UFC 224 - Nunes vs Pennington - Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[Yotsuya]

I don’t see the agrument for Albini’s inconsistency. He lost to a better and more experienced kickboxer, who managed to turn his career around that night. He might not be very good at adjusting, but he did fight until the end and was trying to finish the fight in the third. He’s showed good enough boxing and a strong clinch. I think he could do just fine against hw grapplers.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I don’t see the agrument for Albini’s inconsistency. He lost to a better and more experienced kickboxer, who managed to turn his career around that night. He might not be very good at adjusting, but he did fight until the end and was trying to finish the fight in the third. He’s showed good enough boxing and a strong clinch. I think he could do just fine against hw grapplers.

HW fight, Brazilian event. That’s a double whammy for me. I won’t even try to predict what will happen.

The big baby came in at 266 limit. One punch or elbow could change the entire thing.

And then you got a guy who can choke you out if you full mounted him.

This fight screams pass for me personally but I guess by virtue, for action sake, you roll the dice and just play the dog.

 

[MT6ix]

100% and Strickland could be a good live bet as well. I'm on Ramos and Zaleski but if I see an good opening to buy out or switch sides I'm taking it. Good insight all around in your post.

Thing with Strickland is he has periods where he just coasts and Zaleski constantly pushes the pace and pressures his opponents which looks really good in the eyes of judges.

If Strickland decides to apply a grappling/wrestling based approach, he can definitely win this fight in Brazil. A lot of his fights you don't see it and he just decides to keep the fight standing. It's a little shocking since he is so big for he welterweight division and his size is a huge advantage. I guess we will see tonight what his strategy will be.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Thing with Strickland is he has periods where he just coasts and Zaleski constantly pushes the pace and pressures his opponents which looks really good in the eyes of judges.

If Strickland decides to apply a grappling/wrestling based approach, he can definitely win this fight in Brazil. A lot of his fights you don't see it and he just decides to keep the fight standing. It's a little shocking since he is so big for he welterweight division and his size is a huge advantage. I guess we will see tonight what his strategy will be.

Such a tough fight to call. And the over is too juiced out to even consider.

But to add to the point, I believe Zaleski has shown really good leg lock sweep. He used it to get up several times iirc against Keita and that Russian guy. I don’t think the wrestling will be a major factor.

But seeing how it’s in Brazil, you can’t feel good about betting Strickland. Strickland can land the better shots and snipe Zaleski throwing those hard loopy punches and still lose, just like Tim Means.

And I agree that Zaleski has proven to go berserker in the waning seconds.

Strickland is really good at just sticking his jab out and letting you run into it. He backpeddles a lot and keeps his chin high but he’s just always measuring out his jab and swiping short left hooks. Man I’m going to have to Live Bet it.

 

[Yotsuya]

HW fight, Brazilian event. That’s a double whammy for me. I won’t even try to predict what will happen.

The big baby came in at 266 limit. One punch or elbow could change the entire thing.

And then you got a guy who can choke you out if you full mounted him.

This fight screams pass for me personally but I guess by virtue, for action sake, you roll the dice and just play the dog.

Albini has short and very strong limbs and no neck. I’m sure Oleinik could catch him with sidechoke or something, but I think Oleinik has proven, that he’s a ridicilous sub threat, so I would be surprised, if Albini would try his luck on ground. Oleinik’s power is concern too, but skillwise Albini should have a huge advantage standing.

 

[P4p Islam]

I keep reiterating this, but I’m just not a fan of betting this card. I’m not doing any parlays on this one nor do I have any confident picks.

I’m kinda confused on the way Emeev/Mina line is. Emeev’s not gonna finish this fight and the over should really be set at o2.5 in correlation to his -200 ML. I also find value in Not Emeev ITD. I also played Mina +3.5 because you cannot feel confident judges will give Emeev 30-27s. Besides the fact, Mina is the one that’s gonna be pushing for a finish.

For the sake of breakdown — from what I see from Emeev is that his main game is clinching fighting and also slinging that right hand and not much else. He jabs here and there but he doesn’t really follow up anything behind that jab. He only throws that right hand. He reminds me of Rustam Khabilov. Again, from tape I’ve seen, he’s just a master at finding the clinch and throwing knees. He tries slows the pace down to his liking. Not much variety at all.

Mina on the other hand is a shoot-first, ask-questions later type of guy. He will lead the dance and throw wild hooks, kicks, and flying knees to force the action. He’s a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ so he doesn’t mind a wild scramble. If you end up ducking under a wild hook and take him down he’s fine with working his guard. He’s also claimed to be a Judo Black belt as well so he’s not afraid to go for his own TDs as well. He’s not a great wrestler but a very willing one.

Seeing how their style clashes, I think it could end up being a close match with some bias towards Mina. If Emeev plays his card the way he usually does, you can’t expect him to get 30-27s with a game plan revolving clinching up and containing Mina by throwing knees in Brazil against a Brazilian.

And being that Emeev only throws a right hand and maybe a couple jabs, I don’t see him he’ll keep Mina from coming at him like a madman. Judges love that shit. It’s the Diego Sanchez effect. And plus, Mina has been training at King’s MMA for this camp, you can expect him to be a lil sharper.

I’m on Mina. I think he’s going to push the action in the stand up and Emeev doesn’t throw with enough variety. He also isn’t going to be able to stay on top on Mina for long periods of time should he get TDs but I do think Emeev can win this if he’s able to fight his fight and wear Mina’s questionable gas tank down with the clinch. I rate Emeev’s clinch very highly he knows what he’s doing there.

Im high on the “goes the distance” prop for emeev/mina. I think it’s gonna be a slow boring fight.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Im high on the “goes the distance” prop for emeev/mina. I think it’s gonna be a slow boring fight.

I don’t hate that bet. I think you’re gonna have a few heart attacks if you’re expecting Mina to come in conservative. But I like your chances. You’re essentially hoping Emeev is able to force his game plan with the slight likelihood that Mina gets the nod via pushing the action.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Here’s an interesting stat:

Machida will face his 5th consecutive southpaw in Belfort.

He has not looked good in his last 4 fights, including the win over Anders.

Honestly not sure why the gap is so wide for this fight. I feel like they’re on the same level here. I took Belfort +3.5 and also his decision line at +800 in case they decide to have a friendly sparring match with eachother or it turns into a game of tag around the octagon courtesy of Machida.

 

[null]

Albini has short and very strong limbs and no neck. I’m sure Oleinik could catch him with sidechoke or something, but I think Oleinik has proven, that he’s a ridicilous sub threat, so I would be surprised, if Albini would try his luck on ground. Oleinik’s power is concern too, but skillwise Albini should have a huge advantage standing.

Albini has the tiny pinhead of a bantamweight on a super-heavyweight body. The Boa Constrictor might pop Albini's disproportionately shrunken head off of his sumo body if he gets his arms around it.

 

[iGnP]

As for Hermansson, he’ll run around the cage and pop his jabs out and probably win a decision. Brad Tavares was able to do that exact game plan.

I don’t know what Herman’s IQ is like but I don’t think he’ll want to spend much time in the clinch or try to take Leites down.

Leites’ only path to victory is to get in Herman’s face, eat a few punches and try to find the clinch, while lacing him his legs and working towards his back. Maybe catch an arm triangle like Cezar did. It could happen, but leaning towards Hermansson.

If you were in Vegas, and parlayed Jack Hermansson with o2.5, you’d get +195.

On 5dimes, his decision line is +187.

But the difference is that if Herman finishes after the 2.5, I still cash and the decision bet on 5dimes is a bust.

I remember a time where Leon Edwards decision paid out -120 (yuck) and parlaying the o2.5 with Edwards ML paid out +110. Leon ended up finishing the fight at 4:59 of the 3rd round and the vegas bet won, while the decision would have lost (not that I paid the juice on that 5d prop).

It kinda goes to show you where you are on the value spectrum if you’re wondering whether to take a prop at a certain price so there’s some food for thought.

which book allows the parlaying? ill be there in a few weeks

 

[Yotsuya]

Albini has the tiny pinhead of a bantamweight on a super-heavyweight body. The Boa Constrictor might pop Albini's disproportionately shrunken head off of his sumo body if he gets his arms around it.

Maybe he ventured too far into the Amazon, got caught by some Jivaro tribe and got his head shrunken.

Edit. Maybe he got that operation on purpose. Now he´s harder to hit and submit.

 

[MT6ix]

Such a tough fight to call. And the over is too juiced out to even consider.

But to add to the point, I believe Zaleski has shown really good leg lock sweep. He used it to get up several times iirc against Keita and that Russian guy. I don’t think the wrestling will be a major factor.

But seeing how it’s in Brazil, you can’t feel good about betting Strickland. Strickland can land the better shots and snipe Zaleski throwing those hard loopy punches and still lose, just like Tim Means.

And I agree that Zaleski has proven to go berserker in the waning seconds.

Strickland is really good at just sticking his jab out and letting you run into it. He backpeddles a lot and keeps his chin high but he’s just always measuring out his jab and swiping short left hooks. Man I’m going to have to Live Bet it.

I'm on Zakeski ML for 1.5u @ -125.

That leg lock sweep against Nakamura which he then turned into a suplex to get out was insane. I like the fact Zakeski always working to get up when taken down.

The thing I don't like about Strickland, really technical jab but doesn't step into his punches, so less power generated and his chin is too upright especially for a guy like Zaleski who is going to make it a firefight.

The thing that swayed me towards Zaleski was the Brazil factor and Strickland's fight with Court McGee was really closer than it should have been. Although Court McGee has a habit of making fights close.

Fellow poster Lefontes who lives in Brazil posted earlier that something along the lines that the Brazilian commission is in Barra where the fighters train, so fighters know all the judges. Lefontes is definitely our residency expert on Brazilian related matters.

 

[EndlessCritic]

I keep reiterating this, but I’m just not a fan of betting this card. I’m not doing any parlays on this one nor do I have any confident picks.

I’m kinda confused on the way Emeev/Mina line is. Emeev’s not gonna finish this fight and the over should really be set at o2.5 in correlation to his -200 ML. I also find value in Not Emeev ITD. I also played Mina +3.5 because you cannot feel confident judges will give Emeev 30-27s. Besides the fact, Mina is the one that’s gonna be pushing for a finish.

For the sake of breakdown — from what I see from Emeev is that his main game is clinching fighting and also slinging that right hand and not much else. He jabs here and there but he doesn’t really follow up anything behind that jab. He only throws that right hand. He reminds me of Rustam Khabilov. Again, from tape I’ve seen, he’s just a master at finding the clinch and throwing knees. He tries slows the pace down to his liking. Not much variety at all.

Mina on the other hand is a shoot-first, ask-questions later type of guy. He will lead the dance and throw wild hooks, kicks, and flying knees to force the action. He’s a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ so he doesn’t mind a wild scramble. If you end up ducking under a wild hook and take him down he’s fine with working his guard. He’s also claimed to be a Judo Black belt as well so he’s not afraid to go for his own TDs as well. He’s not a great wrestler but a very willing one.

Seeing how their style clashes, I think it could end up being a close match with some bias towards Mina. If Emeev plays his card the way he usually does, you can’t expect him to get 30-27s with a game plan revolving clinching up and containing Mina by throwing knees in Brazil against a Brazilian.

And being that Emeev only throws a right hand and maybe a couple jabs, I don’t see him he’ll keep Mina from coming at him like a madman. Judges love that shit. It’s the Diego Sanchez effect. And plus, Mina has been training at King’s MMA for this camp, you can expect him to be a lil sharper.

I’m on Mina. I think he’s going to push the action in the stand up and Emeev doesn’t throw with enough variety. He also isn’t going to be able to stay on top on Mina for long periods of time should he get TDs but I do think Emeev can win this if he’s able to fight his fight and wear Mina’s questionable gas tank down with the clinch. I rate Emeev’s clinch very highly he knows what he’s doing there.

Too much analysis.

Mina basically got his ass whooped against Akiyama, whereas Emeev has been beating elite 185'ers in Vasilevsky, Tokov, and totally dominated Alvey. Emeev wins.

 

[TITS]

Are any of you betting on Glory tonight as well? I'm looking to fatten up a parlay and can add Glory fights to my UFC 224/Bellator betslip(s), just don't know much about the fighters. Any suggestions?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Fun fact: Albini had a bit of an acting career before turning pro in mma.

 

[iGnP]

i didnt see it brought up but i think its a good reminder... Jacare had surgery on a torn pec immediately after the Robert Whittaker loss so anyone who thinks he didnt look good in that fight should prob consider that too

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Too much analysis.

Mina basically got his ass whooped against Akiyama, whereas Emeev has been beating elite 185'ers in Vasilevsky, Tokov, and totally dominated Alvey. Emeev wins.

I just wanted to bring to the table who they were.

But o1.5, Fight Goes Decision, and Emeev decision I can see cashing out.

 

[zeckdo]

One punch or elbow could change the entire thing.

this is a very basic argument that could be said about any heavyweight fight. dude looked terrible against Arlovski, and AA was coming off 5 STRAIGHT LOSSES.

Also the "HW fight, Brazilian event" didn't really help Golm at all when Brazilian judges gave Tim Johnson the decision a few months back, they could have given the wrong guy the decision easily, not like Johnson won convincingly.

 

[Sham5916910]

Too much analysis.

Mina basically got his ass whooped against Akiyama, whereas Emeev has been beating elite 185'ers in Vasilevsky, Tokov, and totally dominated Alvey. Emeev wins.

Disagree completely. Mina got whopped in r3 as he was gassed af. He won r1 and r2. But i agree emeev wins.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

this is a very basic argument that could be said about any heavyweight fight. dude looked terrible against Arlovski, and AA was coming off 5 STRAIGHT LOSSES.

Also the "HW fight, Brazilian event" didn't really help Golm at all when Brazilian judges gave Tim Johnson the decision a few months back, they could have given the wrong guy the decision easily, not like Johnson won convincingly.

It’s the basic approach when capping a HW fight outside the top 10. None of them are consistent and when they’re not consistent these outside factors come into play.

Facts are, he’s younger and I have to assume will look different each time out, while Olinik is into his 40s and has shown to gas.

With that said gun to my head I’ll pick old man to win.

And when I said Brazil event, I meant everything about it. Not just the judging. Like that gun fiasco they had earlier, no hot water, hot stadium or whatever.