UFC 222 - Edgar vs Ortega - Vegas

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I've only placed three bets:

O'Malley @ 2.00. Wish I'd bet while he was above evens

Arlovski/Struve to end by KO @ 1.83

Cyborg/Yana goes over 1.5 rounds @ 2.20
 
Didn’t Holly almost beat cyborg? If I remember correctly cyborg squeaked by on the cards even though we all thought she dominated.

I think Holly showed how to beat her. Clinch keep her on the cage, use foot work and get in and clinch or get outta there. It almost worked for Holly, but other than the clinch this Russian girl is nothing like Holly.

If she can somehow keep the first 3 rounds in the clinch without taking too many clean shots, she may have a chance. As cyborg will start to slowdown.

It most likely won’t be now but like all other top women fighters, cyborg will lose and then everyone will say she sucked and got exposed. So the life of the women fighters.
 
AxeMurderer said:
Didn’t Holly almost beat cyborg? If I remember correctly cyborg squeaked by on the cards even though we all thought she dominated.

I think Holly showed how to beat her. Clinch keep her on the cage, use foot work and get in and clinch or get outta there. It almost worked for Holly, but other than the clinch this Russian girl is nothing like Holly.

If she can somehow keep the first 3 rounds in the clinch without taking too many clean shots, she may have a chance. As cyborg will start to slowdown.

It most likely won’t be now but like all other top women fighters, cyborg will lose and then everyone will say she sucked and got exposed. So the life of the women fighters.
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Cyborg will destroy her probably. But honestly, you're right in that at some point she'll lose, and it's not impossible it's tonight.

+1195 ML
+2600 dec

I mean, you can basically risk almost nothing and if this girl somehow wins you will make some okay $. It's not the worst idea ever.

Hell, think about Jones/Sonnen. Chael literally had ZERO ways to win that fight. He didn't hit hard enough to hurt Jones. He was completely and utterly overmatched grappling. There was literally not one second of that fight where Chael had any prayer of mounting any offense. Yet...had he survived the round that he was finished in he'd have won the fight due to Jones gruesome toe injury.

In other words, weird stuff happens. I'd way rather risk almost nothing on a massive dog than lay insane juice on the favorite in a spot like this.
 
Yeah I think there is zero chance cyborg loses but there is 100% chance that something weird could happen and she could lose. If that makes any kind of sense. The jones toe injury is a perfect example. Eventually though she will lose as a massive favorite it’s just a matter of time.
 
mkess101 said:
Biggest action for me is on a WMMA fighter making her UFC debut. ML in parlays, itd, and esp -3.5. And...can't watch the card at all so zero chance to live bet out of it if she somehow can't get it to the mat and is losing the standup.

Yep, that's where I'm at. That's how much I believe in the grappling disparity. Sure hope it doesn't bite me in the ass. But I've seen Dern on the mat vs way better grapplers than Yoder (who has zero TDD as well) and Dern still dominated them. I honestly don't know how Yoder survives.
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Mkess, what fight showed Yoder has zero TDD?
 
conmemay said:
Mkess, what fight showed Yoder has zero TDD?
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One of her pre UFC fights. Can't remember which one cuz I watched 2 of them. Kish also used a Yoder TD attempt to spin Yoder and put her on her back with ease.
Kish also easily used a Yoder
 
My UFC 222 bets all bets for 50$
Johnson-Wins by dec +142
Caraway+105
Ottow- WIns by dec+292
Dolloway wins by dec+262
Muhnoz+120
Dariush wins by dec+234
Dern wins by 3 rd dec+288
Vieria wins by 3 rd dec+119
Struve wins by dec+402
Omalley wins by dec+280
No bet in edgar ortega yet
Cyborg wins by dec+860

I wanted to bet 12 fights go to a dec wasnt a prop so I bet 8 9 and 10 fights go to a dec for 25 each
8+1111
9+2925
10+12500
0 1 and 2 fights end in ko for 25
0-+10800
1-+1765
2-+578
0,7,6,5 fights end in sub all for 25
0-+1610
5-+1022
6-+2775
7-+10200

I was in vegas for the last event I came up about 1800 so hopefully I can keep the streak alive
 
Sham, you're on Dern too? I'm picking Yoder to upset this Dern girl. Feel like Dern is similar to Rousey in that she's great on the ground but her striking is limited and we dont know how well she reacts to taking a good punch/kick. Yoder is leagues below Holly Holm but if her team prepares her using the same game plan as Holly Holm, I feel she can use her footwork to keep it outside and win a decision. Anyhow, Yoder did good against Kish (i thought she won that fight) and not bad against Hill. I dont like Dern's TD. I dont think she has good TD. Her footwork is slow. Her striking is limited to charging in throwing overhand rights. I hope Yoder practices highkicks during her camp and Holly Holm this Dern girl. Not hating on Dern, just think she's still unproven to be getting this kind of odds.
 
line movement is killing me for this event like never before, I could have gotten much better lines if I had waited, really didn't expect that :eek:
 
Who's found the best value tonight?

I haven't looked too hard but Arlovski by finish is +300
 
Caraway almost favorite, O'Malley already is
 
conmemay said:
Sham, you're on Dern too? I'm picking Yoder to upset this Dern girl. Feel like Dern is similar to Rousey in that she's great on the ground but her striking is limited and we dont know how well she reacts to taking a good punch/kick. Yoder is leagues below Holly Holm but if her team prepares her using the same game plan as Holly Holm, I feel she can use her footwork to keep it outside and win a decision. Anyhow, Yoder did good against Kish (i thought she won that fight) and not bad against Hill. I dont like Dern's TD. I dont think she has good TD. Her footwork is slow. Her striking is limited to charging in throwing overhand rights. I hope Yoder practices highkicks during her camp and Holly Holm this Dern girl. Not hating on Dern, just think she's still unproven to be getting this kind of odds.
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Yoder is just too willing to grapple and gasses with her high pace style. Playing with fire and the UFC matchmaking knows it.
 
conmemay said:
Sham, you're on Dern too? I'm picking Yoder to upset this Dern girl. Feel like Dern is similar to Rousey in that she's great on the ground but her striking is limited and we dont know how well she reacts to taking a good punch/kick. Yoder is leagues below Holly Holm but if her team prepares her using the same game plan as Holly Holm, I feel she can use her footwork to keep it outside and win a decision. Anyhow, Yoder did good against Kish (i thought she won that fight) and not bad against Hill. I dont like Dern's TD. I dont think she has good TD. Her footwork is slow. Her striking is limited to charging in throwing overhand rights. I hope Yoder practices highkicks during her camp and Holly Holm this Dern girl. Not hating on Dern, just think she's still unproven to be getting this kind of odds.
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On her small in a double and treble. Yeah her strikin isnt great but she hits hard for a girl it seems and yoder throws way too many kicks for me. Dern likely to catch one and on the mat it will be domination.

Agree lines wide tho
 
Would like to inform everyone that I am having extreme anxiety and depression issues. Will not be contributing nor offering any free plays in the forseeable future.

- Barry
 
barrygood1 said:
Would like to inform everyone that I am having extreme anxiety and depression issues. Will not be contributing nor offering any free plays in the forseeable future.

- Barry
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sorry to hear that barry. rest up get refreshed and we will be here when you are ready to jump back in..

#barryis#1
 
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