UFC 224 - Nunes vs Pennington - Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

zeckdo said:
this is a very basic argument that could be said about any heavyweight fight. dude looked terrible against Arlovski, and AA was coming off 5 STRAIGHT LOSSES.

Also the "HW fight, Brazilian event" didn't really help Golm at all when Brazilian judges gave Tim Johnson the decision a few months back, they could have given the wrong guy the decision easily, not like Johnson won convincingly.
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Sure it was an underwhelming performance after his debut against Johnson, but more than Albini looking bad I thought Arlovski looked better than ever in that fight, and Albini was still just an inch away from landing some serious power hooks and step in elbows in that fight. If this stays standing I think Albini got this, so much faster hands and Oleinik is so wild with his striking and will gas come the second round if he can't get his groundgame going
On top of that he got 2 fucking treetrunks for legs, Oleinik will have to bring an axe to chop them down
 
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TITS said:
Are any of you betting on Glory tonight as well? I'm looking to fatten up a parlay and can add Glory fights to my UFC 224/Bellator betslip(s), just don't know much about the fighters. Any suggestions?
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Glory is half over already. I posted a lot of info and my bets in the Glory 53 thread here in the betting sub-forum.
 
Some eurobooks have Albini dec at 5.5-5.8. As someone noted, Oleinik came in lighter than usually, so maybe he’s been working on his cardio. Albini could be very hesitant to try to get a finish by gnp. Could go three rounds.
 
piglord said:
strickland isn't the most exciting motherfucker but he's fundamentally sound and has a crisp jab.

zaleski is exactly the type of guy who i like to back as an underdog to fight his ass off for your money and turn it into a scrap, but not as a fav. he likes to trade and leaves a lot of openings defensively.

i also think strickland is the superior wrestler, i wouldn't be surprised if he shoots late takedowns to steal rounds. if strickland can keep his composure with this rabid dog coming at him and an arena of brazilian fans screaming for his head, i think he should win this on the scorecards.
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Yep, great post. Strickland is one of the more underrated guys in the UFC imo. He'll never be a champ (or even top 5 probably) but he's well rounded, has a good chin and cardio, and has good fight IQ. I agree about Zaleski too but no way could I back him as a favorite against a guy with the overal skills of Strickland.
 
raketmannen said:
Sure it was an underwhelming performance after his debut against Johnson, but more than Albini looking bad I thought Arlovski looked better than ever in that fight, and Albini was still just an inch away from landing some serious power hooks and step in elbows in that fight. If this stays standing I think Albini got this, so much faster hands and Oleinik is so wild with his striking and will gas come the second round if he can't get his groundgame going
On top of that he got 2 fucking treetrunks for legs, Oleinik will have to bring an axe to chop them down
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Yeah, I think people are really underestimating just how bad Oleinik's cardio is at this point. It's great that he came in lighter and perhaps "worked on his cardio", but at 40 years old and (maybe just as importantly) with SIXTY SEVEN f'ing pro fights, you just aren't gonna make significant cardio gains no matter how much work you put in.

Mark my words, if this goes past 1.5 rounds, Oleinik WILL gas. And it will be OBVIOUS. He'll look like a statue out there and Albini will tee off.
 
iGnP said:
i didnt see it brought up but i think its a good reminder... Jacare had surgery on a torn pec immediately after the Robert Whittaker loss so anyone who thinks he didnt look good in that fight should prob consider that too
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Good point and I know we both had Rob. I tend to think that Rob is just that good and literally the worst matchup for Jacare.
 
Little bit of money coming in on Gastelum. Jacare down to -120 on 5d trending down. Keeping an eye on this one as the fight gets close.
 
$ coming in on Gastelum and Strickland on 5d. Gastelum down to +105, anyone who's been waiting to bet Jacare looks like now is the time. Strickland now the favorite.
 
timmyclax22 said:
Good point and I know we both had Rob. I tend to think that Rob is just that good and literally the worst matchup for Jacare.
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He is. But Jacare did look a little off in that fight imo. He looked great against Brunson though
 
iGnP said:
He is. But Jacare did look a little off in that fight imo. He looked great against Brunson though
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And he didn't even have hair yet.

Edit: Taking a stab at Jacare @1.88. 55%.
 
Whoa Alves -3.5 dropped to -125 for a few minutes there, had to hit that. Still value at -145 imo. He could finish for sure or win a lopsided dec here.
 
mkess101 said:
Whoa Alves -3.5 dropped to -125 for a few minutes there, had to hit that. Still value at -145 imo. He could finish for sure or win a lopsided dec here.
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If he doesn't finish, he could easily lose the third bc he's gassed from defending takedowns. Might as well play the ITD line imo
 
Guess I am missing what Mina has shown on tape. On paper he has dangerous bjj, but we really haven't seen anything in a fight and Emeev has shown great grappling. Given he's a world sambo champ if it hits the ground he will be on top. His constant pressure isn't going to give Mina room to explode forward with his bursts and he is going to gas hard. Emeev wins comfortably IMO and at -155 he is probably the 2nd best bet on the card to Alves. I am heavy on both. I actually like Emeev -3.5 at +100 as well, thinking he clearly wins all three rounds or finishes late.
 
late money coming in on leites, didn't expect that. hermansson is playable as a slight fav imo.
 
Switched sides to Belfort, my instincts are telling me he KOs Machida in RD1 and I'm comfortable with that. Still like Emeev, Hermansson, Lineker, and Alves. To a lesser extent, like Ramos and Albini. Then Zaleski and Gastelum. Dern should win but I just really dont like her. That Roberson fight is a real tough one.
 
iGnP said:
If he doesn't finish, he could easily lose the third bc he's gassed from defending takedowns. Might as well play the ITD line imo
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Possibly, but even if gassed Aliev doesn't seem to have the skills to me to make him pay. A tired Alves still maybe outstrikes Aliev honestly.
 
Oleynik vs Albini.
A damn old russian guy fighting in Brazil against a damn heavy brazilian baby.
I do not doubt Oleynik's toughness, but if he does not get a sub U1.5 he will really gas hard, just as mkess said.

The ITD line isn't too bad at 1.40, and it's a heavyweight fight after all.
 
Lineker/Dern/Souza parlay 300 to win 900 lesssgoo
 
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