UFC 222 - Edgar vs Ortega - Vegas

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Frankie getting bet on 5d. Went from -160 to -205 in the last 12 hours. I have an idea how I want to play this, but need to wait on props. That said, if more $ pours in on Frankie, I'll have to entertain a bet on T City if he gets to +200 or close. I think Frankie deserves to be favored, but not a 2-1 favorite.
 
AA would def be a bet at +200 or better
 
mkess101 said:
Frankie getting bet on 5d. Went from -160 to -205 in the last 12 hours. I have an idea how I want to play this, but need to wait on props. That said, if more $ pours in on Frankie, I'll have to entertain a bet on T City if he gets to +200 or close. I think Frankie deserves to be favored, but not a 2-1 favorite.
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IDK if I agree. Ortega's impressive in finding his subs but he's been outstruck in practically every fight in the UFC. I trust Edgar to avoid putting himself in compromised positions and winning an easy fight. I already bet him and have no regrets whatsoever
 
t6p said:
He opened +290 and he’s at +240 now. I went 0.5u on the +290.
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woops didnt realize it was already on 5d. Yeah, just bet it at +240, thanks!
 
iGnP said:
IDK if I agree. Ortega's impressive in finding his subs but he's been outstruck in practically every fight in the UFC. I trust Edgar to avoid putting himself in compromised positions and winning an easy fight. I already bet him and have no regrets whatsoever
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The thing with Ortega is he's so tall and unorthodox and has mastered offensive bjj so well, he can snag subs even when his opponent doesn't necessarily give them away. That's a rarity in modern MMA.

I do favor Frankie. I think he'll outpoint T City and win. But Ortega will do things that other elite sub guys won't. He's dangerous every second of every fight. If Ortega gets above +200 it will just be an odds play. In hindsight I probably should have hit Frankie -160, but that ship has sailed. I'll just wait on line movement now, or see what the props look like.
 
Yeah I had already bet AA +290 for 1u. Wish I'd done more. I just added .75u at +240.

HW fights not featuring elite guys with lines like that never make sense. How anyone would trust Struve in this spot as a steep favorite is beyond me.
 
EDIT: waiting for lines to comment.
 
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mkess101 said:
The thing with Ortega is he's so tall and unorthodox and has mastered offensive bjj so well, he can snag subs even when his opponent doesn't necessarily give them away. That's a rarity in modern MMA.

I do favor Frankie. I think he'll outpoint T City and win. But Ortega will do things that other elite sub guys won't. He's dangerous every second of every fight. If Ortega gets above +200 it will just be an odds play. In hindsight I probably should have hit Frankie -160, but that ship has sailed. I'll just wait on line movement now, or see what the props look like.
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Ortega's submissions largely come from countering takedowns or from that crazy Cub Swanson clinch-guillotine. His positional BJJ doesn't seem that great, based on him getting mauled from top position against Tavares and Guida. I think Edgar's smart enough to get Ortega down safely, and then can chill in half guard with no major concern so long as he doesn't get caught coming in.
 
Gugabe said:
Ortega's submissions largely come from countering takedowns or from that crazy Cub Swanson clinch-guillotine. His positional BJJ doesn't seem that great, based on him getting mauled from top position against Tavares and Guida. I think Edgar's smart enough to get Ortega down safely, and then can chill in half guard with no major concern so long as he doesn't get caught coming in.
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i dont think he will even take it to the mat, honestly. maybe at the end of rounds to score some points. a lot of guys make mistakes under ortega's pressure but i think Edgar is good enough defensively (and smart enough) to implement a boring gameplan
 
iGnP said:
i dont think he will even take it to the mat, honestly. maybe at the end of rounds to score some points. a lot of guys make mistakes under ortega's pressure but i think Edgar is good enough defensively (and smart enough) to implement a boring gameplan
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Yep, I think Frankie knows he can outbox Ortega pretty easily. No need to mess around on the mat with a guy that has slick subs like Ortega does.

CAN Frankie positionally dominate Ortega on the ground? Yeah. But why take that risk? Unless Frankie is somehow losing the standup, he'll just try to bounce around and play pop-a-shot with Ortega most likely.
 
SBJJ said:
God. I hope so
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fight is much more interesting as a 5er. Ortega really needs the time to find the sub.

Ortega r5 and Ortega by sub would be my plays.
 
mkess101 said:
Yep, I think Frankie knows he can outbox Ortega pretty easily. No need to mess around on the mat with a guy that has slick subs like Ortega does.

CAN Frankie positionally dominate Ortega on the ground? Yeah. But why take that risk? Unless Frankie is somehow losing the standup, he'll just try to bounce around and play pop-a-shot with Ortega most likely.
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yea agreed. However T City can find subs even from standing positions.
 
LEMONZEST said:
yea agreed. However T City can find subs even from standing positions.
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For sure. Ortega is tall for the division, and has absolutely zero problem taking chances from standing positions to hunt subs because (for better or worse) he doesn't care if he ends up on his back. Guard pulls from the clinch, standing chokes, etc. It's all in play with him.
 
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