UFC 218 - Holloway vs Aldo II - Detroit

[stretcharmstrong]

When does it start exactly?

3 mins

 

[Dooze]

I'm liking the over props for KO/TKO tonight. In looking at it:

Crowder/Willis-could definitely end in a KO, it's HW obviously.
Magana/Cooper-pretty unlikely KO
Kimball/Reyes-likely KO for Reyes
Alhassan/Homasi-definitely could end in a KO
Casey/Herrig-unlikely KO
Klose/Teymur-unlikely but wouldn't be crazy
Madeiros/Brazilian Cowboy-could definitely end in KO
Felder/Olive-Felder could for sure KO Olive
Waterson/Torres-almost no chance
Alvarez/Gaethje-likely ends in KO
Pettis/Cejudo-unlikely
Reem/Ngannou-likely ends in KO
Max/Aldo-very good chance ends in KO again

So out of 13 fights, you have 4-5 that are unlikely to end in KO, 4-5 that are likely to end in KO, and 3-5 that definitely could, but you might not say are super likely to.

I'm playing o5.5 KO/TKO and up at increasing + odds. I think we see a good amount of KO's tonight.

skybet has the 9 fights from Herrig onwards counting towards an o/u of 3.5 KOs tonight @ 2.10. I'm considering it, though would probably prefer to play the o5.5 and have the fight pass prelims included since 2/3 of thoses will likely be ending in KO.

Think I know most of the prefight bets I'm going to do.

Reem/NGannou o1.5 is @ 2.25. Not sure whether to do that or just Fight starts r2 @ 1.90. I put little on Ngannou r3 @ 19.00 via paddy power too. Could definitely see it.

Maybe Alvarez ITD @ 5.0 on skybet. If he wins it's by stoppage, likely KO but could see him hurting Justin and trying for a choke. Think I'll use the "Fight doesn't go the distance" prop in a double with something as a 'safe' bet too, maybe with Cowboy win.

Dogs wise, probably be on Felder and Reem. Maybe even Mangana since I'll happily take huge underdogs on low level womens MMA. Was debating Kimball too purely for the odds but might just avoid that fight.

 

[EzFlyer]

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-218-pbp-discussion.3668675/