UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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I like Anthony Pettis/Michael Chiesa Under 2½ at +115. Both these guys have been losing and winning by stoppage a lot in their last few fights. You have Pettis' higher champion level skills, at least at one time vs Chiesa's not-elite so far level, Chiesa's inconsistent, sometimes great, sometimes flawed performances. Pettis has KO or submission potential, Chiesa mostly has submission potential, plus Pettis could get injured again like he did in his last fight.
 
Chiesa/Pettis Under 2.5 +115. Goes the distance/Does not go the distance -115 each?
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People are betting dngd more than the under obviously and the price difference isn't that much but its still funny to me. I think I'll pay a little juice for it though just in case of a another round 3 4:59 finish. Otherwise picking a side here is a crapshoot at best for me. Shrug.
 
JimGunn said:
I like Anthony Pettis/Michael Chiesa Under 2½ at +115. Both these guys have been losing and winning by stoppage a lot in their last few fights. You have Pettis' higher champion level skills, at least at one time vs Chiesa's not-elite so far level, Chiesa's inconsistent, sometimes great, sometimes flawed performances. Pettis has KO or submission potential, Chiesa mostly has submission potential, plus Pettis could get injured again like he did in his last fight.
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Can't argue with this at all. Probably the most likely way it doesn't hit is if Chiesa is able to wall n stall for long periods of time, but I don't see that happening. I don't think Chiesa is dumb enough to stand at distance very long with Pettis, and I do think Chiesa will be able to get it to the mat. He's just the bigger, stronger guy. And on the mat, you're spot on in that both guys will be aggressive. Good chance for a sub. If it does stay standing, Pettis is for sure capable of landing something that hurts Chiesa too.
 
I have been saying all along (and still believe) that Ferg/Khabib doesn't go to the cards. I think both guys are just too aggressive with what they do and 25 minutes is a long ass time for something big not to happen. I realize Tony showed he can be a little more methodical and reserved vs RDA in a striking match (still aggressive and moving forward with volume, but not so reckless), but on the mat off his back is another story. I don't think he is willing to play defense in that spot and just try to tie Khabib up. He'll take chances, for better or worse.

BUT...

Tony's dec prop is just at an absurd price now imo. +705 is silly. We all are liking Tony's rd 4 and 5 props because we know there's a chance Khabib slows down after 10-15 minutes and we know Tony has yet to ever tire or fade in a fight. So if Khabib wins rds 1 and 2 but starts to slow a bit in rd 3 where Tony takes over and then Tony wins rds 4 and 5 but can't finish...you get the point.

Tony dec +705 is off a bit, there's some value.
Tony split/maj +1800 I'm taking a little stab too.

For that matter, look at the difference in Khabib unan and Khabib split. If you think Tony is capable of winning the second half of the fight, Khabib split at +1150 is worth a look too.
 
Picked up some Tony DEC @13.00
 
Tony/Khabib Over 3½ improved all the way to -117. Bet that to win 1 unit. Also put some money on both Tony & Khabib by split/majority decision at great prices, +1800 and +1150 respectively. Also bet Tony by 5 round decision at +705.
 
Decided to hit Not Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance at -184. risking 3.68u to win 2u. I'm betting that Tony is tough enough to not get stopped. I think this bout could go to a decision even if hard fought and I'm rooting for Tony. So as long as Tony wins ITD or by decision or Khabib wins a decision, even a wide unanimous decision, the prop wins. I'm gambling a bit on the referee not jumping too quickly if Tony looks in trouble at some point or the fight not getting stopped by a cut on Tony from Khabib's ground & pound. But this covers most outcomes for a decent price- Tony ITD, Tony DEC, Khabib DEC or even a draw.
 
JimGunn said:
Decided to hit Not Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance at -184. risking 3.68u to win 2u. I'm betting that Tony is tough enough to not get stopped. I think this bout could go to a decision even if hard fought and I'm rooting for Tony. So as long as Tony wins ITD or by decision or Khabib wins a decision, even a wide unanimous decision, the prop wins. I'm gambling a bit on the referee not jumping too quickly if Tony looks in trouble at some point or the fight not getting stopped by a cut on Tony from Khabib's ground & pound. But this covers most outcomes for a decent price- Tony ITD, Tony DEC, Khabib DEC or even a draw.
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I agree I don't think Khabib stops Tony here, I really like Tony NSC +157. Also followed suit with not Khabib ITD for 1.5u. Already on Tony rd 4/5 and both split dec props tiny.
 
Maybe a bit too much, but I took 1u of Ferg dec at 8.05. If Khabib has a good camp he’ll be very hard to finish and Ferg could fight relatively conservative as underdog like he did against RDA.
 
I'm getting Rose win at 5/4

Is this real life?

I know I know JJ gets a lot of love around here.. but I see it going exactly the same..
 
this card reminds me of ufc 200 (the one with the yellow colored mat), stacked competitively and many fights went to decisions. I will probably bet the event props line of "X amount of fights go to decision". And as a theoretical hedge, I will try to bet some props on TKO/SUB victories, though nothing is jumping out so far.
 
levitation said:
this card reminds me of ufc 200 (the one with the yellow colored mat), stacked competitively and many fights went to decisions. I will probably bet the event props line of "X amount of fights go to decision". And as a theoretical hedge, I will try to bet some props on TKO/SUB victories, though nothing is jumping out so far.
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This is pedantic as it gets, but the event prop is actually "x # of fights go distance" which is in the very rare occurance in MMA of a technical decision happening, not the same thing as "x # of fights go to decision", something a few bettors learned the last time we got a technical decision in the UFC.
 
t6p said:
It wouldn’t be surprising. But, Chiesa is most dangerous from the back and Pettis is excellent at defending RNCs.

Pettis is also a big submission threat himself. I could easily see him jumping on a guillotine off one of Chiesa’s sloppy shots or hurting him on the feet first. I actually think Pettis sub could be equally or even more likely.
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FYI Pettis sub spiked all the way up to +651. I just did a bit on it. I checked and I didn't move the line yet though. If you're gonna hit it now is definitely the time imo.

+651 is pretty crazy value for a fight that could end up a scramble-fest like Pettis/Olives, or at least a grappling heavy fight like Pettis/Poirier.

Meanwhile Chiesa sub down to +340. Value probably gone from that prop now.
 
mkess101 said:
FYI Pettis sub spiked all the way up to +651. I just did a bit on it. I checked and I didn't move the line yet though. If you're gonna hit it now is definitely the time imo.

+651 is pretty crazy value for a fight that could end up a scramble-fest like Pettis/Olives, or at least a grappling heavy fight like Pettis/Poirier.

Meanwhile Chiesa sub down to +340. Value probably gone from that prop now.
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Yea, I saw that the other day and stabbed it, but thanks for the heads up.

I also added a bit more to Moreno sub at +1195. Seems like a great price for what's probably his most likely path here IMO.
 
JimGunn said:
Decided to hit Not Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance at -184. risking 3.68u to win 2u. I'm betting that Tony is tough enough to not get stopped. I think this bout could go to a decision even if hard fought and I'm rooting for Tony. So as long as Tony wins ITD or by decision or Khabib wins a decision, even a wide unanimous decision, the prop wins. I'm gambling a bit on the referee not jumping too quickly if Tony looks in trouble at some point or the fight not getting stopped by a cut on Tony from Khabib's ground & pound. But this covers most outcomes for a decent price- Tony ITD, Tony DEC, Khabib DEC or even a draw.
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I went big the other way, Not Khabib dec. I've broken it down a lot, but basically my theory is that Tony just doesn't accept playing defensive guard for long stretches. He'll do it for a bit, use his rubber guard to to try to stalemate, but it's not for very long. He takes repeated chances. Khabib is amazing at slowly advancing to half guard and doing real damage. No question, Tony is as durable as they come and has cardio for days, but he gets stuck in bad spots a lot. My concern is what you mentioned, the ref jumping in with Tony stuck in a bad spot even if Tony isn't seriously hurt and is fine to continue.

That said, I think Tony can sap Khabib's gas tank over the first 10-15 minutes of the fight, even if it looks like Khabib is getting the better of it. Khabib was the hammer the entire time vs Barboza (who offered basically nothing off his back) and Khabib still looked visibly tired after that 15 minute beatdown he administered. If Tony is able to be a little more active and do a little damage of his own, late in round 3 or early in round 4 we could see him turn it on and maybe get a finish. Otherwise, I could potentially see a very close decision either way with Khabib clearly winning the first half of the fight and Tony the second half. So I did pseudo-hedge a bit with Khabib split/maj at +1150.

Basically the only way I'm taking a bath is if Khabib wins a unan dec. A lot of people think that's the most likely outcome, but I disagree. I think he either gets the finish with Tony stuck in a bad spot that he can't get out of, or Tony survives early and takes over late and gets a late stoppage.
 
mkess101 said:
I went big the other way, Not Khabib dec. I've broken it down a lot, but basically my theory is that Tony just doesn't accept playing defensive guard for long stretches. He'll do it for a bit, use his rubber guard to to try to stalemate, but it's not for very long. He takes repeated chances. Khabib is amazing at slowly advancing to half guard and doing real damage. No question, Tony is as durable as they come and has cardio for days, but he gets stuck in bad spots a lot. My concern is what you mentioned, the ref jumping in with Tony stuck in a bad spot even if Tony isn't seriously hurt and is fine to continue.

That said, I think Tony can sap Khabib's gas tank over the first 10-15 minutes of the fight, even if it looks like Khabib is getting the better of it. Khabib was the hammer the entire time vs Barboza (who offered basically nothing off his back) and Khabib still looked visibly tired after that 15 minute beatdown he administered. If Tony is able to be a little more active and do a little damage of his own, late in round 3 or early in round 4 we could see him turn it on and maybe get a finish. Otherwise, I could potentially see a very close decision either way with Khabib clearly winning the first half of the fight and Tony the second half. So I did pseudo-hedge a bit with Khabib split/maj at +1150.

Basically the only way I'm taking a bath is if Khabib wins a unan dec. A lot of people think that's the most likely outcome, but I disagree. I think he either gets the finish with Tony stuck in a bad spot that he can't get out of, or Tony survives early and takes over late and gets a late stoppage.
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I saw your play first and gave it some thought, but not only am I rooting for Tony, but I think that if Khabib wins Khabib by decision is more likely than Khabib finishing. So I'm on the over, Tony ML, and some decision and other props. I may hedge a little with Khabib winning in round 2 or 3 as I think those are the most likely rounds he finishes in if he does.
 
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