UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

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Bestonian said:
Guise, I bet 500$ on Assuncao to win vs Moraes at 2.55 odds. (Also some smaller parlays that rely on Assuncao win)

Can somebody explain me how come Moraes is such a big favorite by the sport bookies???

Marlon Maroes is a 18-4 all-around fighter who is making his debute in UFC. Having beaten only literal nobodies in WSOF.

Raphael Assuncao is a 24-5 established UFC fighter, primarily a submission artist, who is the #3 ranked bantamweight in the UFC. Out of his last 9 fights he has only lost to his rematch of TJ Dillashaw(who he has beaten in a previous match), which is nothing to be shamed of.

Unless I am missing something big (like Assuncao having his arm amputated) then this bet with these odds is an absolute steal, no?
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Most would agree that the line is likely off on this fight, but I still think that Moraes will be too quick on the feet for Assuncao. Moraes is very talented.
 
Bestonian said:
Guise, I bet 500$ on Assuncao to win vs Moraes at 2.55 odds. (Also some smaller parlays that rely on Assuncao win)

Can somebody explain me how come Moraes is such a big favorite by the sport bookies???

Marlon Maroes is a 18-4 all-around fighter who is making his debute in UFC. Having beaten only literal nobodies in WSOF.

Raphael Assuncao is a 24-5 established UFC fighter, primarily a submission artist, who is the #3 ranked bantamweight in the UFC. Out of his last 9 fights he has only lost to his rematch of TJ Dillashaw(who he has beaten in a previous match), which is nothing to be shamed of.

Unless I am missing something big (like Assuncao having his arm amputated) then this bet with these odds is an absolute steal, no?
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Too many stats, not enough interpretation of how the fight plays out when these styles clash. Moraes has one of the better styles at BW to beat assuncao, especially if he can shrug off tds with ease
 
Assuncao DEC +349 and Moraes NSC -179. Playing both of these.
 
I have a unit on Assuncao at +160, but man am I tempted to add at +200. That's just off
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Hmmm gas tank? Fight IQ? He's physically outmatched but he's a crafty bastard, he keeps finding a way to win.
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His way is subbing people, and he is facing an elite BJJ fighter, even by sport BJJ standards. This is a guy who subbed Gary Tonon.
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Hmmm gas tank? Fight IQ? He's physically outmatched but he's a crafty bastard, he keeps finding a way to win.
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ACJ cardio held up fine in a grindfest last fight. Definitely not a significant advantage, if an advtange at all for Spicely. Hard to say fight IQ is in Spicely's favor when hes a sub guy who got subbed by Sam Alvey.

Every technical skill and athletic attribute is an advantage for ACJ. Spicely followed his path to victory in his last few fights, props to him. But strong argument he has zero paths to victory, and this is one of the worst style fights for him in the middle of the MW pack
 
I've been so excited about Aldo - Holloway, that I made first bets on Max immediately when the lines came out. I just trust his momentum, ambition, talent and grit. I have some units on ML, some dec, a little on late finish and a draw hedge. Other bets on this card very small. Most props I've copied from more experienced bettors when I've understood the logic of the bet and it supports my ML bets. I calculated, that trying to find value in prop bets on my own has cost me 3u in last two events. I also calculated, that I've won 6u in last four events by copying prop bets from others. That's how great this forum is!
 
Still hesitating about playing Wallhead at 3,16.Chagas gasses and odds should be closer.Wallhead took a debut fight on short notice and judges had it the wrong way.On the other hand chagas may be better than Ayari and he's fighting in Brazil.
 
Joseph Budden said:
ACJ cardio held up fine in a grindfest last fight. Definitely not a significant advantage, if an advtange at all for Spicely. Hard to say fight IQ is in Spicely's favor when hes a sub guy who got subbed by Sam Alvey.

Every technical skill and athletic attribute is an advantage for ACJ. Spicely followed his path to victory in his last few fights, props to him. But strong argument he has zero paths to victory, and this is one of the worst style fights for him in the middle of the MW pack
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i dunno about one of the worst style fights. someone like brad tavares (strong, atheletic, fundamentally sound striker with impeccable takedown defence) i'd back against spicely every time.

ACJ should win, but type of style match up gives me pause for thought. spicely's striking and takedown defence are question marks and acj has been known to gas - that is enough for me to pass when acj is so juiced.
 
piglord said:
i dunno about one of the worst style fights. someone like brad tavares (strong, atheletic, fundamentally sound striker with impeccable takedown defence) i'd back against spicely every time.

ACJ should win, but type of style match up gives me pause for thought. spicely's striking and takedown defence are question marks and acj has been known to gas - that is enough for me to pass when acj is so juiced.
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Spicely will still have an advantage though. If he can bring it to the mat against a guy like Tavares, thats a path. Spicely is solid on the ground and has an aggressive sub game, but ACJ is one of the best JJ guys at MW. ACJ one of the guys who should not only out grapple Spicely, but should make it fairly easy barring some crazy improvement to Spice's wrestling where he can hug for 15 mins. But thats extremely doubtful not just cause of his skill, but ACJ is likely much stronger and bigger on fight night

I see what you're saying though. A solid striker with great tdd is also a seemingly bad fight for Spicely.
 
Man I'm in the middle of the Norwegian fjords on a cruise ship and I'm bummed because I'm going to miss this!
If you haven't den it already... Jose Aldo all in!!!
 
Spicely has charged in head first for takedowns in both of his last fights and been reversed twice. If he does this against Carlos early he's getting pummelled. I would be seriously shocked if he has much of anything for Junior.
 
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