UFC 225 PBP/Discussion

Shout out to Joseph Benavidez for fucking up multiple parlays lol #salt
 
The most impressive thing to me last night was Covington's cardio. I had him pre-fight, but bought out after rd 2 by betting RDA live because I didn't think there was a prayer Colby's cardio would hold up at that pace. Before the fight, I had figured on him probably winning rds 1-3 but then holding on for dear life as RDA came back to win rds 4 and 5 as Colby tired. Well, he came out of the gates at an even more blistering pace than I predicted, at which point I thought he wouldn't just slow down, he'd gas badly by rd 4 and RDA might stop him. The fact that Colby fought with that much pressure for almost the entire fight was something else. I didn't think he was capable of that.

I also think something not being talked about as much is how good his chin is. You can't fight the way he does without being able to just walk through punches, because putting that much forward pressure on means you are gonna get hit (in some ways like Ferguson, though obviously Colby uses a more grappling-centric type of pressure and with Tony it's striking). It will be very interesting to see what happens against a much bigger puncher in Woodley. I have some thoughts for sure, but will hold off obviously until lines released.

Whitaker probably didn't deserve to win, should have been a draw imo. But man did he show serious heart and toughness. Yoel hits almost anyone else like that, it's a wrap. Bobby showed some amazing recovery.
 
mkess101 said:
The most impressive thing to me last night was Covington's cardio. I had him pre-fight, but bought out after rd 2 by betting RDA live because I didn't think there was a prayer Colby's cardio would hold up at that pace. Before the fight, I had figured on him probably winning rds 1-3 but then holding on for dear life as RDA came back to win rds 4 and 5 as Colby tired. Well, he came out of the gates at an even more blistering pace than I predicted, at which point I thought he wouldn't just slow down, he'd gas badly by rd 4 and RDA might stop him. The fact that Colby fought with that much pressure for almost the entire fight was something else. I didn't think he was capable of that.

I also think something not being talked about as much is how good his chin is. You can't fight the way he does without being able to just walk through punches, because putting that much forward pressure on means you are gonna get hit (in some ways like Ferguson, though obviously Colby uses a more grappling-centric type of pressure and with Tony it's striking). It will be very interesting to see what happens against a much bigger puncher in Woodley. I have some thoughts for sure, but will hold off obviously until lines released.

Whitaker probably didn't deserve to win, should have been a draw imo. But man did he show serious heart and toughness. Yoel hits almost anyone else like that, it's a wrap. Bobby showed some amazing recovery.
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Funny did the same thing. Hit RDA to cover my loss for Colby around R2, sensing also Colby losing confidence and RDA would piece him up. But 30 seconds later or so I changed my mind as Colby showed he was still in it, and managed to get 0.45 units profit just from closing the bet on RDA and keeping the original colby bet alive. He looked fantastic, and RDA tired alot. He really got limited alot as expected, but Colby´s strikes and punches had some decent power in them, he threw alot. That worked really well for him, keeping RDA on the defensive. I definitely feel after seeing this that hés a worse khabib grapling wise, but with better striking, and his cardio is really well and like you pointed out his chin is pretty durable.

Whittaker recovered super well, he was in such desperation mode yet knew what he had to do to try stay in the fight, and luckily yoel was too tired to rush after him when whittaker just started walking away from him. Very lucky that he got the win. Phew. Whether thats deserved or not.
 
Pettis the only real dog to cash? Good night for the favourites.
 
*** Pants Height Update ***

With Megan Anderson losing tonight, SPHA fighters are now 7-2 in 2018.
 
I have a feeling Mike Jackson is going to end up in a hole in the desert.
 
+13u risking 31u. I upped the ante after few disciplined nights and it paid off. 3/4 splits went my way. I cought Gadelha at 1.5 (thanks bet_at_home.com), but would have happily traded her for Romero dog money.
 
did anyone see this?



noted for future crazy line shifts
 
iGnP said:
did anyone see this?



noted for future crazy line shifts
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In the end though, does it really help/hurt us at all? You have this case where someone got inside info and loaded up on Carla because of it (those who bet her ML still lost, but those who took her +3.5 cashed--I'm guessing more was lost on the ML even just on 5d than was won on the props but no way to know for sure) but of course none of us got the info until after. But then you had a giant swing like this on McDonald right before the Lineker fight. Maybe not this extreme but close. And it turns out it was just someone loading up on McDonald for no reason and he got starched early. Nothing was wrong with Lineker, it was just a case of how much lines can be moved in MMA with the relative limited amount of action.

So the next time we see a giant line swing like this, won't we all just wonder if it's because of something related to one of the fighters, or if it's simply huge late action for no real reason on one of them? And in this case, despite not having all the relevant info, I was actually helped by it. I was mostly on Claudia -3.5 before the big line swings, but added a bunch to her ML when the big shift happened. Turns out I profited on the fight when I'd have lost without the huge line swing.

I'm not saying we should ignore it. I just don't know how we accurately put this to use? I'm definitely open to ideas though, if anyone has better insight than I do.
 
mkess101 said:
In the end though, does it really help/hurt us at all? You have this case where someone got inside info and loaded up on Carla because of it (those who bet her ML still lost, but those who took her +3.5 cashed--I'm guessing more was lost on the ML even just on 5d than was won on the props but no way to know for sure) but of course none of us got the info until after. But then you had a giant swing like this on McDonald right before the Lineker fight. Maybe not this extreme but close. And it turns out it was just someone loading up on McDonald for no reason and he got starched early. Nothing was wrong with Lineker, it was just a case of how much lines can be moved in MMA with the relative limited amount of action.

So the next time we see a giant line swing like this, won't we all just wonder if it's because of something related to one of the fighters, or if it's simply huge late action for no real reason on one of them? And in this case, despite not having all the relevant info, I was actually helped by it. I was mostly on Claudia -3.5 before the big line swings, but added a bunch to her ML when the big shift happened. Turns out I profited on the fight when I'd have lost without the huge line swing.

I'm not saying we should ignore it. I just don't know how we accurately put this to use? I'm definitely open to ideas though, if anyone has better insight than I do.
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was pretty easy to tell something was up seeing the volume and % change of price, and that it wasn't just random money coming in. what confused ppl was whether it could be credible or not i think. a lot of ppl were on claudia and were probably just spooked fueling speculation that it's just late money and that everything is ok.
ppl are often emotionally attached to there bets, it reminds me of how ppl react when a big price change happens on a currency market and the price goes against their trade, they want to hold on to hope. and since price movement like this is rare in mma it leads to more panic and speculation I think. I'm more interested in where the initial action came in on carla and how/who the info got leaked too. probably her team.

out of interest did anyone see if prices shortened on US books or euro books first. i didn't have time to check. the price on the exchanges moved very quickly and there was comparatively HUGE volume on them compared to normal so im wondering if ppl who had info had access to them as it might go under the radar more than a bookmaker.
 
Roads55 said:
was pretty easy to tell something was up seeing the volume and % change of price, and that it wasn't just random money coming in. what confused ppl was whether it could be credible or not i think. a lot of ppl were on claudia and were probably just spooked fueling speculation that it's just late money and that everything is ok.
ppl are often emotionally attached to there bets, it reminds me of how ppl react when a big price change happens on a currency market and the price goes against their trade, they want to hold on to hope. and since price movement like this is rare in mma it leads to more panic and speculation I think. I'm more interested in where the initial action came in on carla and how/who the info got leaked too. probably her team.

out of interest did anyone see if prices shortened on US books or euro books first. i didn't have time to check. the price on the exchanges moved very quickly and there was comparatively HUGE volume on them compared to normal so im wondering if ppl who had info had access to them as it might go under the radar more than a bookmaker.
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Yeah I'd like to know who got the info first and where it came from, but I'd bet we will never know. I don't follow the exchanges, so you are right in that's probably a better indicator of whether something is truly up, or if it's just a couple huge bettors moving lines just before the fight.

The thing is, you have to be careful. I remember everyone similarly freaking out about Lineker/McDonald as that line swung wildly toward McDonald in the hour leading up to the fight. If you panicked and bailed on your Lineker bet there, you made a huge mistake. Nothing was up, there just happened to be a ton of late $ come in on Mayday last minute. I stood my ground and even added to Lineker, and made bank. So you just never know really do you?
 
Lando said:
Damn. Had a multi on gadelha, holly decision, whittaker and colby decision. Changed colby for rda last minute and missed out on a couple thousand bucks
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Feel your pain. Initially had Colby, then talked myself out of it and loaded up on RDA. Then how RDA lost was all based on my gut instinct for picking Colby in the first place (naturally bigger man, RDA no ko power at 170, favorable match-ups at 170). When RDA sprinted to the ring I was cursing under my breath - Colby clearly got to him. The man wasted energy he didn't need to waste.

And Colby's gameplan was to march forward into the clinch. Not shoot, just march. Everytime RDA got away from the fence he had many opportunities to fire off combos before he got to the other side. Instead, he almost conceded the fence position about 70% of the time. After R1 I knew I would probably lose a lot of money.

Oh well. Really good intel on both for future fights. On to Tuesday Night!
 
Tony J said:
Feel your pain. Initially had Colby, then talked myself out of it and loaded up on RDA. Then how RDA lost was all based on my gut instinct for picking Colby in the first place (naturally bigger man, RDA no ko power at 170, favorable match-ups at 170). When RDA sprinted to the ring I was cursing under my breath - Colby clearly got to him. The man wasted energy he didn't need to waste.

And Colby's gameplan was to march forward into the clinch. Not shoot, just march. Everytime RDA got away from the fence he had many opportunities to fire off combos before he got to the other side. Instead, he almost conceded the fence position about 70% of the time. After R1 I knew I would probably lose a lot of money.

Oh well. Really good intel on both for future fights. On to Tuesday Night!
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I got excited that he could get off the fence initially, but after round 2 I knew it was all over. Kept backing himself up and had no pepper on the punches.
Always go with your gut lol. Won 1k off Horn getting smoked though so a good weekend all up
 
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