UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

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After touting the NOT DC sub line, I'm gonna take some guaranteed profit. Added to it last night when it dropped down to -161, which just seemed kinda nuts to me. But given that I agree with what a lot of you guys pointing out that it IS the most likely scenario, I'm just gonna take my guaranteed profit and play DC sub +195. Maybe I'll regret being a pussy on this one, but guaranteed $ is guaranteed $. If the line takes another crazy swing, maybe I jump back on it.
 
mkess101 said:
After touting the NOT DC sub line, I'm gonna take some guaranteed profit. Added to it last night when it dropped down to -161, which just seemed kinda nuts to me. But given that I agree with what a lot of you guys pointing out that it IS the most likely scenario, I'm just gonna take my guaranteed profit and play DC sub +195. Maybe I'll regret being a pussy on this one, but guaranteed $ is guaranteed $. If the line takes another crazy swing, maybe I jump back on it.
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I missed most of the discussion last night, but I think DC is pretty likely to get a late sub here if Volk gives up his back. I also think DCs been throwing some heat lately, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him land on Volk standing and then GnP.
 
cagebrain said:
Cormier -3.5 is -250 on 5D. Compared to his ML -325, no brainer. In what world does cormier win a close decision???

And yes, for some reason it's -3.5 not -5.5, so thats another thing in its favour
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If Volkan can stuff TDs in any round I feel like the judges will be leaning towards him simply because of the perceived strenghts and gameplans of both fighters.
 
Oblivian said:
I missed most of the discussion last night, but I think DC is pretty likely to get a late sub here if Volk gives up his back. I also think DCs been throwing some heat lately, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him land on Volk standing and then GnP.
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Yeah it was good discussion. I agreed that the most likely outcome was DC sub, but was just arguing that the line was way off. At one point DC sub was +121 and DC KO/TKO was +374. Like you said, wouldn't be shocking at all to see DC finish via TKO. Yeah, sub is more likely, but at that point odds were saying it ws over THREE TIMES as likely, which was baffling to me. His sub line is +195 now, which I think is more in line with the actual % he gets it.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah it was good discussion. I agreed that the most likely outcome was DC sub, but was just arguing that the line was way off. At one point DC sub was +121 and DC KO/TKO was +374. Like you said, wouldn't be shocking at all to see DC finish via TKO. Yeah, sub is more likely, but at that point odds were saying it ws over THREE TIMES as likely, which was baffling to me. His sub line is +195 now, which I think is more in line with the actual % he gets it.
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If i hadnt played the decision line already, I would have probably bet the +195 sub line tbh
 
iGnP said:
If i hadnt played the decision line already, I would have probably bet the +195 sub line tbh
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Yeah I can see that. I still don't think it screams value, but I don't think it's a bad bet either. I was just shocked people were betting it at +136 all the way down to +121.
 
Barroso +4.5 -165. According to live chat it's not an error
 
Is there realy much difference between +3.5 and +4.5? Id rather play a less juiced +3.5
 
iGnP said:
Is there realy much difference between +3.5 and +4.5? Id rather play a less juiced +3.5
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Only if 10-8s come into play. They just reset it to +3.5 -160, maxing again.
 
iGnP said:
Is there realy much difference between +3.5 and +4.5? Id rather play a less juiced +3.5
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Maybe a little more under the new rules where 10-8 are more frequent, but yeah there aren't many scores where that one point would matter really.

I don't even remember if MA has adapted the new rules either.
 
i know villante isn't the most cut guy in the world but didn't he look particularly bad at the official weigh in, even by his standards?
 
vkram said:
Re-watched Font vs Munhoz. Font was doing well early on busting Munhoz up from range but Munhoz kept coming and started landing some good swinging shots. I think Munhoz stunned Font which made him shoot in. Haven't re-watched the Lineker fight but from what I remember Lineker just marched him down and beat him up for 3 rounds. I think if Almeida pressures Font he should win. He might get tagged early like he usually does but when he finds his groove Font might start getting more hesitant.
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got a main play this week? nice call on stephens! $$$
 
EzFlyer said:
It's unpopular right now but I like pantoja.. it's a better price than I had, too.

I think he's the slightly better striker and for sure the better grappler. I only see him losing via decision if he spends too much time on bottom..

I like(d) the pantoja NSC even more when it was like -150, tho.. I threw like 400 on it in that ballpark. That said, I'm a bit too heavy on the fight for my style; too many eggs in one basket. Ortiz finish would mean like -$800, lol.

But I kinda hate picking "one moneyline" ya know? I like a bunch of stuff to varying degrees.

I like a few dogs this week tho, unlike last week.. man last week sucked for me! Lol.

Gonna be on stipe 100%. But I also have u1.5 and various other props

Definitely think tibau is a must-bet for any high-to-medium volume bettor.
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tks ez. im liking the price now. fkn ortiz has ended up in my draftkings cash team so prob have to skip him now. dk annoying like that. 2 profitable bets so should play them both but never know what to cheer 4 then. will def play tibau. stipe makes sense for a small play. if the lines wrong it must be that way. cormier my main play this week.
 
Tibau was popped for EPO, right? I wonder if his gas tank is going to be drastically different tonight
 
Tim tibau up to +260

I hit his +3.5 line at +110
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I just smashed +260 and +255

Even if he's completely washed like 20% of the time this is still a good bet.
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I couldn’t find +260 anywhere. They pulled his reduced line. Only saw +250


Edit: nm its back
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I just smashed +260 and +255

Even if he's completely washed like 20% of the time this is still a good bet.
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Prettymuch. Islam taking a huge step up, and Tibau doesn't look like he's lost his PEDs.
 
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