighting style to work in WMMA. This shit don't fly here, unless you are Joanna or Valentina. I think this, but could be wrong.

(bet on Kim is not too stupid here, odds are crazy! I myself bet on her against Kish, was fading Kish TBH and she made me sweat it, if Kish was fighting little smarter and went for TD's as she did in all of her UFC fights, this would be her fight without any doubt, but I saw her talking in interviews how she is respecting Kim ground game and the odds swayed me, hah)

I bet her against Kish too, that was a gift of a decision. wayyy too little skill and too much unknown about this fight, clear pass beyond a small play on the dog.