Turkey, the Kurds, and Syria(Kurds Reach Afrin Deal with Syrian Government Forces)

[Andy Capp]

I think this moves Erdogan close to the top in most categories in that other thread.

 

[MicroBrew]

*dissent
Which I mention only because it was genuinely confusing until I realized what you intended.

I think this moves Erdogan close to the top in most categories in that other thread.

Thanks , am fixing the typo now.
Not sure what happened there, I just clicked on the autocorrect and didn't check to see the change.

 

[Squish II]

The only good thing to come out of Erdogan gaining power are his purges of the Gulenists

 

[Squish II]

Time to stop being lazy. I'm so behind on the updates that I still haven't caught up to the events currently happening, mainly concerning the US-SAA confrontation in Deir Ezzor and the Israeli jet shootdown situation.

Turkish backed forces in Afrin in a video with a slain female fighter who appears to have her breats cut off.

Confirmation today:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ed-by-turkey-backed-rebels-idUSKBN1FM2LX?il=0
Fucking disgusting.

I call bullshit on that claim. Is it something that could happen? Definitely, but in this instance it's propaganda by Kurdish media and Reuters seems to be pushing the same narrative. When this first happened the video wouldn't load for me but now it does, and it shows that the ypg fighter was killed by an explosion. Her breasts weren't cut off, they were disfigured by the explosion. A FSA fighter steps on where her breast used be for some reason and then he gets told off. The video is ~10 seconds long and I can pm it if you want to check yourself but its NSFL.

AT-5 manages to find a tank not made of cardboard.

edit: CNN Turk reports 5 soldiers "martyred" when tank struck by ATGM.



Another one strikes a vehicle next to what I assume to be a border outpost.

What a huge explosion. That's must be one of the biggest tank explosions in the war.

Rebels caught a truck on route to Afrin with a rather large shipment of ATGMs and other weapons. Could be from anyone really.

Turkish Leopard destoyed by a ATGM hit.

Turkish Patton destroyed.

I read someone's estimation that the ypg must have 200-300 atgms. I can believe that they are buying more or getting them transferred to Afrin from Rojava.

Lots of fighters deployed from SDF held eastern Syria to Afrin including Yazidi militias.

Syriac Military council also arrived. I wonder how many fighters have come. The US has said that any groups who go to Afrin lose US support and will have to give back their supplied weapons.

A Turkish ATAK helicopter crashed in Hatay after being shot down with a MANPAD. Both pilots died.


Civilian convoy evacuating elderly and children from Afrin. All the video shows though is a long line of empty vehicles so its not really proof.




2000 civilians or 2000 fighters?
http://theregion.org/article/12766-ypg-says-2-000-civilians-not-fighters-travelled-to-afrin

The people who control the border crossings in this war sure get to make a lot of money.


I've skimmed these humanitarian reports and I think that the only IDP's allowed to leave Afrin were people who weren't originally from there. I will give these a proper read later. Posting for anyone else who wants to read them.
https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian...pments-northwestern-syria-idleb-governorate-0
https://www.humanitarianresponse.in...elopments_in_north-western_syria_20180130.pdf
https://www.humanitarianresponse.in...nts_in_north-western_syria_20180207_final.pdf

FSA buries the bodies of YPG fighters after Islamic funeral rites


EDIT: Forgot this. It's funny how they feel the need to yell Allah Akbar while destroying bottles. If they cant enjoy alcohol they want to make sure nobody can.




I think this is the second FSA technical that has been destroyed with an atgm


Guy in the video says the APC was destroyed by a mine

Not good.

US military strikes pro-regime forces in Syria after coming under attack

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/02/07/politics/us-strikes-pro-regime-forces-syria/index.html

(CNN)The US-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria conducted strikes against pro-regime forces in Syria Wednesday, the coalition said in a statement.

The coalition said the strikes were carried out after forces allied to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "initiated an unprovoked attack" against a well-established Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters where coalition advisers were working with US-backed Syrian fighters.

A US official told CNN that the attackers crossed the Euphrates River and were armed with artillery and other weapons. The US official said that US forces in the region counterattacked using artillery and aircraft.

(CNN)The US-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria conducted strikes against pro-regime forces in Syria Wednesday, the coalition said in a statement.

The coalition said the strikes were carried out after forces allied to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "initiated an unprovoked attack" against a well-established Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters where coalition advisers were working with US-backed Syrian fighters.

A US official told CNN that the attackers crossed the Euphrates River and were armed with artillery and other weapons. The US official said that US forces in the region counterattacked using artillery and aircraft.


The official added that no US personnel were killed or wounded in the engagement.

The official added that it was unclear exactly who the pro-regime forces were but the US is looking into whether Russian contractors operating in the vicinity might have been involved but added that there is no direct evidence yet that the Russians fired on the Syrian Democratic Forces facility where the US advisers were located. The official said they have not ruled out that Iranian backed-forces might have also been involved in the attack.

"In defense of coalition and partner forces, the coalition conducted strikes against attacking forces to repel the act of aggression against partners engaged in the Global Coalition's defeat-Daesh mission," the coalition statement said, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS.

The coalition said the attack took place in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, eight kilometers east of the agreed upon "de-confliction" line which is designed to separate Russian-backed regime troops and US-backed forces in Syria.

I haven't really been paying attention to the conflict lately so I will look into this more. At a glance what people have said happened was that a 500 strong force of SAA "ISIS Hunters" backed by tanks and artillery was directlly headed to Conoco (the oil company?) and was attacked in response. The SAA losses range from 25-215 and seem to include Russian PMC's. Like I said I will look into this later to better understand what happned.

An Israeli Jet was shot down after conducting airstrikes in Syria and crashed in the Golan heights. The pilots ejected and one is in hospital in serious condition. A pro syrian twitter user claims he has passed. The incident started when an Iranian drone was shot down in the Golan heights and Israel launched sorties in response. I think now they are launching cruise missles and maybe further airstrikes against Syria. I'll update on this some time later. I already spent ages compiling the Afrin section of this post and am burned out on Syria related stuff for now.

 

[Seaside]

The Turkish government, has criminalized dissent , arresting those who are publicly critical of the Turkish military offensive in Syria.

The leftwing HDP party is pro minority rights , egalitarian and pro feminism. The party is allied with the Kurdish DBP party. The leader of the HDP criticized the Turkish offensive in Afrin Syria, resulting in the Erdogan gov. issuing an arrest warrant for his arrest.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkey-orders-arrest-pro-kurdish-party-leader-agency-093940819.html

Erdogan again showing his ethnic tribal agenda. He is an ethnic Turk nationalist, who sees the Kurds as a threat. Being an Islamist does not preclude one from being a racial / ethnic nationalist. Both the Allies and the Germans were White supremacist but they still couldn't agree on who gets control over what. In the same way, the secular military regime that ruled Turkey were Turkish nationalists, but so to is Erdogan.

The MiddleEast ain't going to do away with its ethnic and sectarian chauvinism within our lifetimes. Turkey is a country with a MiddleEastern mindset. Turkey's support for Erdogan exposed Western delusions about Turkey. Europe has to be dumber than dumb and suicidal to let Turkey inside the gates. Instead of Western Europe changing the tribal mindset of the Turks, the Turks and other MENA folk will change Western Europe , forcing Western Europe to regress to time when clannishness and tribalism was the norm. So called anti-racists and Muslims within Europe will scream "racism" and "Islamophobia" while hypocritically advocating for a xenophobic and racist mindset.

With the high Kurdish birthrate (relative to non-Kurds in Turkey), the greedy Turks may have to contend sharing all of Turkey with the Kurds, because they can't stand an independent Kurdistan. Sort of like Israel; where Israeli greed for the West Bank has pretty much destroyed an independent Palestine. Resulting in Israel having to accept the Palestinians inside a single Israeli state. Malaysia on the other hand did the smart thing and allowed ethnic Chinese majority Singapore to break away.

Do you forget population transfer? Turks have done it before are experts at it. Will be hard though so many turkeys kurds. Does Erdogan want them to obey him or her want them expelled?

Also Turkey is in Nato wow

 

[Islam Imamate]

In some ways I think Erdogan is just the natural consequence of Turkish strongman politics most embodied in the likes of Ataturk who himself was not exactly very keen on tolerating dissent. Notice how he's not only marginalized the Kurds but he's even eclipsed his own party. The guy's out for himself.

 

[HomerThompson]

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - A Turkish army helicopter was shot down by Syrian Kurdish YPG fighters near the north Syrian town of Afrin, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday and the Turkish military said two soldiers on board the aircraft died.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ia-in-syrias-afrin-erdogan-idUSKBN1FU0M3?il=0

 

[MicroBrew]

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - A Turkish army helicopter was shot down by Syrian Kurdish YPG fighters near the north Syrian town of Afrin, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday and the Turkish military said two soldiers on board the aircraft died.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ia-in-syrias-afrin-erdogan-idUSKBN1FU0M3?il=0

It was Allah's will !

 

[MicroBrew]

Do you forget population transfer? Turks have done it before are experts at it. Will be hard though so many turkeys kurds. Does Erdogan want them to obey him or her want them expelled?

Also Turkey is in Nato wow

In this day and age and considering the Kurdish population, Turkey can't do it.
Besides where are they going to send all those Kurds to? Iran, Iraq, Syria will not take them.

Nope, the Turks are stuck with an ever growing Kurdish population. Serves them Turks right. Both the Turks and the Israelis deserve to lose their cherished ethnonationalist majoritarian democracy. Both love to lecture the West on racism and tolerance, so they deserve to get their comeuppance.

 

[MicroBrew]

In some ways I think Erdogan is just the natural consequence of Turkish strongman politics most embodied in the likes of Ataturk who himself was not exactly very keen on tolerating dissent. Notice how he's not only marginalized the Kurds but he's even eclipsed his own party. The guy's out for himself.

He can be out for himself and out for ethnic Turkish interests. Erdogan has been imploring Turks to get their birthrate up.
Erdogan like the Taleban are ethnic supremacists, using Islam to achieve their agenda.

 

[HomerThompson]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...yrian-kurds-against-turkey-idUSKBN1FV078?il=0

 

[ICHEERTHEBULL]

DAMASCUS, Feb. 12 (Xinhua) -- The Turkish military campaign against Syria's Kurdish-controlled Afrin enclave in northern Syria has so far killed 180 civilians and wounded 413 others, according to a statement released Monday by the Kurdish forces.

The civilian causalities include women, children and elderly people, the statement said, adding that the names of the wounded and dead are documented in the Afrin hospital.

It added that the Turkish campaign, which started on Jan. 20 against Afrin, killed 98 fighters with the Kurdish-led forces.

As for the Turkish side and the allied Syrian rebels fighting against the Kurdish forces in Afrin, the statement said 862 fighters of the Turkey-backed forces were killed.

The statement said the Turkish air force carried out 668 airstrikes on Afrin, adding that the Turkey-backed forces carried out as many as 2,645 "random attacks" with various weaponry.

It said that the Kurdish-led forces succeeded to shoot down two Turkish helicopters and two drones, killing 11 Turkish soldiers.

The Kurdish forces also destroyed 51 armored vehicles and damaged 15 others, the statement added.

Since Jan. 20, Turkish troops, together with allied Syrian rebels, have been conducting a cross-border military operation in a bid to drive the Kurdish militiamen out of Afrin.

Citing the need to protect its national security, Turkey launched the cross-border "Operation Olive Branch" in Afrin in January to oust the fighters of the Kurdish People's Protection Units, regarded by Ankara as the Syrian affiliate of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party, which has been fighting for autonomy in the southeast of Turkey.

A recent UN report said at least 15,000 people have been displaced since the start of the Turkish military operation against Kurdish fighters in Afrin.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/13/c_136970746.htm

 

[HomerThompson]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...syrian-army-to-enter-afrin-idUSKCN1G20QB?il=0

 

[godking]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...syrian-army-to-enter-afrin-idUSKCN1G20QB?il=0

Assad has been consistently outplaying Turkey the US and Saudi Arabia for years now holding a weaker hand.

Looks likes Turkey's invasion is gonna end soon.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Time to stop being lazy. I'm so behind on the updates that I still haven't caught up to the events currently happening, mainly concerning the US-SAA confrontation in Deir Ezzor and the Israeli jet shootdown situation.



I call bullshit on that claim. Is it something that could happen? Definitely, but in this instance it's propaganda by Kurdish media and Reuters seems to be pushing the same narrative. When this first happened the video wouldn't load for me but now it does, and it shows that the ypg fighter was killed by an explosion. Her breasts weren't cut off, they were disfigured by the explosion. A FSA fighter steps on where her breast used be for some reason and then he gets told off. The video is ~10 seconds long and I can pm it if you want to check yourself but its NSFL.


What a huge explosion. That's must be one of the biggest tank explosions in the war.


I read someone's estimation that the ypg must have 200-300 atgms. I can believe that they are buying more or getting them transferred to Afrin from Rojava.


Syriac Military council also arrived. I wonder how many fighters have come. The US has said that any groups who go to Afrin lose US support and will have to give back their supplied weapons.

A Turkish ATAK helicopter crashed in Hatay after being shot down with a MANPAD. Both pilots died.


Civilian convoy evacuating elderly and children from Afrin. All the video shows though is a long line of empty vehicles so its not really proof.




2000 civilians or 2000 fighters?
http://theregion.org/article/12766-ypg-says-2-000-civilians-not-fighters-travelled-to-afrin

The people who control the border crossings in this war sure get to make a lot of money.


I've skimmed these humanitarian reports and I think that the only IDP's allowed to leave Afrin were people who weren't originally from there. I will give these a proper read later. Posting for anyone else who wants to read them.
https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian...pments-northwestern-syria-idleb-governorate-0
https://www.humanitarianresponse.in...elopments_in_north-western_syria_20180130.pdf
https://www.humanitarianresponse.in...nts_in_north-western_syria_20180207_final.pdf

FSA buries the bodies of YPG fighters after Islamic funeral rites


EDIT: Forgot this. It's funny how they feel the need to yell Allah Akbar while destroying bottles. If they cant enjoy alcohol they want to make sure nobody can.




I think this is the second FSA technical that has been destroyed with an atgm


Guy in the video says the APC was destroyed by a mine







I haven't really been paying attention to the conflict lately so I will look into this more. At a glance what people have said happened was that a 500 strong force of SAA "ISIS Hunters" backed by tanks and artillery was directlly headed to Conoco (the oil company?) and was attacked in response. The SAA losses range from 25-215 and seem to include Russian PMC's. Like I said I will look into this later to better understand what happned.

An Israeli Jet was shot down after conducting airstrikes in Syria and crashed in the Golan heights. The pilots ejected and one is in hospital in serious condition. A pro syrian twitter user claims he has passed. The incident started when an Iranian drone was shot down in the Golan heights and Israel launched sorties in response. I think now they are launching cruise missles and maybe further airstrikes against Syria. I'll update on this some time later. I already spent ages compiling the Afrin section of this post and am burned out on Syria related stuff for now.

Alcohol abuse? How dare they.

Going to draw picture of Mohammad drinking a 40.

 

[VivaRevolution]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...syrian-army-to-enter-afrin-idUSKCN1G20QB?il=0

Isn't Turkey Assads ally as far as the Kurds go?

I'm confused.

 

[TheLastEmperorReurns]

a) Would Turkey really kick the US/UK out of Turkey over this?
b) IF yes, could we not have a base in shiny new Kurdistan?
c) Why would we want nukes 70 miles from the Syrian border anyway?

a) if the US does something to damage the territorial extent of Turkey- it might be enough grounds for such a rift. However America has shown a willingness to keep bases inside a country despite the population's protests.

b) Tough to station troops without dramatic counter-actions from Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Russia. A lot of consequences to the new area of Kurdistan to host US military bases while being landlocked by several hostile countries.

c) US imperialists do as US imperialists do.

 

[Prex32]

Isn't Turkey Assads ally as far as the Kurds go?

I'm confused.

nope....never trust a nato-member...

 

[Squish II]

Isn't Turkey Assads ally as far as the Kurds go?

I'm confused.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...syrian-army-to-enter-afrin-idUSKCN1G20QB?il=0

Turkey and Assad use eachother to get what they want regarding the PYD/YPG. In Afrin I believe Turkey would like to capture the whole area but they went into the operation knowing that this wouldn't be a likely outcome due to negotiations between the YPG and Syrian Government. This collage from Reddit is of different scenarios that could end up happening. Right now it seems like Scenario 4 is going to be the end result but with much less area under TFSA control.

To me the main goals of Turkey during Operation Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield weren't about capturing the whole area but primarily being able to get a buffer zone of suitable size in Syrian territory. The Afrin buffer zone serves several purposes:
-Prevent cross border collaboration between the PYD/YPG and PKK therefore making it harder for them to communicate, exchange arms and training, and to impact the ability for PKK fighters to seek safe haven in YPG territory across the border.
-Syrian refugees in Turkey can be resettled in this new area and the infrastructure will be developed. This of course costs Turkey money but it's considered worth it.
-Change the demographics of villages close to the Turkish border by resettling large amounts of non-Kurdish people into the area. I wouldn't be surprised if Kurds were kicked out of these areas and forced to move further into Afrin or maybe into the Euphrates Shield Zone. Qabasin for example has a significant Kurdish population. Of course all this resettlement, or ethnic cleansing, or whatever you want to call it is done for security reasons relating to the PKK. Sucks to be kicked out of your home in the name of another countries interests.

People like to talk about how Turkey wants to occupy these parts of Syria in the name of neo-ottoman imperialism but from the reasons I listed above I believe it is more about gaining an advantage in the Turkey-PKK conflict than anything concerning imperialism or getting back at the Syrian Government. Even only temporary occupation of these areas helps sway the conflict further to Turkey's side.

Turkey's conflict with Afrin forces it into a position where it must choose between giving up to Turkey and giving up to the Syrian government. As long as it has a sufficiently large buffer zone I doubt Turkey cares too much about what happens to the rest of Afrin since giving up to the Syrian government means that the YPG in Afrin will have to give up their arms and disband and the PYD will have to hand administrative control over. So what Turkey gets from Assad's involvement is the disbandment of the PYD/YPG administration over the Afrin area with less resources spent and lives lost at the cost of a smaller buffer zone. They will take advantage of the situation to crush the dream of Kurdish statehood for now.

What Assad gets from the conflict is control of whats left of the Afrin canton with a smaller fight than if the area was taken by force.The rumors say that they also want to enforce conscription in the area once it returns to government administration. The local fighters in Afrin are very high quality compared to most of the country but they may not fight as well for Assad compared to when they were in the YPG. It's also easier to get land back from the PYD than Turkey; who knows when Turkey will leave its occupied territory, if ever.

Of course most of this is speculation since we don't know what is going on in the deal between the Syrian Government and Afrin, but the universally believed conditions are that the PYD has to hand over administration to the government and the YPG must give up its arms and disband.

This isn't the best explanation but if you want me to expand on any points I will try my best to



Note: TRT World is a Turkish state news channel


Found this...

 

[ICHEERTHEBULL]

Turkey on Wednesday imposed curfews in dozens of villages and towns in Diyarbakir province in the Kurdish-majority southeast, in anticipation of a new operation against Kurdish militants inside the country.

The Diyarbakir governor's office said a total of 176 curfews had been imposed in the province, where the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is known to be active.

"A curfew is in place from Wednesday 0800 (0500 GMT) until a second announcement is made" in the villages and towns in the districts of Silvan, Kulp, Lice and Hazro, it said in a statement.

It said the curfews will allow security forces to "neutralise" members and collaborators of the "separatist terrorist organisation" - Turkey's official term for the PKK.

The PKK has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 but fighting has intensified in the region since the collapse of a two-year ceasefire in 2015.

The group is blacklisted as a terror organisation by Ankara, the United States and the European Union. Over 40,000 people have been killed in the three-decade conflict.

After the collapse of the ceasefire, Turkish authorities imposed months-long curfews in many southeastern areas as part of their operations against the PKK.

Although the Turkish authorities insist most of these operations are over, they regularly take measures including a two-day curfew imposed in 60 villages in Diyarbakir earlier this month.

The new curfews come after Turkey launched a cross-border offensive against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia in northern Syria.

Ankara says the YPG is a "terrorist" offshoot of the PKK but the militia has been working closely with the US against the Islamic State group in Syria.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-imposes-curfews-kurdish-majority-province-1526693023