Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Karmello, Jul 7, 2018.
DC opened -145 on Bovada LOL
Lost the entirety of my bankroll last night. I’m stepping away from the game. Had such a great feeling and thought my bets were solid. 7 underdogs hit last night, Jesus Christ. Had some great events but I am just not a long term winner, if anything I am slowly losing $ . Shits fun tho
Blaydes has done a lot more (such as actually be in the cage and win fights) to earn a title shot vs Lesnar who is in another "entertainment" field due to a PED suspension. I have zero interest in seeing Brock vs DC and will find something more productive to do with my evening when they fight
The 7 underdogs and 4 favorite wins were exactly the opposite of what we would normally expect. Maybe the odds makers aren't as sharp as they used to be or the sport is just more random now which will make it hard to find "safe" plays. There were a lot of losers last night.
What do you mean earn a title shot vs Brock? DC is the champion now. Him knocking out Stipe in the first round doesn't make you want to see him vs anyone?
Holy shit, someone probably will get fired over that LOL.
Him saying "earn a title shot vs Brock" isn't worded as well as it could be. He doesn't mean Blaydes fighting Brock for the title. He's saying Blaydes has done more than Brock to earn the title shot vs DC.
Dc still -175 on Bovada
I can’t get in that site or else I would max bet that line
Yes you are correct. I should have worded it "Blaydes has done a lot more to earn a title shot compared to Lesnar who has been on the sidelines." Thanks for the correction. I will remember not to use the term "versus" like that when discussing fights.
Honestly a lot of you guys need to scale back plays a bit, pay less juice while looking for the dog plays, and not spread yourself so thin placing what amount to hedging bets on your bigger plays.
I see a lot of people messing up in regards to that. I am not a savant but I promise that I am a long term pretty decent $$$ winner and that is what I follow.
I also look to hit nice live odds when after round 1 the better conditioned or dynamic fighter goes to +money (Last night Milleander, & Pettis) didn’t bet on Perry because I was on him pre fight but they were all +money after the first round where I knew Curtis was the more dangerous fighter and I didn’t think Griffin would have the juice to take him down as easily going forward. Chiesa, missed weight, looked awful on the feet & was tired from running away from Pettis so dropped a nice amount on him,
Reevaluate start limiting plays and look for +money plays where the odds makers fuck up (Whittmire vs Moyle holy shit THANK YOU) and you will start to crush.
The problem for me is that the odds makers don't fuck up that often. Last night was a "once in several years" event (all dogs winning on the main card and going 7-4 overall). And to be blunt...I'm not as good at capping fights as the odds makers. I can pick the + money plays sometimes but not enough to make it profitable and most others can't either. Also remember that Felder opened as an underdog so it wasn't the odds makers that screwed that one up it was the public who bet him down to a favorite of -150. But considering Felder's last three fights I understand why so many played him.
Oddsmakers mess up every event, multiple times.
Felder opened at over +200 and arguably won that fight with one arm. And you think the public made a mistake on that?
Dc opens at -145 agaisnt Brock Lesnar? What a joke.
Did costa look like a -400 last night? How about assuncao? He looked like he should’ve been the -400 and was around -170
I was watching with my friend who is trying to get into MMA betting & she said she wanted to get something really risky for fun so I locked in a 3 way parlay between Lewis Cormier & Perry. $5 for $111
Actually she won $513 net. I'm offing myself for those absurd bets actually working
Courteous Curtis was the anchor of multiple parlays of mine, unfortunately some of those parlays included Ngannou, Stipe, and Saki. The one I had for Millender/Pettis/Costa paid around $60.
No I thought Felder was pretty good bet considering his last three wins and was surprised (like many) that he opened at +200 but in the end anyone who put money on him lost.
I haven't really thought much about Lesnar and DC. Lesnar is a big question mark considering how long he has been out of the sport, his steroid use, and his health problems. If he comes in healthy, well trained, and at 265 lbs or bigger I think he could make it competitive against DC. DC should be the favorite and will probably win the fight but I wouldn't be willing to bet -300 on it.
Lesnar never reacted well to getting hit. That is clearly the biggest issue he's had. Even shots that don't rock him, he turtles or shrinks away.
I don't think bullrushing DC for a takedown that isn't properly set up is going to work, even for 280 lb Lesnar. Which means in order to get the TD he's gonna have to strike for a bit. Which means he probably gets hit. Which means him most likely not reacting well to it.
Started the night feeling like a genius, "No way I'm losing!" I thought to myself. I had 6 dogs. Cormier, Lewis, Perry, Klose Griffin, Burns and loved each play. Played Saki -130, Chiesa -160, Assuncao -175 and didnt like any of them come fght time besides Saki. Bet Costa KO. Didnt bet Moyle. Was feelin really stupid after Burns and Griffin lost back 2 back. Then Klose won and I felt slightly better but then immediately felt stupid again doubting Assuncao lol. Hall looked better than I expected but I was still happy betting Costa KO. Then the Saki fight devastated my spirit to the point I thought of no return. Chiesa cosigned Saki and I offically broke the pain threshold were I stopped feeling lol. Then my 3 s Perry, Lewis and Cormier save the god damn day and I feel like a genius again. Full circle of emotions
-16u weekend. Marquez robbery caused 15 unit swing for me. Before this I had an obviously partly lucky 40u run with 56% roi and, so I had this coming. I’m really happy for Rountree, Meerschaert, Perry and Modafferi obvilously too, but Cormier fucking sucks.
Ncannou laid the biggest egg I've ever seen. He is sportsbook poison, along with Usman.
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